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  • 37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 17, 2017 at 9:30 pm #2080

    M6.2 – 183km ESE of Nikol’skoye, Russia 2017-07-17 11:05:08 UTC at a depth of 7.9 km.
    Possible transmigration of energy from this deep earthquake that occurred six days ago:
    M5.0 – 54km SSE of Korsakov, Russia 2017-07-11 13:35:57 UTC at a depth of 340.6 km.
    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us100098sf#executive

    There was also: M4.5 – 111km W of Ust’-Kamchatsk Staryy, Russia 2017-07-14 01:12:26 UTC at a depth of 174.7 km
    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us20009w6z#executive
    Fairly close by, but it would make more sense if the M6.2 and the M5.0 are related, this still leaves the very deep:
    M5.9 – 180km ESE of Hoemul-li, North Korea 2017-07-12 19:48:08 UTC at a depth of 559.1 km.
    I do not think this will go unresolved, this energy will make an appearance at a shallower depth, potentially headed East/NE as well.

    • This topic was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 18, 2017 at 1:24 am #2089

    Gravity Anomalies, EQs image:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQUkFVYmNJcWVHYmM/view?usp=sharing

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 18, 2017 at 10:53 pm #2120

    HookEcho,

    My watch periods have always been 20 days, as stated by the rules here… I made a 30 day remark related to cycle period only once since joining Quake Watch.

    Not got the hang of trans-migration yet, but EMSC published on a 4.5 Near south coast of Honshu on 137.58’E – 34.38’N, at a depth of 307 km’s… should I be encouraged by this in relation to my Japan forecast ?

    Yada Yada Yada translates as mundane/repetitive, it is also a calling by Afghan herdsmen to summon their flocks… are you calling me a boring old goat ? 🙂

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 19, 2017 at 3:10 am #2123

    Lester,
    Yes: http://early-est.rm.ingv.it/events/hypo.1500364021881.html
    This could be the thermal energy which made its appearance 559.1 km down thats associated with the N Korea M5.9 transmigrating upward and East/SE. This is the general direction of migration from deep epicenters for Russia/Korea. Example: https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/photo/117300779230803580292/6374944103156747266?icm=false

    But look what else I found. Is the USGS intentionally posting the incorrect depth so we are unaware?
    USGS doesn’t even have your quake on their list, and puts the recent Owen Fracture Zone Region at 10 km
    and..nevermind for now. This site is really freaking cool!
    Seismic teleconnections just occurred minutes apart between Japan: http://early-est.rm.ingv.it/events/hypo.1500364021881.html
    Vanuatu:
    http://early-est.rm.ingv.it/events/hypo.1500431774240.html
    And Argentina:
    http://early-est.rm.ingv.it/events/hypo.1500431339220.html
    Nothing on USGS about any of these quakes yet. Losers.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQUGY4MmZaZDh1eXc/view?usp=sharing

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 19, 2017 at 3:48 am #2124

    Oh, and that is OUR Japan forecast 🙂 I put the region back on watch a few days back, too many unresolved deep seismic shocks for me to let it go yet..
    I successfully forecast the M7.3 Japan last Nov. 2016: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/MjsjcXkDsd7
    And M7’s tend to not show up alone, so…maybe we will be splitting that prize 🙂

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 19, 2017 at 6:20 am #2125

    Hook and Lester,
    Best of luck in this holding pattern we’re in for the next M7+. Not surprised to hear about USGS withholding data. I used to reference a website for the AMPERE project to study the increase in overall current in the atmosphere around periods related to big quakes. I think it was around March (2017) that they cut off the public information: http://ampere.jhuapl.edu/
    It wasn’t real time, but I was trying to look for a longer term pattern in hopes to anticipate the pattern using some of the basic tools. I definitely have some more homework with the types of forecasts you guys are making.

