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115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2018 at 12:54 pm #3704
Hey Chris,
I’m not to sure about my Canada forecast producing a result, it was based on multiple 22:16 UTC events which now appear to be man made explosions !…a few extra sticks of dynamite on the next attempt and who knows 🙂
Don’t worry about responding, if I find anything of interest, I’ll post to keep the community informed… here’s a little to be going on with…
M 6.2 Hokkaido,Japan at 10:51:22 UTC – Dawn on 83.59’W – 17.40’N North of Honduras (7.6 epicentre 10/1 ) = 10:51 UTC 24/1 … Sunset on 109.500’E – 1.500’N = 10:51 UTC 24/1 (ref; post above !),,, triggered by combination!
The T sequence shows Dawn on the 6.2 epicentre occurred at 20:15 UTC, it is “still” solar Noon at this time on Parkfield, California (ref post above 22nd Jan 6:53pm)
More later…
Score: 037 pts115 pts11 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 25, 2018 at 11:27 am #3712M 6.2 Nikol’Skoye at 02:10:34 UTC – Sunset on the 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre occurred today at 02:10 UTC. The longitude of the moon at the time the 6.2 occurred was 120.550’W (Parkfield!).
M 4.0 Northeast of Trabuco Canyon, California at 10:09:56 UTC – The longitude of the sun at this time was 30.600’E, the opposite longitude is 149.400’W = opposite Solar Noon on 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre !!
I missed Triple Junction on magnitude… what are the odds that we will miss Parkfield ?
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 25, 2018 at 2:54 pm #3713At this point… there is small low trough that passes through and I had noted two solar terminator mag contacts that pass through parkfield, but one through Trabuco. Those mag relaxation points looked strong to me, but a tighter low heads toward Vancouver, and some of my mag contacts trace back to Kamchatka/Japan (even Ben still has Kuril Islands on watch).
Probability feels low, but that makes getting a near miss here again would still be good news for getting the next spot! Or, getting the hit makes it all the more significant considering the odds?? I guess it just depends on Bill and Ted wish to view it right now 🙂
I will keep the optimism that our train hits this stop…with minimal damage of course. I too would like to see this “save lives” one day.
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115 ptslesterJanuary 25, 2018 at 5:49 pm #3723M 5.8 West of Ferndale, CA … placing the odds aside, a least we are close to the action 🙂
I worked a moon / Sunrise combo in ACE data yesterday, it landed on 148.610’E – 45.410’N Eturup Etorofu Island, Kuril Islands Region.
I’m tired of missing on magnitude, so if you see anything related to this location, go for it… trust me its there !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 26, 2018 at 2:55 pm #3736Hey Lester,
I have to rethink what I am doing. Ben posted a video about the model. I too feel like I am relying too much on a lot of other data points. I may try to go back just use the basics again, which included my advice to you about using the lows.
I think I might try to simply note the mag relaxation correlation for something later perhaps? It might allow me more time to do this. The other stuff had me doing too much again lately.
Anyway, be back this weekend for sure with new posts.
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 27, 2018 at 12:04 pm #3740Sure thing Chris… I mentioned last year that this subject can grip you like a video game, is this how it is starting to feel ?
Logic dictates, the more data sets you use, the more accurate your detection method becomes… but it is at the expense of investing more time !
I have started using the lunar terminator more than usual in my trigger analysis (thanks to you!)… you find some interesting correlations.
09:32 UTC 23/1 M 7.9 Gulf of Alaska… input this in the map and dot the sun. Input the time of the 6.3 New Guinea event in the “moon” map, and the lunar terminator is on the sun dot !
The New Guinea event also shares the same Dusk threshold as my Challenger Deep, West of Guam Forecast… I missed my stop again 🙁
The next sun / moon / night equation occurs today at 21:01 UTC… no forecast this time, so let us see if anything happens !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 27, 2018 at 6:08 pm #3743Yeah I am interested to see what happens at that time since that is just a couple before my Kamchatka forecast expires. I noted a miss there, but there was something there that made think it could still give out one more burst of energy with all that activity recently.
