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115 ptslesterJanuary 18, 2018 at 7:47 pm #3642
Hey Chris,
You have given a very good detailed description above… and compliment you on the easy to understand format by which you have compiled this. I believe it is possible that there are many different trigger scenario’s responsible for instigating seismic activity, but I also firmly believe at the root of all these scenario’s, the main instigator is “combination”.
I don’t know if you tried my EPAMe piece yesterday, but you have to ask the question, how can two data sets and an earthquake all correlate with a single dot on a screen ? two or three minutes either way and none of these would be an issue!. I believe seismic activity works like an Earth clock, and therefore pre-destined to occur by means of the right combination… what we see in the data is the buildup to inevitability !
If we are talking trigger theories… let us look at one that has occurred today. A 5.7 occurred Northwest of the Kuril Islands at 12:08:52 UTC, if we look at the T&D map related to this time, how do we determine what triggered the quake from noting where the sun / Moon and terminator are positioned at this time ?… this is what I see…
Firstly… it is Sunrise on 83.59’W – 17.40’N, this is the epicentre of the 7.6 North of Honduras event, does this mean there was some kind of energy transfer between Honduras and the Kuril Islands ?… no, because the T sequence for both locations shows they have no direct terminator or Solar Noon contact. The 7.6 Honduras quake was the first major event in 26 days, of all the minutes in a day why would the Kuril quake occur on the exact minute it was Sunrise here ?
Second… the longitude of the sun at this time was 0.383’E, the opposite longitude to this is 179.617’W. On 16th Jan, a 5.9 occurred in the Fiji Region on longitude 179.220’W… so technically speaking, the sun is on the opposite Solar Noon longitude to the 5.9 Fiji epicentre. So.. the map shows Sunrise on the 7.6 Honduras epicentre, and an opposite Solar Noon on the 5.9 Fiji event… thus we have the makings of a possible trigger combination!. The connection between the Fiji epicentre and the Kuril Islands lies with the Dusk terminator threshold. In my description yesterday, I mentioned that on 16th Jan at 08:02 UTC, the ACE data feed stopped for a short period… and how it was related to the Fiji epicentre. If you input this time in the map, you will see it is Dusk on the Fiji epicentre, but it is also Dusk on the 5.7 Kuril epicentre !!. The next question is; if the Honduras event occurred on the 10th Jan, Fiji on the 16th, and an ACE recorded T connection between Fiji and Kuril also on the 16th… why did the Kuril event not occur yesterday ?. The Sun and terminator were in this same position at this time yesterday… however, the only thing different was the “moons” position !
Third… another item in my post yesterday, was a listing of night distances related to the sun and moon, the last one was dated 6th Jan at 19:09 UTC. The longitudes of the sun and moon at this time was sun 105.794’W – moon 138.783’E equalling 115.457 degrees apart (as measured East from the moons position). Measuring in the opposite direction equates to 244.532 degrees, the centre point between sun and moon in this case would be 122.266 degrees, or put another way, the longitude relative to Earth would be 16.516’W. The centre of the moon was on this longitude at 12:07:10 UTC today… 102 seconds later, the 5.7 occurred in the Kuril Islands!. If you take into account that I do not have the resources of the USGS, nor do I posses a super computer in my home… my calculations are determined with pen and paper, if you discount 102 seconds of human error, the moon is dead centre to the 6th Jan solar / lunar positions !!
From the outside, this could pass as a good combination and plausible reason why the earthquake occurred. With nearly all 5.5+ events, I can find a combination to fit the picture… but these are after the fact. I have endeavoured for years to try and get ahead of the action with my combo technic… but realistically, I know I would only achieve this if I had the resources of the USGS, or a super computer in my home 🙂
For all the detail and locations listed in this description, one location still stands alone… the 7.6 Honduras epicentre, the only thing it will relate to is the “time” that the Kuril event occurred at!
I now leave this for review by the “Master Dragon Jammer” himself 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 18, 2018 at 8:41 pm #3643BTW – two points I forgot to mention, Solar Noon today on the 7.6 Honduras epicentre occurred at 17:47 UTC… the 5.6 South of Tual, Indonesia occurred at 17:48 UTC !!
Also I have completed calculations for the next sun / moon / night equation, this occurs on 27th Jan at 21:01 UTC… the combination lays “heavy” on 115.490’W – 30.940’N 10 km’s North of Santa Cruz, Baja California. If you recall we had a “Doc and Marty” connection with El Salvador on the last attempt… something could occur here too before the stated time and date !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 18, 2018 at 10:19 pm #3645Chris / Hook … I have just put my combination theory to the test, by posting a 48 hour forecast on Bougainville !
