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11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 22, 2017 at 2:57 pm #3228
Two proton spikes have occurred at 09:37 UTC – 11:02 UTC… first = Sunrise Offshore Bio Bio, it is also Dusk at this time on 6.5 New Guinea epicentre 7/11 (significant association !). Second = Sunrise Ecuador / Haiti, or the combined times = Sunset / Dusk Eastern China.
Four names in the news yesterday including “Subc0der”… well done again Tayrance !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 22, 2017 at 10:35 pm #3233Chris… 5.0 44 miles North of Rhodes Basin, Western Turkey… I think I have stopped making mistakes now 🙂
Dusk on this epicentre occurred at 16:25 UTC… Longitude of the sun at this time was 69.183’W. The opposite to this is 110.816’E
On 110.816’E – 32.074’N Fangxian, Hubie Province, Eastern China, it was Sunset / Dusk at 09:37 UTC – 11:02 UTC respectively… same times as the proton spikes reported above !
When the event occurred at 20:22:54 UTC, it was Dusk on the 6.1 Ascension epicentre 11/11… and Solar Noon on the Mendocino Ridge, off the Coast of California !
Also, there is something very prominent on 175’E / 5’W… I haven’t nailed it yet, but I don’t think its NZ
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 23, 2017 at 4:18 am #3234Lester,
A pop in Ecuador too! I saw the that Turkey spot hit as well as NZ. Guess what also hit…Yemen. I had a Mag spike around0300 and 0500 UTC on NOV 21 that had a line that drew my attention to Mozambique and off the north coast of California, but it was Yemen. Recent OLR image released today also shows a retreat from California to its north coast line. Shall we shift the forecast for Cali? I renewed it for some of the observations I had been making during your brief break.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 23, 2017 at 3:24 pm #3238Heads up for Biobio Chile! Mag flux today shows a terminator line crossing over the region, slight TEC signature beginning to build, a slight OLR to moderate showed up multiple times in that zone with the strongest just on the 20th. If the weather creeps up the Chilean south coast like it’s doing, then I am curious about what this will look like in the next day or two.
Any proton readings or t-sequencing lining up on your end?
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115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 4:28 pm #3240I noted two significant contacts on the 18th – 20th Nov, in both cases the moon was on 175’E. I ran a T sequence on Cook Strait NZ, and found nothing that grabbed my attention… doesn’t mean there is nothing there though! There is the possibility this is West of Fiji (close to my forecast)… found nothing in the Aleutians!. I then ran a T sequence on Gibraltar and found the following…
Sunrise on 5.580’E – 35.900’N Strait of Gibraltar 07:08 UTC 23/11
Sunset on 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre 19/11 … 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 6.8 Tonga epicentre 4/11 ……………. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 5.6 Tonga Region epicentre 14/11 …….. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Dusk on 6.0 Samoa Islands Region 20/11 ………. 07:08 UTC 23/11
Sunset on 5.5 Off E Coast of N Island, NZ ……. 07:08 UTC 23/11Still working on this, but the data seems to be suggestive that something is here in the Gibraltar Region !
Hollister is a tricky one… as I mentioned before, these episodes of small but constant activity can fool you. At the moment, it seems to have gone to sleep again, but the 5.0 Turkey event yesterday suggests otherwise!… Sunrise / Sunset in both locations occurred at 14:52 UTC (52 felts were recorded for the Turkey event). Lets play a bluff on this one… an aspect change occurred today at 13:12 UTC which matches Dawn in the Santa Barbra Region of LA. If an event occurs here in the next 24 hours (2.5+), it will be another sign that Hollister is still active… because they share the same Sunset. I have a couple of forecasts up the coast from here, so if your data is telling you something further North, I should go with your hunch and try an independent forecast. The quiet CA period combined with the proton anomaly, makes me believe Hollister is a footprint. Might be best to stay put, and renew the forecast when either of us has something new to offer!
Apologies for my dramatic brief time out, I believe I was just short of sleep. I don’t think I’m 100% yet because I missed that 5.1 Hubei Province, China by 74 miles… I’ll try and do better next time 🙂
Happy Thanks Giving to you and your family… and the rest of the guy’s here at Quake Watch…
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 6:21 pm #3241After rechecking the numbers… the data fits better with 73.270’W – 35.670’S Maule, Chile… approx 110 miles North of where I originally thought.
BTW – do you still have Prince Edward Island covered ?… been noting a lot of T sequence hits here during this week !
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 23, 2017 at 7:01 pm #32425.6 Ryukyu Islands…
The good news… Sunrise on this epicentre at 21:50 UTC, matches Dawn at 21:50 UTC in Fangxian, Hubie China… which means Fangxian is a Viable target!
Dusk on this epicentre at 09:48 UTC, matches Dawn in Port-Au-Prince Bay, Haiti, and Dawn in Guayaquila, Ecuador… Dawn in Quinto occurred at 09:44 UTC 🙂
The bad news… I missed it by 21 km’s with my forecast 🙁
Score: 0115 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 24, 2017 at 9:59 pm #3256Whoa… not sure if I am having more fun watching each other reach these spots separately or comparing notes. For the joint forecast. You asking about that I forecasted Mona passage before you? My determination was based on magnetic fluxing with both solar and lunar terminator lines, a rather large OLR anomaly that showed up with unanswered blots, and recent weather patterns in the area with the pending coronal hole approach. That’s my rational for 6+.
However, a much larger TEC signal is off the southern facing coast of Japan from ryukyu /hachijo jima/ Tokyo that is grabbing my attention. My prince Edward spot expired, but I might go back in because there is TEC build up and OLR again in the polar regions, but South of Australia is showing it too! Yet, it’s more faint than Haiti/japan and Indonesia regions right now.