    I just made another forecast too that includes Japan, but I am likely to be way off for that area after seeing your guys Japan forecasts. I may need to extend the days as well. You guys were also talking about Burma before I started seeing the patterns that had me feel comfortable forecasting there as well.

    If I happen to catch something more worth sharing with my idea about the ophiolite in some of these areas, I will post it here.

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 19, 2017 at 9:12 am #2126

    Counselorgimber,
    I read one of your most recent forecasts, good work on picking and combining factors. Note we had a sector crossing early on the 17th, then reversed polarity a few times throughout the UtC day. If you are not quite sure if we had a sector crossing or not, you can read the noaa space weather forecast discussion, and while we are at times better than they are, they are fairly spot on with the sector crossings. Find the Solar Wind section, there will be a 24 hour summary and a forecast. When they mention the Phi Angle that is going to let you know if the polarity has changed or not. They do not always put it in there, but most of the time. Anytime they state the Phi Angle rotated from one polarity to the other you can pretty much assume we have changed magnetic sectors at the time mentioned,(most of the time they will, unless they are being lazy) and crossed the neutral layer that separates the magnetic sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field. they do two updates a UTC period. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
    Also, they keep the past discussions stored here, if you need to go back and want to check on a particular event on a certain day.
    ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/discussion/
    You may have known this already, but just in case…

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 19, 2017 at 9:56 am #2128

    HookEcho,
    Apologies,”Our Forecast”, and it is good to see the Counselor keeping up with us….

    5.2 Ryukyu Islands,07:15:27 UTC at a depth of 104 km’s… what is £250 split 3 ways anyway 🙂

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 19, 2017 at 1:39 pm #2130

    Hook,

    Thanks for the link to NOAA about sector crossings. I had been following GONG at a time before the recent uptick and made a note to add, but I had misjudged the timing. It wasn’t until after studying those series of recent quakes (after my post), that I was thinking…oops.

    Lester, no need to split. 🙂 starting to get the feeling like I am the little brother, but don’t go too easy on me now. This is one forum where my lumps are helpful.

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 20, 2017 at 8:14 pm #2147

    Counselorgimber,

    SSBC’s can be fairly difficult to forecast at times due to the warps in the current sheet, CME’S, etc,
    A co-rotating interaction region or CIR, pretty much the same. If yo wish to forecast them, remember that
    Out ahead and before the arrival of a high speed coronal hole stream, is where you will find them.
    For example, if a high speed coronal hole stream is expected to arrive 3 days from now, we may see a solar sector boundary crossing
    occur on day 1, followed by a CIR on day 2, and the high speed coronal hole stream arrival early on day 3. This can vary of course.

    If an expected coronal hole stream is the same polarity as the most recent, omit the SSBC, but still be on the watch for the CIR.

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 20, 2017 at 10:36 pm #2150

    Thanks Hook! I am hoping to use the NOAA site, and your advice for a better aim. I forgot we were going to post on this page instead of the other set. I left an idea on the old thread for a possible combined project. Maybe there is one more puzzle piece we could find?

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 21, 2017 at 12:13 am #2153

    Counselorgimber,
    Did you see the total electron content [TEC] anomaly over Peru precursor to the M6.4 post? You are supposed to be the one all over that! 🙂

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 21, 2017 at 3:02 am #2157

    Haha… yes. The newb is slacking 🙂 I tried looking at your recent post, but it won’t let me see the image. Was it the Trimble map?

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 21, 2017 at 6:12 am #2161

    Counselorgimber,
    I fixed it. Click on the second one. Or I can post it here: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/7MN1KtmKPYE

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 21, 2017 at 8:28 pm #2174

    Awesome! Check this out

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/mIMMiHoh2i9Sarx13

    This latest TEC image looks like it kinda traces the plasma jets! There is a blot in Mexico too.

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 21, 2017 at 9:34 pm #2175

    Lester and Hook,

    How do Kimbe PNG, Guatemala, and Fiji look to you guys?