As mentioned above, the ACE data feed stopped on the 16th Jan at 08:02 UTC, it re-established opperation at 09:15 UTC. At the time of this post, I am observing another Data break at 18:23 UTC… these times correspond to Dawn / Sunset / Dusk on 155.440’E – 5.440’S Bougainville
The T sequence shows Sunrise here at 19:38 UTC… it is also Dawn at this time on the 5.7 Kuril epicentre. Sunset occurred at 08:02 UTC (same time as the 16th), so as mentioned, it is also Dusk on the 5.9 Fiji epicentre. Solar Noon occurred at 01:49 UTC, also at this time it was Sunset on 105.750’W – 22.433’S, this is the location the sun occupied in the sun / moon / night equation above at 19:09 UTC 6th Jan.
The 5.9 Fiji event occurred within 48 hours of the data breaks… I am speculating that this period will repeat !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 12:12 pm #3649A 4.9 occurred in the Bougainville Region P.N.G. at 05:44:46 UTC… within the 48 hour period I had stated.
What was the trigger ?… under BTW in my post above, I mentioned the next sun / moon / night equation would occur on 27th Jan at 21:01 UTC. The geocentric position of the sun at this time will be 132.050’W – 18.300’S, this location relative to Earth places you 800 km’s NNW of Pitcairn Island in the South Pacific. The geocentric position of the moon will be 6.550’W – 18.250’N, this places you 130 km’s Northeast of Walatah, Mauritania, West Africa. These co-ordinates equate to a longitude distance of 125.450 degrees apart, as measured East from the suns position… this measurement is equal to the length of night on the suns latitude.
Dawn on the moons position in Mauritania occurred today at 05:45 UTC, input 21:01 UTC 27th Jan in the T&D map and dot the centre of the moon, input the Bougainville event time and Dawn is on the dot!… did I calculate a trigger point, or is this coincidental ?
Regardless of magnitude, this test was based on observing the UTC times of 3 breaks in the ACE data feeds, and “combining” them to determine the location of a seismic event, which occurred 8 hours 4 minutes after an official forecast was posted… was this a successful test ?…. any thoughts!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 2:14 pm #3650At 14:28:45 UTC, (approx 14 minutes from the time of this post) the moon will be on longitude 6.550’W (Mauritania!), also at this time it will be Sunrise on 132.050’W – 18.300’S NNW of Pitcairn Island… like an Earth clock !
Will there be consequences ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 19, 2018 at 2:58 pm #3651Ugh…I wish I had the time to play on T&D right now to see these points Lester.
Maybe I can make the time again for it like I hope to this weekend.
What links to my Trinidad and Tobago post? I had several mag fluxes and the OLR, TEC, and weather patterns that led me there and then a blot depth M4 quake struck there a day or two later. Does it just happen to share the same lines are Mauritania and/or the other regions you mentioned?
This is what happened to us on our Honduras miss, and the Peru miss. You had figured out that the near misses shared dawn/dusk lines I think?
Hook, what’s up your sleeve man? You said others are on the money like you or close. Do they not want to post here? What’s up? Cuz if a fool like me is stinkin’ up the joint then I will respectfully bow out.
We had a few newcomers who missed and haven’t reposted and somebody who had close miss, but also has yet to return. Starting to wondering if this jammer comment has something to do with the frequency of mine or Lester’s posting??
Just don’t leave us hanging. The suspense is distracting me now.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 6:14 pm #3652I was under the impression that we were “actually” having a serious discussion about trigger theories. Not really knowing what a dragon jammer was, I signed off from my piece with “Master Dragon Jammer” as a compliment to Hook’s status, and appreciation for giving cause to continue… was I wrong ??
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 21, 2018 at 2:53 pm #3662Hey Chris,
I think enough time has elapsed now to suggest “Nobody is Home”… another memorable experience to learn from !!
I noticed yesterday, my forecasts are dated as 2017… so technically speaking my forecast rate for 2018 is non existent 🙂
Keep moving forward my friend…
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 21, 2018 at 8:48 pm #3664At 20:33 UTC yesterday (20th), the moon was on the same longitude as the 7.6 North of Honduras epicentre. A few hours later at 23:40 UTC, it was Sunset on the 7.1 Southern Peru epicentre. Whilst watching SO news today, I noticed these same times corresponded with two significant disturbances in the “Polar Light Centre” data… what a coincidence !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 22, 2018 at 2:39 pm #3673Hi Lester,
Still…what I did was not productive.
