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115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 10:36 pm #3087
I was just reworking the Hollister connection, when I noticed no quakes had occurred in California today according to the USGS map. When I checked EMSC, the last event was a 2.6 in Central California at 17:01 UTC yesterday… I don’t recall seeing it this quiet before, so perhaps we should keep an eye on Hollister after all !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 12, 2017 at 8:54 pm #3081Hey Chris,
I noticed a familiar name mentioned in SO news again today… I use to like watching this show 🙂
Ben said NASA are “now” looking into ways of detecting electric signals in the Earth to try and find earthquakes. I nearly fell out of my chair Laughing, especially as the article followed your slot… another 10 years and they might get around to investigating the terminator 🙂
I mentioned having trouble with all the numbers in my head… Well, after the 7.2 occurred in Iran I realised I had been chasing my tail again. Dawn on the 7.2 epicentre at 02:02 UTC = Solar Noon on my Bonin Islands Forecast. Sunrise on the epicentre at 03:29 UTC = Dusk on my Yukon forecast and Dawn on my Bulgaria forecast. Dusk on the epicentre at 15:22 UTC = Dawn in Anchorage, Alaska, “Your” forecast, and mine two weeks prior. Solar Noon on the epicentre at 08:42 UTC = Sunset in Ryukyu Islands and Dusk in Hokkaido, both these are my active forecasts too!. You know how this works, my forecasts are all derived from ACE data contact times. In effect, had I got the pieces in the right order, it would have shown that ACE found the 7.2… I think I’ll change the subject before I start to laugh or cry again!
The up side to this event occurring… there is always a parallel T connection event within the following few days. The sun’s current lateral position is favourable for high mag events in the Japan / Alaska regions.
Well done again for getting another hit… I found some times for you to play with, as thanks for your kind words, plus I thought you might be in bed when some of these contacts occurred…
1/11 – 08:02 UTC
2/11 – 08:56 UTC
4/11 – 10:44 UTC
6/11 – 12:46 UTC
9/11 – 15:50 UTC
10/11 – 16:42 UTCThey all relate to the “moon” terminator on Java, there’s not much in the way of solar contacts yet. But if there is any future TEC / terminator interactions in this region… you know better than I what to watch for!
The times are genuine, most of these are included in my “chase my tail” forecasts… and look what I missed 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 11, 2017 at 8:07 pm #3063Chris,
Once again I am very pleased for you… Not only is it remarkable that you hit two 6+ earthquakes in 4 days, but you also did it whilst the sun was flat-lined!. I have always argued the terminator connection since doing a paper on the “Maunder Minimum” many years ago… if you are not familiar with this period, there is a good explanation on Wikipedia. If memory serves me right, this was a 70 year period beginning in the mid Seventeenth century, during which no sunspots of any significance were observed. Yet during this period millions of people died due to multiple 8+ earthquakes and resulting Tsunamis… solar output was so low that it caused a mini ice age. The sun goes through its many cycles, its distance from Earth is constantly changing, so solar output is constantly changing. But for billions of years, one thing has always remained the same, the Sunrise and Sunset terminator… they have, and always will be present day after day !!
I do have trust issues, but it is mostly with elements of the scientific community. I have learned there are people out there, who are only interested in promoting their careers. Others are happy with how thing are, and will go to extraordinary lengths to prevent change. And there are many that will not entertain you because you are not within the scientific circle… lots of Bill and Teds out there I assure you.
In essence, we are both amateurs in a science subject that is way above our heads. I have to self interpret a lot of the data I use for correlations. For instance I truly don’t know if the Infrared spectrum plays a part in what I see, because nobody has investigated this and given me an alternative. But it fits the picture, and without it I couldn’t get this to work… my hopes have always been to work as a citizen science team, and get some of these issues ironed out!
I make a lot of mistakes these days, probably because I have a lot of figures running round in my head all the time, and less brain capacity than I used to have to sort them out. But Yes, now you have your eye on the ball so to speak, let us continue our endeavour and see where it leads us… thank you again for your kind words!
Gimber Minimum… has a nice ring to it 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 10, 2017 at 5:17 pm #3048Going off today’s activity in Saumlaki… I’d say you were in the right spot !