    Lester, tried to do a quick back trace for dawn/dusk that was very crude starting from 5.0 at 1709 UTC in Greece today ( which popped after 4.5 just 7 hrs prior with a 4.5) ended in those three area listed above. Thoughts?

    Guatemala is not to far from the TEC image I posted above earlier. Sunset in that area around 0140 UTC July 22. Maybe some activity tonight?

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by Counselor.
    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by Counselor.
    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 22, 2017 at 2:08 am #2182

    Check this out, before they started censoring my thermal neutron ground station data, look at that rise and massive spike in thermal neutrons:
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQb3VLZFJ1WDVraWc/view?usp=sharing
    M6.4 Chile on the 20th and M6.0 Fiji on the 21st.

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 22, 2017 at 5:47 am #2188

    Whoa… and both those sites are up right now again 2 years and a month from that image? Interesting, and damn would it be nice to have that now!

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 22, 2017 at 8:08 pm #2203

    Counselor,
    Tracing back in the present time doesn’t work the same as tracing from the day the event occurred. Angles have already changed, so you have to start at the location the event happened on that date (solar footprint), and correlate the terminator thresholds from that point.

    In this case, the trace started with the 7.7 Nikol’Skoye event on the 17th, which I have shown how it correlated with the 6.7 Turkey event (in the other thread) on the 20th. If you are using T&d, select July 17, 01:17 UTC… the 17th is our footprint day (7.7), so although the Turkey event did not happen until 3 days later, the T angles for correlation will be from this day forth. On the T&d map, you should be able to see that the Dawn terminator threshold runs through 27.42’E – 36.93’N Turkey (6.7 epicentre). If you follow it round, you will see that it also runs through 83.850’W – 9.610’N Costa Rica as Dusk (One I forecast earlier).

    Correlations: Between July 7 to 18, Costa Rica shared it’s 10:06 UTC Dawn time with 136.100’E – 33.540’N Japan’s Sunset time (10:06 UTC). It also shared this same time with other threshold related locations: 5.9 Leyte, Pilippines July 10, 5.3 Ecuador July 11, 5.1 Argentina July 13, 6.4 Peru July 18… Select 10:06 UTC on the map, and you will see!

    Going back to 01:17 UTC, you will note the thresholds also transit; 5.6 Easter Island July 10, and 5.7 Pacific Antarctic Ridge July 18.

    Select 11:26 UTC on the following dates and Sunrise in Costa Rica matches perfectly with Dusk one location: 6.5 Leyte Philippines July 6, 5.9 Leyte Philippines July 10, 6.4 Layte Philippines July 18.

    The sunrise/sunset bands in Costa Rica on the 17th were 2 minutes in extent (sunrise 11:24 – 26 UTC … Sunset 23:58 – 00:00 UTC). These match 2 other events that occurred on the 17th: 5.1 Nikol’Skoye 11:23:01 UTC, and 5.1 Near Islands 23:57:41 UTC.

    And finally, 83.850’W Costa Rica is an opposite longitude match too 97.286’E Hpasawng Burma!

    Counselor, the models you posted in the other thread are very useful for determination of environmental conditions within a region, but the key to determining an active point lies with the ACE data feeds. Ground anomalies react to the sun, moon and terminator transits, these reactions are recorded as aspect changes in the trace lines. Some times they are structures, trace breaks and compression’s in the mag feed. There are some big hitters in this sequence, which makes me believe this location could be the next 7+ Hook was talking about… or at least a 6+. A blot signature is still present on Guatemala,so you are indeed on an active point… but it could also be residual!. I would be tempted to keep a close eye on California (like you have been doing), there is a behavioural link between Turkey an CA, and Turkey has just seen a lot of action !!