Anyway… moving forward. 🙂
What is this light center data? Do you have a link to share?
Is this connected to our trigger conversation? Tekbasse posted an interesting video clip of a bow shock effect observation during the last solar eclipse that was interesting as well.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 22, 2018 at 6:53 pm #3677Hey Chris,
Ben aired an item yesterday related to space weather data from the “polar Light Centre” in Lauvic Loften, Norway, I merely made an observation of how the times relate to the resent 7+ quakes… I don’t know the link, but this address was displayed on the graph.
I too found the video clip that Tekbasse posted very interesting, if you get any free time next weekend, check out my “Out Of Africa” thread again, and see if you think there is any bow shock influence included in this scenario !
Sorry… I have committed us to the infamous Parkfield location 🙂 here’s a heads up…
01:19 UTC – Solar Noon on 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1… Sunset on Prince william Sound, Alaska
02:57 UTC -8 LS = 02:49 UTC – Class B 9.5 flux event… sun on longitude 140.616’E (Solar Noon on Challenger Deep, West of Guam!)
13:42 UTC – significant contact in Mag Phi data… Sunset on 75.750’E – 20.933’S Central Indian Ocean
15:10 UTC – significant contact in SWEPAM data, particularly in the density scaleThe T sequence for Parkfield today… Dawn 13:42 UTC… Sunrise 15:10 UTC … Sunset 01:19 UTC… Dusk 02:49 UTC
The Central Indian Ocean location is related to my post of 17th Jan 10:02 pm “Here is an ACE example”. I don’t think this will result in a big event, but there is the potential to achieve low 5 perhaps… a low 5 in Parkfield is usually news worthy!
I was going to forecast Offshore Palau Wetar, East Timor yesterday, because my own machine recorded an aspect change at 20:15 UTC. But I noticed you was already next door on Batu Merah Island 🙂 Dawn on Palau Wetar occurred at 20:15 UTC, but hey! here’s an ironic twist… it was also Solar Noon on Parkfield at this time !!
I am impressed with your current forecast selection, we both appear to be looking at similar locations… I had to make a dash for Tanzania before “you” spotted it (lol)
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 22, 2018 at 8:47 pm #3680Chris… as you know, I have been logging unusual low mag quakes occurring at 22:16 UTC in British Colombia Canada. A 2.5 occurred yesterday at 22:15:42 UTC, the USGS have reported this as an explosion. I figured a man made reason was plausible because nothing natural matches over the period covered… any idea what this explosion could be, fracking or military perhaps ?
If you have a line to Ben, I would be very grateful if you could inquire on my behalf… it would be nice to have a conclusion to this mystery 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 23, 2018 at 5:56 am #3682Lester! 🙂
Glad you included me in parkfield post:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/3qFYPtoaDGIBGdur2
My approximate mag flux points I mapped brought me to 0550 UTC (approx) and look at my T&D Map. A moon terminator goes close to it. In that time frame after at 0615 there is a TEC flux. It isn’t the strongest signature for me either for the mag flux relaxation point appearing to be either the start or end to larger fluxing on the tromso stack plots. It was a shift like this that I had noted for Ecuador a while back, but timing was off. Whenever I see California I try look for the shift inland. I had seen a bunch of contacts offshore lately and almost ignored the California coastline for a while until this morning. By the time I collected my data, and had my coffee today, I had no time for any forecasting. Thanks for bringing me along this time 🙂
I had to really study for the Batu Merah Island post because of how hard it is to select from all those hot spots when terminators, the way I use them, requires Ben’s model for me to pin point. Glad to see your method has you near there as well.
As for Tanzania, yes Lester, I laughed when I found you there because I wasn’t going to at first until our Atlantic Ridge and then that later South Africa pop…I was thing of those being signal shocks, like the pacific ridge quakes can be for that side of the world… you were already there. Where was I before?…Roberts bay and Cape Town as well? I may need to take a seat on South Africa and observe a bit more. Nice catch!
I am uncertain what help I could be. Other than referencing Ben’s mentioning of this activity and it’s possible relation to mt St. Helens. However, I personally witnessed two meteorite intrusions during the month of November near where I live, and noted one out in the Midwest somewhere just outside of Chicago Illinois, I think, that caused a sonic boom registering as M2 just last week…maybe it was that, but that too would have made the news.
