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115 ptslesterNovember 25, 2017 at 8:43 pm #3273
Okay Chris… thought I would start with an aspect change in the MAG that occurred today at 13:13 UTC. You recall I mentioned one at 13:12 UTC on the 13th, and related this to Santa Barbra LA. Combining these times over two days, I found they correspond to Dawn on 118.970’W – 35.580’N at some place called “Halfway House” on Granite Rd, 20 km’s North of Bakersfield. The location I have been working on in Tajikistan is called “Jarf” on co-ordinates 70.330’E – 38.345’N. Sunrise in Jarf today occurred at 02:15 UTC, Dusk at Halfway House occurred at the same time… a medium event here might be a possibility!
Here is today’s T sequence for Jarf, Tajikistan…
Dawn at 0039 UTC = Solar Noon on 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre 19/11
Sunrise at 02:15 UTC = Solar Noon on 6.5 New Guinea epicentre 7/11 – Dawn on 7.3 Iraq epicentre 12/11
Sunset at 12:02 = Dusk on 6.4 Eastern Xizang epicentre 17/11
Dusk at 13:35 UTC = no correlation to the current modelSolar Noon at 07:07 UTC =
Sunset on 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre 19/11
Sunset on 5.5 Off E Coast of N island NZ epicentre 22/11
Sunset on 5.9 Off East Coast of Honshu Japan epicentre 12/11
Dusk on 6.8 Tonga epicentre 4/11
Dusk on 6.0 Samoa Islands Region epicentre 20/11
Dusk on 5.6 Tonga Region epicentre 14/11
Sunrise on 5.210’W – 35.940’N Strait of Gibraltar !!Reads like a grocery list for Harrods London, or perhaps Beverly Hills CA 🙂 either way, this location sounds like prime seismic real-estate, with the potential to be a 7+.
I found a couple of interesting connections here whilst playing about with the times…
Sunset and Dusk in Jarf at 12:02 UTC – 13:35 UTC corresponds to Dusk / Dawn on 165.290’E – 50.440’S Auckland Islands Region. This is actually 57 km’s West of Auckland, and 64 km’s East of my forecast there !
Try this one on your map… Dawn and Sunset in Jarf at 00:39 UTC – 12:02 UTC corresponds to Dusk / Sunrise on 88.600’W – 14.010’N on the El Salvador-Honduras Border. This region is not known for significant earthquakes, but the position changes with the angle of the terminator. If we look to the future with the assumption that a 6+ event has occurred in Tajikistan, this what I came up with…
On 29th Nov, Dawn and Sunset in Jarf will be 00:42 UTC – 12:01 UTC, if you check these times on the map again, you will see that they now correspond to 88.350’W – 12.320’N which is off the coast of El Salvador, in a notoriously seismic area. I ran the sequence through 21 days… from the border with Honduras, it continues to the coastline and out into the Pacific. Should a Tajikistan event occur… it might be worth monitoring El Salvador at the end of the month !
Lastly… again on the pretence an event has occurred, on the 8th – 9th Dec Dawn in Jarf occurs at 00:50 UTC, on these two days “only” it is also Sunset in Hollister at this time. For five days between 2nd – 5th Dec, Sunrise in Jarf occurs at 02:22 UTC, again at this time it is Dusk in Hollister on these same days. Through both these periods, Tajikistan shares a parallel T contact with the 7.3 Iraq event !!
Cool scenario if a 6+ does occur… Hollister is the named target, but in truth anywhere on the West Coast related to these threshold times is just as likely to be a vulnerable target.
It might be reasonable to assume the 5.7 Vanuatu was in fact the prominent signature I was referring to… looks like I might have blow another forecast on Gibraltar for nothing!
