Hey I caught something, a possible “asterisk” if you will…
When I made this prediction there were only a few quakes in this region, all below 6.0M.
However, after I posted this forecast the USGS upgraded one of these quakes to a 6.0M exactly. Since I only get emails for 6.0M+ events, I didn’t get the email until afterwards. I personally still call it a success, but let the ball bounce where it may. 🙂
I was wondering if we could simply start discussion threads, seemed like this area was designated for forecasting.
That’s good stuff to know about the Earth’s core, i wasn’t even aware of that, definitely wanna check it out now. 🙂
Mostly I just try to time transequatorial Coronal Holes with planetary alignments – like the one we’re having now lol! Geomagnetic instability (Planetary K Index) seems to mitigate the forces from coronal holes so if there’s yellow or red bars it means less significant interactions in the lithosphere. Just my uneducated guess, but I imagine that these forces travel via flux transfer events?
FYI I have zero formal education, for my 16th birthday my dad got me a job and I haven’t seen the inside of a classroom since. I just see what I see and know what I know almost exclusively from my 10 years of being on the internet. I’m pretty much self-taught everything.
I knew there would be significant planetary geometry in April, so I started looking closer at Stereo-A (iSWA) for incoming CH forces. I also use PFSS a lot to try and determine which polarity the force is so I can translate that factor to magnitude. Negative (S-) CH forces are significantly stronger, but we were only seeing N+ forces for quite some time, so I decided to wait until I knew there was a trans-equatorial S- that would relatively coincide with one of the alignments. Also keeping mind that it had been pretty quiet in recent months, therefore more pressure build up in the Earth. The 20th was the first alignment (Sun-Mercury-Earth) with S- influence, so that’s when I started my watch period even though it actually began facing us on the 19th – that was an “uh-oh” moment for me because it came a day earlier than my watch period. The New Moon/Lunar Perigee is to occur on April 26-27 as well, which was to close out my allotted watch period. However, this will occur as the SPF on the earth facing sun will go back to N+, and although N+ forces are weaker, I think there’s something to be said for SPF force changes (the change itself) triggering seismic events – almost like whiplash I guess? There was a small flare or CME (can’t recall) that we were expecting as well, so I factored that into the magnitude since geomagnetic instability seems to fizz out the direct line to CH forces. I had also been following the deep <=100km events above 4.5 in the area and tracing their movements. Also, after a suggestion from Hook Echo, I started looking at deep quakes in the Vanuatu/Fiji area as well, which I’ll continue to do moving forward, cool stuff!
I think that’s it, this all of what went into the forecast.
All good, we covered everything we can on that, moving on if you don’t mind.
If you want a better alert map template, click on this link then just click CONTINUE on the message. 🙂
From there you can create a free imgur account and upload your maps and create a hyperlink to add to your future predictions. At least that’s what I do, might be a better way…
Lester, just a quick correction, I made the forecast on the 17th but the watch period itself (as stated in the original post) was for 4/20-4/27. Thanks for your words. 🙂
Tayrance, I outlined everything about it all already, I also apologized for the way I came off and for anything else unpleasant – let the ball bounce where it may, don’t wanna beat a dead horse. I posted a message about it, I’m sure you’ve read it by now.
Again, thanks and apologies to all, igotmadbro. :/
Won’t happen again.
I really would much rather befriend all of you guys, not do the opposite ya know? I don’t really have anyone else to talk to about this stuff that is really interested in it as much as I am. I’ve been at this since 2011-ish and it’s almost impossible to keep anyone interested for than 10 minutes, which I find completely baffling… Anyways, the last thing I want to do is push you all away. Just wanna move forward…
Thanks a lot man, I appreciate it. 🙂
I’ve been politely going back & forth with Tayrance too, grown-up discussion. I was just fully explaining my thoughts to him so hopefully he understands where I was coming from. I apologize profusely, I was just really upset about it because I genuinely thought I had it first.
Thanks again for looking into it and giving me a break, I really mean it.
Again, I apologize for everything on my end, I let my emotions get the best of me and it won’t happen again.
Here’s where I’d like to point out my thought process, Tayrance. Presumably you read the rules, but even if you didn’t, you were told specifically NOT to post images from Twitter after your very first 6.0 prediction (last week?) because it’s unverifiable and questionable – if this is no longer the case I’ll retract with grace. After all that, you did the exact same thing again here yesterday by posting this image from Twitter at 7pm which was several hours after the quake occurred. Even if you weren’t very aware of your actions, can you see how this is highly questionable at least? I apologize, but it’s kinda hard to ignore all these things.