I don’t know Lester. Saw Tayrence’s post too. Some agreement in his post as well with sites you, I, and Ben have going on right now.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 24, 2017 at 10:53 pm #3257Hey Chris… I am also enjoying how we each perceive a location as a viable target… like playing a game of seismic chess 🙂
I have to make this brief due to unannounced guests visiting 🙁 here’s a heads up… you see the 5.1 Western Turkey, input the event time of 21:50 UTC in your map. The Dawn threshold running through Eastern china is exactly on my Fangxian, China forecast. In the west, it is Sunset on Mona Passage, but coming back to Japan, the Sunrise threshold runs through South Coast Kyushu. I know it has serious potential and was going to predict there today, but my Friday quota is a bit maxed out at the moment 🙂 … it may be something that interests “you”.
This Turkey event like the last one, has a T connection to Hollister… I think we will be going back there sometime soon !!
Score: 0115 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 25, 2017 at 12:55 am #3262Speaking of Mag flux for me…a UTC I was working with had a sun terminator passing through Kyushu and the spot where a blot popped in sea of ohkhotsk. Couldn’t resist a Bill and Ted post since you mentioned Hollister in Connection to it. Kyushu is stronger with some precursors I look for, but hedged the bet with the Vostok Russia inclusion since OLR and forecasted weather patterns go over both regions.
I hope my choosing Mona over the prince was the right thing to do.
Score: 011 pts11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 25, 2017 at 12:16 pm #3267Chris… what worries me about Port-Au-Prince is that I might actually be right!. Each mag 5 or above that occurs, I try to follow the trail. Most events take you in totally different directions, but some times you happen on the right contacts and follow them like a circuit board e.g. here are 3 times related to today, to try on your map; 09:52 UTC – on this map you can see Dawn is within the region of Haiti, but the reason this time is significant is because of the sun’s longitude of 28.76’E. This is the longitude of the two Western Turkey events, so in effect it is solar Noon here. At 11:07 UTC – you can see that it is Sunrise in Port-Au-Prince Bay, and over the last two weeks the angle of the terminator has shifted away from Ecuador, and remained on Port-Au-Prince… Finally at 03:48 UTC, the map here shows the Dawn Threshold transiting Greece. On the 22nd, a 4.4 was felt here by 43 people, yesterday (24th), a 4.6 occurred with 5 reports. This Dawn threshold at 03:48 UTC runs through both epicentres.
All these locations are connected by a 5.0 event that occurred in Sulawesi, Indonesia this morning (my time). If you check the times again, you will see it is Sunset 09:52 UTC… Dusk 11:07 UTC and Solar Noon 03:48 UTC on 119.965’E – 1.228’S 38km SSE of Palu, Indonesia.
A felt event like a 4.4 in Greece, doesn’t always mean a significant event is going to occur at this location, its just picking up the source from the other end of the line. In this case it may be Palu, because Indonesia is notorious for big events… and Haiti is on the same line !!
On the other hand, I got a 3.0 in Maule, Chile using the same method… so why do I bother 🙂
I appreciate the joint forecast in Japan… wasn’t my initial intention but I am pleased to be associated to someone like you 🙂
Score: 0115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 25, 2017 at 4:13 pm #3269Lester… That looks interesting. Just did a quick review of the last big quake in that region and a quake in Iran, plus the deep M4’s in a similar pattern, and a quake in China. Quick glimpse of the seismic history shows this region being more active starting around this time. Could mean it’s time to get started on it’s seismic cycle. That’s lining up. The last big quake was in Murghob, Tajikistan was not too far from this time back in 2015… interesting. The OLR Anomaly chart is showing this odd procession, almost like its dancing, taking a few steps toward that region to only then take a step back. Currently that sits over Iran. If that continues, then it should meet that region around the time you forecast… maybe a day before it holds and grows. I am not seeing much of any weather pattern, mostly highs. However, that OLR in the area is there in Iran is there without much percitipable water and right over the 4.1 near bandar abas…interesting. This spot line with a few other areas I have been looking at when the Magnetic fluxing hit a relaxation point… could be important for build up in the coming days…
Count me in! 🙂 Haven’t taken a trip in the mountains for a while since the pattern is tough to pin down for me. I would be happy to accompany you.
Score: 011 pts115 ptslesterNovember 25, 2017 at 6:00 pm #3271Oh! that’s excellent… and good intel!. The last time I was in real mountains apart from these in Scotland, was the Troodos range in Cyprus, I ended up getting lost for six hours until I came across a monastery… they gave me rice cakes and water for my supper 🙂 nice people…
There is a break in the Temp data (SWEPAM) at 14:59 UTC… it is Sunset on the 5.0 Turkey epicentre, Dawn on the 5.5 New Zealand epicentre 22/11… and Sunrise on Benito St Hollister !!
Don’t beat yourself up about Haiti, it is one thing being exited because you are confident something is there. But when an event occurs on your chosen location, and heaven forbid the aftermath is in your face… you can’t help feeling remorseful. ACE contacts and T sequences keep landing there, that is why I increased the magnitude. I can find earthquakes in Turkey and China out of the blue, but I don’t get them all right… I am personally hoping this is one of them !
I’ll be back on later with some Tajikistan data for you…
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 25, 2017 at 6:54 pm #3272Great! Yes, the aftermath does make me sad. I have a coworker with family from Columbia. So, he’ll ask me things on occasion. I know a few people in Northern California gave them a call. Good time to prep a little given there is s long term forecast for California in the coming year.
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