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 22, 2017 at 9:10 pm #2204

    And using the ET long term prediction formula the 7.7 Nikol’Skoye event was energy transmigration from the deep Sea of Okhotsk seismic event back in 2013, I just mis calculated the date. I believe I am close to getting the math correct however. Strange how different methods correlate to the same region. Another major seismic event using the long term formula coming up is supposed to be transmigration from a deep event that occurred South of Honshu Japan, also back in 2013. I will be back online in abit, I haven’t read alot of your posts and should catch up.

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 22, 2017 at 9:41 pm #2207

    Counselor,
    A 4.9 in the South Sandwich Islands could be a fore-shock to something bigger, especially as it was only 200 miles off my Mauritius Solar Noon Calculation. The sun is now well up to speed on its lateral Journey South, which means if you forecast South Sandwich, it would have to cover a large region. I got a hit in June because the T angles were more or less static due to solstice (failed because my posted mag was too high), but with the sun on the move again, focusing on a small point here is like trying to hit a moving target… the South Sandwich region will best suit me again in December.

    Bougainville has had some big events in the past, in my opinion something has definitely been set in motion here. It was on the parallel terminator threshold to Vanuatu, when both Vanuatu occurred at 08:59 UTC, and Sunset transited the 7.7 NikolSkoye epicentre at the same time… #1 for sure!

    A 4.7 occurred today, at 186 km’s NNW of Road Town, British Virgin Islands on Latitude 20.05’N. It was followed 30 minutes later by a 4.7 in Vanuatu. Anybody familiar with this region, knows a 4.7 is a big deal in the Virgin Isles , especially one that is slightly off the beaten track. It also occurred practically on the same latitude as the Haiti forecast I posted, and was followed by a previously correlated seismic region. It would not be my first choice, but I didn’t want to waste the effort and opportunity, so I posted on all three locations.

    After what I have said, an 8.5 will probably go off in British Colombia now… and ruin my year 🙂

    Score: 0
    11 pts
    Counselor
    July 22, 2017 at 10:03 pm #2208

    Lester, thanks again, and thanks for your patience. I am determined to get this part down because I do feel this is adding an additional organization to our work. Since you mentioned the ACE feeds, does an ACE monitored flux event need to have happened within a certain time frame for the quake to count as a start point for you? You have given me plenty to work with already and I will continue working on what you just posted above.

    PS (edit)- Hook, yes please share more of the long term info you have too. Hook, and Lester, I missed these previous posts as I was just posting the reply above this edit. (sigh) watching over my kiddo makes the forecasting a little more challenging. 🙂

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by Counselor.
    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 23, 2017 at 12:03 am #2211

    Counselor,
    The hard part about analysing the data we collect, is making a judgement call on the time we place a forecast. I would have said at least 14 days before an event in Vanuatu… but it occurred 6 hours after my post. It is up to the individual to asses time on current data. Hook gets hits because he is use to watching for the signs needed for his short alert periods. I get hits because I work 20 -30 day sequences to try and match future terminator positions. It comes down to experience,so don’t worry about mistakes… you will soon catch on! Solar flux events can be used as a starting point, but in most cases they can corroborate data for a particular location that you have already selected.

    ACE has just recorded a structural anomaly on the EPAMp monitor… I don’t know what you guy’s think, but this is my take on it !

    Trace spike at 19:40 UTC, -8 LS = 19:32 UTC
    Sunrise on 141.51’E – 37.43’N Off East Coast of Honshu, Japan (5.8 epicentre, July 20) … 19:32 UTC July 22
    Positional longitude of the moon … 120.48’W

    Trace spike at 20:15 UTC, -8 LS = 20:07 UTC
    Sunrise on 136.100’E – 33.540’N Southern Honshu, Japan … 20:07 UTC, July 22
    Positional longitude of the sun … 121.28’W

    Start of structural increase at 20:25 UTC, -8 LS = 20:17 UTC
    Positional longitude of the sun … 122.61’W, same longitude as “North of San Francisco” (Lester:July 4, 7:25 pm)