I could email Ben. With the conference coming up, not sure what kind of reply we will get?
Hope you are staying warm and dry.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 1:07 pm #3690OH! Chris… how do I keep missing these ####### targets ? I think I am staying warm and dry this morning because of high blood pressure… and the steam coming out of my ears !. The 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre shares the same 15:54 UTC Dawn threshold as Prince william sound, and the co-ordinates of my Tonga forecast. And this is the other weird connection… when the event occurred at 09:31:41 UTC, it was Sunrise on 71.320’W – 44.480’S Rio Cisnes, Los Lagos, Southern Chile ( my forecast which started on Sunday !!).
This is how I initially determined Rio Cisnes as a viable target; 7.6 North of Honduras 02:52 UTC 10/1 … 7.1 Southern Peru 09:19 UTC 14/1. Input these times in your map, and you will see the Dusk / Dawn thresholds make a cross on Rio Cisnes. Input today’s Alaska event and Sunrise is on the same cross… what is going on here ?
I can’t hit a 7.9 in Alaska… but I’m your man if you want a low 5 in Bougainville 🙂
What’s the story with Java… did you get a hit, or are you having the same problem ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 23, 2018 at 2:30 pm #3691I missed Java. :-/
I had been paying attention to a deep blot that occurred near Sunda, but should have noticed the OLR and lows should have had me look closer to the trench.
I am sorry about Alaska. I didn’t end up forecasting there because you had chignik? I would have ended up in Valdez had I gone with what I had. And, I thought the draw of the low on the east Russia/Japan side was greater.
The Alaska Gulf quake hit in the spot where the low was sitting off in the gulf, and I didn’t see enough OLR that lasted. I had a bunch of Mag relaxation points that cross over Alaska often, but I find it hard to forecast since I would see the moon term shift often, and the sun terminator casts such a broad line across that area. One those occasions I have to see where the sun and moon are over head to see if the mag relaxation point creates a line north/south or east/west because of the diurnal energy flow on the sunlit side.
That’s what got me near pucallpa Peru in that hot spot area. Alaska is also my Afghanistan. Hard to post a forecast for myself anyway because it seems like such a “slow build” area.
I thought you got that and I went west since you beat me to that area as well 🙂
Next time Lester! You, Ben, and maybe geopen? We’re in that area.
Still tough though. On to the breach again my friend?
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 23, 2018 at 4:40 pm #3695Nah… just track the lows near your X’s. 🙂
I remember you saying you look for blots too, but I don’t remember your saying you truly using the lows?
Los Lagos has a big high pressure system sitting on it. If your markers are fluid because of the lows, that may be your missing key. You trace out your x’s with enough time to track the lows. The likeliest point might the region with the strongest low for you.
See what you get. I am finding my mag relaxation points are beginning to look like they match that mention you had about how long it takes the sun and moon to travel around to certain points and time of separation from terminators. I haven’t been able to calculate, but my “eyeball” tells me I have a actually been tracking a similarity with your ACE times and my mag times to suggest I may simply have another version of what you are doing. There may be a wider margin because the protons interaction may be followed up by the mag changes… all speculation of course…but our double dates are no longer coincidental to me.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 7:08 pm #3696That is very sound advice and I thank you for it… I find it takes a lot of time and effort to do the math and formulate combo’s, but as you say watching the pressure data may be what’s missing.
Something has just occurred in the Ace data, that may give us an opportunity to combine our thoughts and efforts into achieving a positive result. The Mag data (particularly in Phi) is showing a significant contact at 16:10 UTC… this is the time after I have deducted 8 minutes. The SWEPAM plasma data is showing the same contact, but also shows an extreme drop in density. If you check the T&D map, the first thing I should tell you is that it is Sunset “to the minute” on 35.060’E – 9.520’S Lupembe, Southern Tanzania (my dashing forecast 🙂 ). Now without meaning to sound like a stuck record, I have a habit of being on the right track but missing the right stop!. Assuming I am wrong about Tanzania, this exact time on the map holds the key to an alternate pre-seismic location. I have checked the terminator thresholds against all resent 5.5+ up to the 7.9 Alaska event, and found no contacts.
