Today’s Russia event was not far off. I can guarantee that if you had extended the alert up the fault to the North Pacific end you would have just won the contest! This should be very encouraging, especially since Im not sure anyone got this one!
You had it first, and more significantly. You had about very very small chance of success given the limitations, and yet, it worked. Might you make another reply to your success proclamation offering some rationale behind the forecast? I will want to include it in the semiannual letter. No need to make a new thread, just post on your success proclamation 🙂
Still Ben here. Doing the stats on your prediction… this is boss man. However, as punishment for posting to Terrance originally and not on your own, YOU SHALL WAIT FOR THE NEWS TOMORROW! But you’ll be happy.
subcoder… I didn’t see your posting since it was a reply. Tayrance did exactly what it said in the guidelines in order for me to notice it – but I have noticed it now. Please have a few more hours patience until tomorrow’s news.
Terrance – I can see the twitter posting but did you post anything here before the quake happened? If you are just sharing what is posted on twitter, after the quake happens, it makes it difficult to confirm what areas were on alert. This was a good call, but if it had been for a 7.5 and the contest prize, you’d need to have posted it here before the earthquake. Someone could easily just say “Hey how do we know he didn’t post 100 times on twitter, delete the wrong ones, and send in the right one after the quake.” – I am not accusing, but that is the type of thing we want to avoid in terms of people questioning success 🙂
Good job here, but try to get it on the site before the shaking starts 🙂
Hi Tayrance. Your star position is fine since we can see what you wrote. The issue is that I don’t see where you posted something before the earthquake occurred. Your posting here was after the earthquakes. Do you have the link to your actual prediction? See the success declaration guidelines to see what you need to give us to verify the stats. You’d be the first the first member to nail an M6 event if you can get us that link.
Nice work. This type of prediction has some significance to it if it can be repeated. Have you considered focusing on this region? or are you open to looking elsewhere? Knowing when M5 events will happen is still relevant for sure. If you were focus there, and get 3 or 4 in a row with 4 or fewer days watch, it could be something. Upping the magnitude watches helps too.
Another way to pull it off would be to post a daily max magnitude for this region, which would allow us to analyze it that way as well.