I also unofficially mentioned Seattle/Vancouver in here, not on the forecast page, and those areas look to be connected to Kamchatka with that time you mentioned. Areas along Mexico (Baja, durango through Guadalajara), Drake Passage. North of Belem/Venezuela/Sargasso Sea, good old Myanmar, Central PNG and to the west near Manikwari. Near Guam too, just to name areas on terminators. 🙂 my stubbornness coming out about our work with terminators.
My son is sick right now, and I can’t play the game to much this weekend. :-/
Just hoping I was right on with a few of the active posts I have for the moment.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorJanuary 27, 2018 at 8:39 pm #3744Oh yeah…Japan Trench was another spot somewhat close by to the influence of that terminator and it just popped a 5.1 for the area.
I think this is why it will be hard for me to let go of it for a while. However, I will be curious to see what a return to some fundamentals could do. 🙂
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115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 28, 2018 at 1:25 am #3756Thanks Lester 🙂
I don’t see anybody else, except for all those included in this observer community, getting any closer? Don’t be too hard on yourself. 🙂
Did one last forecast while my son took a nap. Not too sure about it, but I thought it had potential.
Chat later!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 28, 2018 at 12:46 pm #3757Chris… you are hitting 5’s in Nikol’Skoye and Mindanao like a magician pulls a rabbit from a hat… but I can understand where you are coming from. I have hit some resent 5’s because of spontaneous decisions, but the locations I chose from many days of compiling data are falling short of expectations. After the Tromso contact yesterday, I have decided to focus more on the phenomena of post seismic interactions, and less on forecasting. It is difficult to do both because each requires a lot of effort, and I think my little party tricks here are “not” convincing anyone !
Roll up..Roll up, What triggered the 5.7 in Panama yesterday at 21:45 UTC ?… at 21:45 UTC, it was Sunrise on the 6.2 Hokkaido epicentre, Dawn on the 6.0 Java epicentre, and Sunset on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The later is the location the sun occupied when the 5.9 event occurred South of Fiji on 2nd January… Panama was triggered by post seismic connection !!. Sometimes I have to question weather I still retain all my marbles, I see the answer in this scenario on the screen in front of me, and have trouble understanding why others do not!… why these combinations work, is what I need to try and figure out.
Sometimes, a change of pace can be the right decision to make!
Where “Bill” goes… “Ted” will follow 🙂
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29 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 28, 2018 at 8:05 pm #3760Hello Ben,
I was about to reply to Lester! Super cool to know that you DO check in. 🙂
Seems appropriate that we named ourselves Bill and Ted… since we both end up going on both excellent and bogus adventures around the world in here! 🙂
It’s probably become a like sitcom in here so to speak.Lester, I was eyeing New Zealand. Also not my best, but I am “backtracking” by looking at something I used to do with unanswered blots. Do you have post-seismic spot to cross check with other data?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 28, 2018 at 10:49 pm #3761Hi Ben,
I once posted a prediction to a national news paper, claiming a 6+ would occur in Honshu,Japan in the next 7 days. A 6.2 occurred within 48 hours of my post, later, the paper thanked me for my contribution, and said they would file my email for future reference… in other words, it was not news worth because nobody died. What struck me most was that nobody asked how I came to determine this event would occur in the first place. You have been there and know what it is like… my comments were not aimed at you or Quake Watch, but at society in general. I like it here, but this subject sometimes has you on a short fuse… its good to know you have your “eyes open” on me 🙂
Hey Chris… I just checked out Bill & Ted the movie… it cheered me up because I discovered “Ted” is the good looking one 🙂
I ran a T sequence on Cook Strait, New Zealand as a centre point, but didn’t find anything of significant interest. However, I had recently checked the 6.5 Southwest of Africa, and noted the sun was in the longitude range of New Zealand… on returning to NZ I found the following…
Dawn on the 6.5 Southwest of Africa occurred at 00:24 UTC, at this time it is Solar Noon on 177.216’E (New Zealand) and Sunrise on the 5.5 Myanmar epicentre 7/1. I cross referenced this with Solar Solar Noon at 17:14 UTC on the 7.1 Southern Peru epicentre 14/1, and got a Sunset location on 177.216’E – 40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand. When I checked the 07:33 UTC Sunset time for these co-ordinates, I found it is also Sunset on the 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1, and Dusk on the 6.2 Nikol’Skoye epicentre 25/1
I’m glad you chose this location and not me… sounds a bit boring for my liking 🙂
How is your boy doing ?