When I post a forecast, I print it out and blue tack it to the wall. I noticed a 5.8 West Chile Rise at 13:57 UTC and felt sure I had predicted it. An hour ago I found it behind the central heating radiator… it had fallen off the wall. I’ve missed two big hits this week because of dumb mistakes… don’t use blue tack on your print outs 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 9, 2017 at 9:59 pm #3041Hey Chris,
I checked CA contacts and found 3 Sunrise, 3 Solar Noon’s and 1 Dawn… to be honest, there is nothing here to get exited about yet. It was a good combination, but I believe the proton increase is “now” attributed to the Auckland Islands region. I was demonstrating in real-time how I put things together, but when you compare this to previously compiled data… you sometimes find a different story. California is worth keeping in the books because if anything occurs in Auckland, it has a parallel terminator connection. Lest this occurs, from “my” point of view I would need more substantial data to follow it further.
If I see anymore moon / terminator combinations I’ll let you know, and see if we can find just cause to keep on it!
Izu Island quakes have been bugging me all day 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 8, 2017 at 6:47 pm #3031Chris,
I see you made the SO news… and got yourself a rep as a quake hunter 🙂 well done.
You have often told me how your mind works… a significant signal has appeared in the ACE data, and I thought you might want to tag along on this one, and see how my mind works!
If you miss this in the next few hours, you can catch it in the 24 hour window. There is a spike in the EPAMp data at 14:45 UTC, the trace for 1 hour either side of the spike is stable (instability after contact usually means entering the dark zone!). The spike is in more than one trace, so it has formed from contact with a high energy source, if we relate this to the terminator… higher energies are more associated with Dawn / Sunrise. Any anomaly within the lithosphere will be rotating East with the Earth, the Dawn / Sunrise thresholds are heading West. If one of these thresholds has made contact with an anomaly, it is not going to want to let it go… similar to trying to pulling two magnets apart. The wavelength connection will eventually be stretched to the limit, and a backlash reaction will occur when contact is finally broken. The terminator returns to equilibrium, like a stretched rubber band returning to its moulded form… and the anomaly retains the energy from last contact.
Because I believe this to be the terminator and a product of the sun, I deduct 8 minutes from the recorded time making it 14:37 UTC. There are only 2 usual suspects matching this time on the Dawn / Sunrise threshold. One is the Yukon territories, Canada which had a 4+ two days ago on approx 140’W (same longitude as Dawn at this time!)… and the other is Sunrise in West Coast California, which also extends into Montana.
Preceding the contact spike, you will notice an increase in proton levels commencing at 12:00 UTC. When I look at my map at this time, I see that the centre of the moon is in the longitude proximity of West Coast California… this being the moon, I do not deduct 8 minutes.
The longitude of the moon at 12:00 UTC = 121.500’W, if I triangulate this longitude with the Sunrise contact in CA at 14:37 UTC… I end up on 121.500’W – 36.848 San Juan Bautista / Hollister…
Similar moon / terminator combinations are going to occur over the next 3 days, as the moon transits the T belts moving from the night region into day. Another combination opportunity usually occurs when the moon is entering the region of Sunset / Dusk.
It doesn’t necessarily mean an event will happen here, the contact is new to me, so without more data suggesting differently, this combination can be regarded as hypothetical. It might be interesting to keep an eye on this region, but the down side is the ACE satellite, there is no coverage for California at Sunset / Dusk because they transfer the station to DSCOVR… or so I am told 😉
I know this works because three of the hits I have in the BIG room, are attributed to this method. Its just a question of knowing where or where not to adjust time, and working out how the combination fits with the contacts.
The usual suspects on my radar at the moment include Myanmar, Bolivia and Hokkaido… do you have anything lined up Chris ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 8, 2017 at 12:12 am #3026Don’t worry about the wrongs… savour what you have accomplished today. You actually hit 2 targets within 13 hours, you worked and earned Fiji… only prediction protocol denies you official recognition!
I would print out the published quakes on EMSC, and hang them on your wall. They will give you inspiration, and the next time somebody tells you Earthquakes are unpredictable… you will have a strong case to argue 🙂
It is unfortunate that I have developed a lot of miss trust of people, through my many experiences. I don’t really know you, but you portray a passion to do the right thing for the community and humanity… I am therefore pleased to be in good company for a change 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 7, 2017 at 11:31 pm #3024Chris,
I am extremely pleased for you… you stuck at this, and kept punching out the data, you truly earned a hit
In a small corner of the UK, my family and I are toasting your success tonight
You finally found your “own” key… welcome to the “BIG” room 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 7, 2017 at 10:19 pm #3022Hey Chris,
You had a close call with that 5.7 Fiji quake 🙁 you missed the mag, but you “where” in the right place… that’s what counts!