I didn’t mention Prince Edward Island here… because unlike you, I am kicking myself because I can’t get away from it… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 25, 2017 at 9:36 pm #3275A 3.2 was felt by 30 people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the T sequence shows Sunset at 15:15 UTC… Dusk on the 7.3 Iraq epicentre at this time. At 16:56 UTC Dusk at this location is the same as Sunrise on the 6.8 Tonga epicentre. Bosnia and Herzegovina share a parallel T connection with the 7.3 Iraq event… the terminator is transferring energy from post seismic locations !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 26, 2017 at 3:38 pm #3282Nice Lester… I haven’t been as active as I probably could have been. Threw my back out and trying to focus on recuperating. I was trying to monitor TEC in the region and there is a very odd rise of it that looks like it blooms over the Seychelles, then spills northward toward Iran/Baku Azerbaijan/Turkmenistan. Then it does a shift over to the west most part of Tajikistan/Pakistan/Afghanistan.
It’s the largest nocturnal TEC signature so far next to ones in areas of the usual suspects including off the south coast of Japan into Philippines, PNG /Indonesia, South America.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 26, 2017 at 6:15 pm #3283You have my sympathy Chris… When you are sat on your couch watching TV tonight, try placing a hot water bottle behind you, it helps to relieve the pain… I suffer sciatica attacks and know more about back pain remedies than earthquakes 🙂
Some years ago, I worked on a trigger theory related to high mag quakes… I managed a 45% success rate on correctly predicting the time of event (within a 2 hour margin). But after 3 years I decided to drop it because I was never able to pin the time to the correct event location. A few days ago, I decided to review my old file and do a work up that included any new developments I had made. I used it to do the math on Tajikistan, and came up with a time of 20:00 UTC (+/- 1 hour) 28th Nov… this is why I told you I was posting a forecast on the 28th. I don’t know if I have done this right, but the math lands on Tajikistan and Fiji (my forecast), or simply put, an event at one location depends on an event occurring at the other… Fiji before Tajikistan or vice versa !
Unfortunately, my old data “now” is like trying to read French, so don’t take me to seriously on this one… just thought it might be interesting to give it a try again!
There have now been 2 events in El Salvador today, so the math may be a little off on the T angle, or my co-ordinates in Tajikistan need to be further East!… either way, if I got here, then the math will be right for the West Coast US. Hope you read this in time to catch the aspect change in the MAG data at 17:42 UTC, the sun is on longitude 88.633’W… this is Solar Noon Offshore El Salvador on the co-ordinates I posted to you !!
I noticed you got a hit in Burma… those 4+’s are so frustrating.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 26, 2017 at 8:27 pm #3286Chris… 63 felt reports for a 4.2 in Bulgaria, Dawn at 03:49 UTC is the same as the two Greek epicentres… it is also Solar Noon in Palu, Sulawesi at this time !!. Sunset 14:54 UTC at this epicentre is the same as the Turkey epicentres. Dusk occurred at 16:34 UTC, at this time, it was also Dawn on the 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre… another big connection !
Central Solomon’s has had 3 ACE hits today… time of event for Bulgaria has just made it 4…
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 26, 2017 at 11:13 pm #328830 felt reports for a 4.9 Valparaiso, Chile… Solar Noon occurred here at 16:34 UTC, same time as Dusk in Bulgaria and Dawn on the 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre (as reported above!). Time of event was 22:15:13 UTC… Sunset in Port-Au-Prince Bay, Haiti occurred at 22:15 UTC !!.
Chris… on 11th Nov, I posted a list of lunar contacts to you relating to Central Java. For every Sunset in Haiti between 12th Nov and the present, there has been an equally timed Sunrise on Central Java… I also have many Sunset / Dusk contacts too. Is there anything in your data for this location ? there is also a dodgy looking volcano just East of here too !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 27, 2017 at 1:08 am #3290Just for a bit of fun… I ran a T sequence for Mt Agung in Bali. Sunset and Dusk occurs today at 10:23 UTC – 11:39 UTC, interestingly, these times are a perfect match for Dawn and Sunrise on 84.55’W – 9.60’N… these are the co-ordinates of the 6.7 epicentre in Costa Rica !!
Sunrise at 21:52 UTC matches Dawn on my Fangxian China forecast and Sunset on your Mona Passage… and Dawn here at 20:34 UTC is the same time as Dawn at Sendai Railway station, Kyushu 🙂
It will be interesting to see if further correlations with Costa Rica are responsible for a future eruption !