    Structure terminates at 21:40 utc, -8 LS = 21:32 UTC
    positional longitude of the moon … 149.36’W, Same long as “Pacific-Antarctic Ridge” (Lester:July 2, 12:06 am)

    Counselor, the structure is an increased energy reading from a terminator transit. Open 2 tabs on your computer with T&D in each, input the time of the first point of structural increase (20:17 UTC) in the first map. And the termination time (21:32 UTC) in the second. The first time is Dawn somewhere on the planet, the second is sunrise on the same location. If you flick between the two maps, you should see where these two thresholds meet. If you find where it is, don’t be hasty, if you want to get in the big room on this site… I would put 20 days on it to make sure !!

    There is a second structure following the first, this one is related to Hawaii… but that’s for another day 🙂

    Score: 0
    115 pts
    lester
    July 23, 2017 at 12:43 am #2212

    Just an add on before I retire for the day…

    Yesterday, the ACE mag feed stopped at 23:15 UTC, -8 LS = 23:07 UTC
    Today (July 22) the mag feed has stopped at 23:13 UTC, -8 LS = 23:05 UTC

    Yesterday on 97.286’E – 18.920’N Hpasawng, Burma… Sunrise was 23:07 UTC
    Today, it is Sunrise at 23:05 UTC !!

    Score: 0
    37 pts
    HookEcho
    July 23, 2017 at 2:02 am #2213

    Lester,
    We intersect once again. Japan and Vanuatu are paired off in the migration pattern.
    M4.8 – 97km SSE of Hachijo-jima, Japan 2017-07-22 09:29:33 UTC at a depth of 99.8 km
    M4.7 – 75km WNW of Isangel, Vanuatu 2017-07-22 10:11:19 UTC at a depth of 35.0 km
    Migration Map: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQUjg4MUlJUXBISVU/view?usp=sharing

    Note the Japan quake occurred first, setting the magnitude range to be expected in the Vanuatu if the seismic event was to occur in the region within a 24 hour period.

    So, there is several earthquake migration methods I use, all statistically valid. the first is on a global scale over large distances, and match in magnitude with a small variance within a magnitude.

    Second, the ET law long term where the migration transfers from deep tectonic shocks that travel very limited distances [at ground level anyway], and the majority of the time [dependent on region] a predictable direction of travel.

    Third, very similar to second, with some variances. However, second and third are limited and effectively applied to deep-seated faults. The deep-seated faults are facilitators of geodynamic processes by providing channels for mantle materials to transmigrate that affect the crust.

    The first is limited as only certain regions are linked in this manner, and may certainly transfer from point to point above ground, where the ionosphere may play a key role,and/or connected by flux tubes such as: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQd1l6ZTU0VklDQ2M/view?usp=sharing
    The image is one of many I have taken screenshots, the flux tubes penetrate the ionosphere ‘ionospheric pierce points’ generating plasma irregularities that can show up on ionospheric scintillation maps. Here are a few more examples: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQbzdUM19lS3VMY1U/view?usp=sharing
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQc0N4b2xtLUhuLVk/view?usp=sharing

    Or, even another possibility may even be when two regions [like the Fiji and Chile pairing] ionospheric F2 layer reach the same height and are high in electron count, it may generate a resonance or frequency that bonds them temporarily, triggers one or the other and a ‘copycat’ quake occurs a short time later: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQMnA0VmNhNmRzR0E/view?usp=sharing

    Each fault will have its own acoustic resonance frequency. If a signal arrives at this frequency, the fault that without perturbation would be quiet will trigger an earthquake. It already occurs in nearby regions, it may also be in part an explanation in this case, a variation of a “flux transfer event.” How earthquakes can trigger copycat quakes 1000 kilometres away: https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn28200-how-earthquakes-can-trigger-copycat-quakes-1000-kilometres-away/
    flux transfer event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_transfer_event

    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
    • This reply was modified 7 years, 5 months ago by HookEcho.
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