The problem with all data formats relating to the sun, is that they are developed to tell you what the “sun is doing”… not the terminator or the moon. The only way to determine the different elements is to compile many hours and days of data, only then can you tease out which contact is related to which element. Plus each contact can lead you to eight different possibilities, so there is also an elimination process. The best way to overcome this is to include a margin of error, like I noticed you had done with your last forecast. The Earth rotates 2 degrees in 8 minutes, this equates to a terrestrial distance of 222.32 km’s or 138.14 miles, so forecasting with a 250 km margin easily covers an 8 minute offset !
The spectral range I have been speculating on is within the border region of visible and Infrared. I am not a scientist, but my own experimentation lead me to this conclusion… contacts are being detected due to a sudden change in frequency. In your fledgling hypothesis, you describe how the TEC anomalies are reacting to the advancing moon terminator threshold. When the threshold reaches the TEC location, it dissipates the anomaly… why is this ?. The TEC has been in moonlight for hours, even up to the threshold point, it is still considered visible moonlight. The only difference is, photons of light at the threshold are being stretched… the frequency of visible light is changing at this point.
Chris… WOW!, I think you just got a hit in P.N.G.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 5, 2017 at 11:48 pm #3012Chris, my last pitch… 5.0 Pucallpa, Peru
Dawn 09:15 UTC – Sunset Buru 6.3 epicentre 09:15 UTC
Sunrise 10:30 UTC – Dusk Buru 6.3 epicentre 10:30 UTC
Sunset 22:52 UTC – Dusk Grenada 5.4 epicentre 22:52 UTC
…… Sunrise on 101.220’E – 5.367’S Mentawai Region 22:52 UTCIt is working its way to Sumatra !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 5, 2017 at 5:40 pm #3010Counselor,
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I ran a T sequence on the 5.4 Grenada, it has Sunset / Dusk times as 21:39 – 22:52 UTC Nov 5. The opposite terminator contact to these times are Dawn / Sunrise on 101.220’E – 5.367’S Mentawai region, South Sumatra. It doesn’t mean an event will occur, but do you have it “covered” if there is ?… just a heads up, could be reminiscent of my Peru / Buru scenario!…115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 4, 2017 at 1:22 pm #30002017-11-04 09:00:19 UTC – M 6.8 NE OF HIHIFO, TONGA … 173.219’W – 15.353’S
Sunset on stated co-ordinates Hihifo, Tonga … 05:39 UTC, Nov 4
Sunrise on 14.370’E – 41.870’N Agnone, Central Italy … 05:39 UTC, Nov 4Each contact with a big hitter like this one, is adding a little more energy to an anomaly within the central Italian Belt. This region is currently not showing “significant” contact in ACE data… when this changes, the stored energy will have reached trigger levels (self-interpretation!)
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 2, 2017 at 10:11 pm #2995Hi Ben,
I believe the terminator thresholds have a finite point in frequency, capable of charging electromagnetic anomalies within the lithosphere, similar to the charging of a solar cell. Each pass of the terminator day after day, is adding a little extra energy to subsurface anomalies. It is true that these anomalies will be in sunlight for many hours in a day. But the finite point I refer to, I would describe as something similar to the point the visible range of the electromagnetic spectrum, changes to infrared. We cannot see infrared, nor can we see the last range of nm’s before the change to infrared… it is within this portion I believe the terminator is causing a reaction!It seems unbeknown to most people (including NOAA), that these reactions are being detected by the ACE satellite, and displayed in its varying formats. Aspect changes, structural increases / decreases, data feed breaks etc, are giving away the location of a potential seismic anomaly. ACE is recording the interactions of the terminator with the lithosphere… the terminator is moving across the Earth like a metal detector, and ACE is the gauge on the handle telling you how strong the signal is!. Unfortunately, this metal detector is of global proportions. To use an analogy… if you actually had a metal detector with a sensor head the width of a football field, and you walk from one side of the field to the other. Somewhere along the way you detect a signal, but the width of the sensor head means this could be anywhere from left field, right field or centre field… coming from the opposite direction would only give the same result. The answer is to walk the field with the sensor head angled diagonally at 90 degrees, detect the signal and spray paint a line parallel to the sensor head. Coming from the other side of the field, the angle of the head will be diagonally opposite. As the head starts to cross the painted line, there will be a point that the signal is detected again, paint another line and you have a cross… X marks the spot!