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 27, 2017 at 4:29 am #3292It’s been interesting reading your posts after only getting some time for a quick forecast in Fiji now that I can review some material after the fact. Our game of seismic chess seems to be going piece for piece. 🙂
I dropped Mona passage, but renewed Jakarta and tagged along for Fiji. I’ve been seeing some TEC in Java. But, an interesting OLR and TEC signature made me smile over our shared Japan forecast, yet I have seen a connection to Wuhan in Hubei province and you were already there! Nice! 🙂
Just to note Turkmenistan region has a quake with the OLR I mentioned on its way to Tajikistan. However, missing data in the latest image is frustrating my tracking it’s growth. Still some TEC spillage into that zone where Tajikistan and Turkmenistan meet. Unanswered blots are also suspicious.
I am not sure what I am exactly seeing for Indonesia and this strong TEC that keeps appearing over the Seychelles/Madagascar/ Chagos! When it grows to a certain size, I see what looks like spillage into the Middle East and Central Asia, then it laps at Sumatra a Java before their own TEC appears. Then it sometimes looks likes it’s coming out of countries just east of the Congo to Somalia basin!
I have so much more to say, but family is calling me. I will hope to keep up here. Can’t help but remember saying before about something big for December?
Chat later. Thanks for the back support idea. Trying it now.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 27, 2017 at 2:17 pm #3295That something more I wanted to say is about South Africa. There is something about the TEC signatures and a recurrence of OLR around those two points along South Africa. I went to images as far back as 11/15 and noticed a steady growth/ recurrence for both. And, I have two magnetometer readings that were strong (namely nov 17 around 1022 UTC) that had The Sun over what seems to be Cape Town).
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 28, 2017 at 4:50 am #3300Oh man Lester! Guayaquil popped an M5. Had the right city again, but was off on the timing and magnitude. Another spot that I chose not to extend past 6 or 7 days because certain conditions seemed to change. Lots of mid 4 to 5’s… guess the lithosphere has to build up some more energy after all.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 28, 2017 at 12:18 pm #3301Hey Chris
Its not a shift, it is an addition… I’m sure something is in the Luzhin Stait, but I needed the 250 margin to cover the ridge. This meant it also overlapped the B&T forecast… I was to tired to explain yesterday from being at the hospital, but I thought I would bring you along for the ride anyway !
Tough luck on Ecuador… but you can have the satisfaction of knowing you did make the right choice to pick Guayaquil. Here are a couple of points I observed about the Guayaquil event…
Sunset and Dusk in Guayaquil occurred at 23:16 UTC – 00:30 UTC… this is an exact match to Sunset / Dusk on the 6.7 Costa Rica epicentre. The felt 2.5 event in Vancouver, and the 4.1 in Gulf of California share a parallel Sunset connection to Dusk in Guayaquil. If you check this on your map, Sunrise and Dusk in Guayaquil at 11:04 UTC – 00:30 UTC, corresponds to Sunrise / Sunset on the Bhutan-Megalaya border region… similar scenario to Tajikistan and El Salvador, might be worth watching !. Also, if you input Dusk in Guayaquil at 00:30 UTC, and the event time of 02:04 UTC… they both match Dawn / Sunrise in Eastern Tajikistan on 72’E, this is within the margin I posted.
Here’s a little on my tough luck… strong signal at 07:46 UTC 24/11, the map shows dawn on Maule, Chile so I decided to post a forecast. What I didn’t see was the Sunset threshold on the 6.0 New Ireland Region epicentre !. I reactivated my Crete forecast yesterday because a significant signal at 03:34 UTC placed Dusk here at this time ( it was also Sunrise in Cape Town !), the map also shows it was Dusk on the 5.4 epicentre in Southern Alaska… right train, wrong stop !!
Don’t forget to watch an old man make a fool of himself, and predict a 6+ at 20:00 UTC today (+/- 1 hour)… might be a bad chess move !
