Discussion thread (2) general topics

HookEcho,

My watch periods have always been 20 days, as stated by the rules here… I made a 30 day remark related to cycle period only once since joining Quake Watch.

Not got the hang of trans-migration yet, but EMSC published on a 4.5 Near south coast of Honshu on 137.58’E – 34.38’N, at a depth of 307 km’s… should I be encouraged by this in relation to my Japan forecast ?

Yada Yada Yada translates as mundane/repetitive, it is also a calling by Afghan herdsmen to summon their flocks… are you calling me a boring old goat ? 🙂

Hook,

Thanks for the link to NOAA about sector crossings. I had been following GONG at a time before the recent uptick and made a note to add, but I had misjudged the timing. It wasn’t until after studying those series of recent quakes (after my post), that I was thinking…oops.

Lester, no need to split. 🙂 starting to get the feeling like I am the little brother, but don’t go too easy on me now. This is one forum where my lumps are helpful.

Thanks Hook! I am hoping to use the NOAA site, and your advice for a better aim. I forgot we were going to post on this page instead of the other set. I left an idea on the old thread for a possible combined project. Maybe there is one more puzzle piece we could find?

Haha… yes. The newb is slacking 🙂 I tried looking at your recent post, but it won’t let me see the image. Was it the Trimble map?

Awesome! Check this out

https://photos.app.goo.gl/mIMMiHoh2i9Sarx13

This latest TEC image looks like it kinda traces the plasma jets! There is a blot in Mexico too.

Counselor,
Tracing back in the present time doesn’t work the same as tracing from the day the event occurred. Angles have already changed, so you have to start at the location the event happened on that date (solar footprint), and correlate the terminator thresholds from that point.

In this case, the trace started with the 7.7 Nikol’Skoye event on the 17th, which I have shown how it correlated with the 6.7 Turkey event (in the other thread) on the 20th. If you are using T&d, select July 17, 01:17 UTC… the 17th is our footprint day (7.7), so although the Turkey event did not happen until 3 days later, the T angles for correlation will be from this day forth. On the T&d map, you should be able to see that the Dawn terminator threshold runs through 27.42’E – 36.93’N Turkey (6.7 epicentre). If you follow it round, you will see that it also runs through 83.850’W – 9.610’N Costa Rica as Dusk (One I forecast earlier).

Correlations: Between July 7 to 18, Costa Rica shared it’s 10:06 UTC Dawn time with 136.100’E – 33.540’N Japan’s Sunset time (10:06 UTC). It also shared this same time with other threshold related locations: 5.9 Leyte, Pilippines July 10, 5.3 Ecuador July 11, 5.1 Argentina July 13, 6.4 Peru July 18… Select 10:06 UTC on the map, and you will see!

Going back to 01:17 UTC, you will note the thresholds also transit; 5.6 Easter Island July 10, and 5.7 Pacific Antarctic Ridge July 18.

Select 11:26 UTC on the following dates and Sunrise in Costa Rica matches perfectly with Dusk one location: 6.5 Leyte Philippines July 6, 5.9 Leyte Philippines July 10, 6.4 Layte Philippines July 18.

The sunrise/sunset bands in Costa Rica on the 17th were 2 minutes in extent (sunrise 11:24 – 26 UTC … Sunset 23:58 – 00:00 UTC). These match 2 other events that occurred on the 17th: 5.1 Nikol’Skoye 11:23:01 UTC, and 5.1 Near Islands 23:57:41 UTC.

And finally, 83.850’W Costa Rica is an opposite longitude match too 97.286’E Hpasawng Burma!

Counselor, the models you posted in the other thread are very useful for determination of environmental conditions within a region, but the key to determining an active point lies with the ACE data feeds. Ground anomalies react to the sun, moon and terminator transits, these reactions are recorded as aspect changes in the trace lines. Some times they are structures, trace breaks and compression’s in the mag feed. There are some big hitters in this sequence, which makes me believe this location could be the next 7+ Hook was talking about… or at least a 6+. A blot signature is still present on Guatemala,so you are indeed on an active point… but it could also be residual!. I would be tempted to keep a close eye on California (like you have been doing), there is a behavioural link between Turkey an CA, and Turkey has just seen a lot of action !!

Counselor,
A 4.9 in the South Sandwich Islands could be a fore-shock to something bigger, especially as it was only 200 miles off my Mauritius Solar Noon Calculation. The sun is now well up to speed on its lateral Journey South, which means if you forecast South Sandwich, it would have to cover a large region. I got a hit in June because the T angles were more or less static due to solstice (failed because my posted mag was too high), but with the sun on the move again, focusing on a small point here is like trying to hit a moving target… the South Sandwich region will best suit me again in December.

Bougainville has had some big events in the past, in my opinion something has definitely been set in motion here. It was on the parallel terminator threshold to Vanuatu, when both Vanuatu occurred at 08:59 UTC, and Sunset transited the 7.7 NikolSkoye epicentre at the same time… #1 for sure!

A 4.7 occurred today, at 186 km’s NNW of Road Town, British Virgin Islands on Latitude 20.05’N. It was followed 30 minutes later by a 4.7 in Vanuatu. Anybody familiar with this region, knows a 4.7 is a big deal in the Virgin Isles , especially one that is slightly off the beaten track. It also occurred practically on the same latitude as the Haiti forecast I posted, and was followed by a previously correlated seismic region. It would not be my first choice, but I didn’t want to waste the effort and opportunity, so I posted on all three locations.

After what I have said, an 8.5 will probably go off in British Colombia now… and ruin my year 🙂

Counselor,
The hard part about analysing the data we collect, is making a judgement call on the time we place a forecast. I would have said at least 14 days before an event in Vanuatu… but it occurred 6 hours after my post. It is up to the individual to asses time on current data. Hook gets hits because he is use to watching for the signs needed for his short alert periods. I get hits because I work 20 -30 day sequences to try and match future terminator positions. It comes down to experience,so don’t worry about mistakes… you will soon catch on! Solar flux events can be used as a starting point, but in most cases they can corroborate data for a particular location that you have already selected.

ACE has just recorded a structural anomaly on the EPAMp monitor… I don’t know what you guy’s think, but this is my take on it !

Trace spike at 19:40 UTC, -8 LS = 19:32 UTC
Sunrise on 141.51’E – 37.43’N Off East Coast of Honshu, Japan (5.8 epicentre, July 20) … 19:32 UTC July 22
Positional longitude of the moon … 120.48’W

Trace spike at 20:15 UTC, -8 LS = 20:07 UTC
Sunrise on 136.100’E – 33.540’N Southern Honshu, Japan … 20:07 UTC, July 22
Positional longitude of the sun … 121.28’W

Start of structural increase at 20:25 UTC, -8 LS = 20:17 UTC
Positional longitude of the sun … 122.61’W, same longitude as “North of San Francisco” (Lester:July 4, 7:25 pm)

Structure terminates at 21:40 utc, -8 LS = 21:32 UTC
positional longitude of the moon … 149.36’W, Same long as “Pacific-Antarctic Ridge” (Lester:July 2, 12:06 am)

Counselor, the structure is an increased energy reading from a terminator transit. Open 2 tabs on your computer with T&D in each, input the time of the first point of structural increase (20:17 UTC) in the first map. And the termination time (21:32 UTC) in the second. The first time is Dawn somewhere on the planet, the second is sunrise on the same location. If you flick between the two maps, you should see where these two thresholds meet. If you find where it is, don’t be hasty, if you want to get in the big room on this site… I would put 20 days on it to make sure !!

There is a second structure following the first, this one is related to Hawaii… but that’s for another day 🙂