Checking the usual subjects shows Dawn in the Fiji region, and Dawn on Kodiak Island wich may suggest a possible aftershock. Sunset is on Vancouver Island and the central Pacific-Antarctic Ridge region. Sunset is over Italy and Sicily, and from Tazmania it comes off the coast of Mozambique. Dusk is on central Turkey, Gulf of Aden and north of Mauritius ( just South of my forecast there). It is Solar Noon in Trinidad and Tobago, and the Falkland Islands… the opposite Solar longitude is on West Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, through the Manila Trench and Southern Taiwan.
I can see one combo in this map; the moon is on longitude 13.005’E, and you have Sunset on Italy, Combine the moons position with the Sunset threshold, and you land on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice in the Appennini Mountains, Central Italy. I usually relate high energy contacts with the Dawn / Dusk thresholds… so any activity here may result in a 4+ at best.
This is my assessment of what I see in this 16:10 UTC T&D map, and will try and find more info from this point.
Chris… I am a retiree so I probably have more time on my hands than you do, so I will understand if you are not here every day. Hope you are interested, and catch the ACE data before it leaves the 6 hour window… I will post if I find anything relevant to this pursuit.
Here’s todays T sequence for Tanzania..
Dawn 02:20 UTC… Sunrise 03:35 UTC… Sunset 16:10 UTC… Dusk 17:24 UTC… Solar Noon 09:52 UTCA couple of interesting points… at 09:52 UTC,it is Sunset on 129.140’E – 8.800’S Timor Trough… approx 100 km’s South of Batu Merah. It is also Dusk at this time on my forecast co-ordinates for Challenger Deep, West of Guam !
At 03:35 UTC, it is Solar Noon on the same stated co-ordinates on the Timor Trough !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 11:36 pm #3698Chris… I have formulated a combination that connects the 16:10 UTC ACE signals with the 7.9 Alaska event… the target focus of this combo “is” Italy. Try the following times and dates with T&D, it will make it easier to follow…
23rd Jan 09:31:44 UTC – M 7.9 Gulf of Alaska … the longitude of the moon at this time is 109.500’E
23rd Jan 16:10 UTC – Significant contacts in ACE data … longitude of the moon on 13.005’E + Sunset combo = 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice, Central Italy… Solar Noon on 59.520’W (Falklands!)
24th Jan 04:54 UTC – longitude of the sun at this time is 109.500’E (moons position at 7.6 Alaska event time)… it is Dawn on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice (draw a line through Italy)… it is also Dawn on 59.520’W – 52.250’S North Arm, Falkland Islands.
24th Jan 10:19 UTC – longitude of the moon is 109.500’E… it is Sunrise on 69.61’W – 18.90’S Tarapace, Chile (6.3 epicentre, 21/1)… referring to the moon map for this time shows the lunar terminator on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice
24th Jan 23:48 UTC – The geocentric position of the moon is 86.010’W – 8.484’N, this places you off the coast of Costa Rica. Sunset for these stated co-ordinates occurs at 23:48 UTC… the moon is “central” to the Sunset threshold. The suns geocentric position at this time is 173.950’W – 19.001’S North of Tonga. If you check the moon map for this time, it shows the sun is “central” to the lunar terminator threshold. At this time of Solar / Lunar equilibrium… look where the lunar terminator is in relation to Italy !!
The T sequence for Castel San Felice shows Solar Noon occurring here between 22nd -25th Jan at 11:21 UTC… it is Sunset for these same three days on 105.918’E – 7.196’S Western Java (6.0 epicentre 23/1).
5.6 Ascension Region 23:22 UTC…my Ascension Island forecast expired 2 days ago 🙁 did you get this one ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2018 at 12:29 am #3700Chris… you know that trigger point I told you to read on in the Indian Ocean (ref; post of 17th Jan,10:02 pm “Here is an ACE example”) well.. it has just triggered another earthquake !. The point I refer to is the central Indian Ocean Ridge, which I have just forecast. Dawn here occurred at 23:09 UTC today… the Ascension Island quake occurred at 23:09:09 UTC !!
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 24, 2018 at 1:52 am #3702Hey Lester,
I missed Ascension too! You are right about my time. The next serious looks I can get won’t be til next weekend. I might try to do a forecast in between if time permits. I was only off by about 400km again for my Java forecast!
You have a Canada one active as well… is the area similar to where Ben has his alert? I am eyeing Seattle area and/or Seminole seamount into port hardy/ up to queen Charlotte sound as a zone, but I am home now and hanging out with family.
Anyway, I will cross check what I get with you if I can, and hope to those T&D times you mentioned too.
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