Knight to queen’s bishop four… I remember that from an old Stewart Granger movie 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 28, 2017 at 2:49 pm #3302M 5.6 Norwegian Sea… Dawn and Dusk here occurs at 06:09 UTC – 17:05 UTC, this also corresponds to Sunrise / Sunset on 176.650’W – 17.810’S 226 km’s East of Tubou, Fiji… you might have chosen wisely here Chris !
Solar Noon on the 5.6 epicentre occurred at 11:38 UTC… at this time, it was Dusk on the caldera of Mt Agung !!
The event occurred at 13:15:44 UTC… this time also matches Dawn at Halfway House, 20 km’s North of Bakersfield. If you compare this time to the one’s in the first post on this page, and take into account no 2.5+ quakes have occurred on the California West coast, since the 2.5 Santa Rosa event at 17:22 UTC on 26/11… it might add up to something !
Score: 0115 pts11 pts11 pts115 ptslesterNovember 29, 2017 at 10:47 am #3308Well that was fun… I didn’t get a 6 but an aspect change did occur in the Tromso data at 20:00 UTC. A 2.7 also occurred in Parkfield of all places at 20:12 UTC… this was the first one greater than mag 2.5 since 17:22 UTC 26/11. Following the 2.7 Parkfield, was a 2.6 in Nevada at 21:34 UTC. The period between these two events was 1 hour 22 minutes, I did a global search for a Sunset / Dusk period spanning this time… and was surprised where it landed. If you refer to the Norwegian Sea data above, it shows a Sunrise / Sunset connection East of Tubou, Fiji, I refined this to co-ordinates 176.655’E – 18.353’S. The Sunrise / Sunset times remain the same at 17:05 UTC – 06:09 UTC respectively, Dusk at this location occurred at 07:31 UTC… from 06:09 UTC to 07:31 UTC = 1 hour 22 minutes !!
Dawn at this location today occurs at 15:40 UTC, at this time the moon is on longitude 69.916’E… Tajikistan !!
I noticed a 4.2 East coast Kamchatka… maybe we’ll get lucky 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 29, 2017 at 2:25 pm #3311Yes, I think I tried calling a quake like that inside of what I thought was going to be the time of current sheet changing polarity, but it was fun for me too. I like trying to time things with new moon and full moon after reading one of hook’s research posts. Speaking of full moon…seismicity uptick and the full moon approaches. I will need to keep a sharp eye on some of my previous posts since a few of them expire 11/30. I think my South Africa carries into the full moon period, but with those pressure cells and TEC reading near Bali, Java, Sumatra and South America I will have to find some time to make some adjustments. I hold out hope for our joint ventures for similar reasons. Quick chat with Hook suggests that there may be global energy potential for two M6+ quakes during this full moon cycle.
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 30, 2017 at 12:56 pm #3319Chris… here is a neat trick. Input 20:00 UTC 28/11 on your map, and place a dot in the centre of the sun and moon… this is the time I said a 6+ may occur. Now input these T sequence times related to the 6.7 Central Mid-Atlantic event, and see how the terminator relates to the dots: Dawn 06:02 UTC… Sunset 19:28 UTC… Solar Noon 13:22 UTC… I didn’t quite pull a rabbit out of the hat, but there may be something to learn from this attempt !
5.4 Pangai, Tonga 11:47 UTC… that was close 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 30, 2017 at 3:55 pm #3325Here’s a little math….
M 5.5 Kuril Islands 22:32:22 UTC 29/11… Sunrise / Sunset today (29th-30th) at this epicentre = 21:34 UTC – 06:35 UTC (first point of Sunset contact actually occurs at 06:32 UTC)…21:34 UTC – 06:35 UTC = Length of day 9 hours 1 minute, this equates to 135.283 degrees of Earth’s rotation.
M 6.7 Central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 06:32:50 UTC… Longitude of the sun at this time 78.966’E… longitude of the moon 145.833’W
Measuring East from the sun 78.966’E to 145.833’W = 135.166 degrees.The 6.7 event occurred when the first point Sunset threshold made contact with the 5.5 Kuril epicentre… and the centres of Sun and Moon equalled the same distance apart, as the length of day at said Kuril epicentre !!
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