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 29, 2018 at 12:07 am #3763My boy is doing better. Only dealing with a slight fever now, but he’s eating and wanting to play already. He’s been a trooper. 🙂
Glad you got the movie reference. 😉 Although Marty and Doc is just as cool.
My play time on here comes to close for the weekend. Saw your Lagos and Xizang post. Too exciting for my taste! 🙂 thanks for t sequence. Maybe I get something then?
I was looking at your Lagos area and it looks like it has potential too. Interesting low activity down there that had me looking at Drake passage at one point. Hope your train makes the stop.
Hope you are well. I will check in from time to time during the week.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 6:25 pm #3771Hey Chris,
I have been constructing a new model based on the geocentric position of the sun, at the time of 5.5+ events occurring… I am far from finishing it, but I have found a couple of interesting points along the way…
If you recall, a 5.9 occurred near the coast of Nicaragua on 16th Jan at 15:03:53 UTC. First point of interest for you, it was Dawn at this time on 177.216’E -40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand !. Second point; also at this time,it was Dusk on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean. These are the co-ordinates the sun occupied when a 5.5 occurred on the Iran-Iraq Border at 06:59:30 UTC on 11th Jan… you may recall this was a swarm of six 5+ events in one hour, the 5.5 was the first to occur. Further to this, the sun was on longitude 43.516’W. This is the same Solar Noon longitude on Rio de Janeiro that was occupied by the sun during the 5.9 South of Fiji event on 2nd Jan… and it is mentioned above in relation to the 5.7 Panama event.
I was checking positions related to the up coming total lunar eclipse on 31st Jan, when I found a correlation with the Nicaragua event, and a speculative pre-seismic location. At 15:04 UTC on 16th Jan (Nicaragua!), I noted the map shows Sunrise in the Santa Barbara / Bakersfield region. The total lunar eclipse occurs at 13:29:50 UTC on 31st Jan, when I input this time in the solar map, and combine it with the Nicaragua event time… it calculates as Dawn / Sunrise on 118.976’W – 35.284’N Bakersfield, California. When you input totality time in the moon map, the lunar terminator is on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean (as stated above !!).
As I said, I’m just playing around with the numbers here… Bakersfield is just a combo for the present!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 7:02 pm #3772BTW – Sunset on Bakersfield occurs at 01:23 UTC on 31st Jan, longitude of the sun at this time is 162.598’E = Solar Noon on the 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1 !. When totality occurs at 13:30 UTC, the moon is on 160.783’E… this will be “8 minutes” after it has past the 5.9 event longitude!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 10:56 pm #3775There is a break in ACE data feeds at 21:03 UTC, it is a match for the Dawn threshold from the Sulu Sea region through to the Philippine trench. A strong contact at 14:10 UTC, I linked it to the moon on longitude 121.540’E… a spontaneous decision !
Hope you don’t mind some company ?
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorJanuary 30, 2018 at 2:17 pm #3782If this high pressure cell breaks away from mid to lower part of so-cal soon enough, then this area may have potential. I think we took a look at this spot before? Maybe the OLR is making it’s way over as well. There have been some interesting quakes in the SoCal area again. Full moon is coming too.
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