From late fall to late spring, the Sunrise, Sunset, Dawn and Dusk terminator thresholds are angled relative to Earth’s polar longitudes. The Dawn / Sunrise thresholds cross the Earth with Southern dominance, followed hours later by Sunset / Dusk with Northern Dominance, they are in fact crossing the field at different angles. Catch an ACE sunrise signal, draw a line on a map, wait for another signal at Sunset, draw a line and you have a cross… if the signals repeat over several days on the same cross, you have a potential seismic event. I make it sound simpler than it actually is… but that’s my methodology
It is my opinion that the ACE satellite is the key to finding potentially dangerous earthquakes, my efforts at forecasting mostly fail because there are to many crosses for one person to monitor all the time, and the satellite feed stops, means I can sometimes only work with one direction up the field. If this method was given true investigative time… I’m sure its potential would be very clear!
Hope this makes sense, and really appreciate your message… made my day 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 1, 2017 at 10:39 pm #2987Oh! Counselor, Why didn’t you post the forecast ?, if you are confident that you have sufficient data suggesting possible seismic activity at these locations… you should post. There is no shame in being wrong before the eyes of others, and its not like you are posting all the time like some people do here 🙂 anyway, you have my congrats on achieving a “personal” best.
I watched SO news today, but my PC is having sound issues… I’ll catch the L shells article again when I get fixed up.
I was considering this morning, reliance on determining locations using ACE data has to be accurate. Our global time difference suggests some of the good contacts will have past through the 6 hour window whilst you are still in bed!. This being the case, I noted a structure in the thete, Bz range with a termination time of 09:10 UTC… consider this as a supporting observation 🙂
I don’t know if you will catch this in time, but checking 09:10 UTC on your map also shows the Dusk (night) threshold on Southern Honshu. At the time of this post, there is a Phi contact at 21:05 UTC on the Ace monitor, it is Sunrise on Southern Honshu… these are the kind of correlations I look for. If more contacts continue over the coming days, then you have accumulated sufficient data to suggest possible seismic activity.
There is a preceding Phi contact at 20:55 UTC, this is Hokkaido… the next location I will be forecasting 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 31, 2017 at 11:11 pm #2983Counselor,
I believe I may have stumbled onto a classic opportunity here… whilst finishing my cup of tea 🙂I don’t know if you have noticed, but the ACE data feed stopped at 19:48 UTC, I have a significant Phi contact logged as 19:48 UTC Oct 25th. when I tested this on two maps, the Sunrise terminator threshold pivots on 147.853’E – 0.910’S Admiralty Islands. Yesterday (30th), the data feed stopped at 17:28 UTC (Sunrise on Kalgin Island, Alaska !), it resumed again at 18:38 UTC, at this time it was Dawn on the same co-ordinates on Admiralty Islands!. I have just run a T sequence and found Sunset at this location occurred “yesterday” at 07:56 UTC. This is the time of a significant contact I referred to you about, related to Chile in my first post above. The contact may also have been significant because the sun was on 56.916’E longitude, this is solar Noon and the same longitude as the 5.8 and 6.0 Franz Josef land events!
I think you should practice on this one, and forecast accordingly if you find future data to be sound… I got a 6.3 today so this will keep me happy for a while 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterOctober 31, 2017 at 7:43 pm #2981Counselor,
Thank you for your kind words, my current track record doesn’t really do them justice… but thank you anyway. If it is any help with your forecast practice, I have logged all ACE contacts since October 10th, and hits on 152 – 153’W longitude are ahead by a long shot (one reason I forecast P.A.R)… but this could also be 27 – 28’E. It doesn’t guarantee a seismic contact, but might be worth watching for increased pressure or TEC’s etc.Perhaps when you have more time in winter, we can do a little collaborating… and find us a quake!
Happy Halloween 🙂
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