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11 ptsCounselorNovember 30, 2017 at 11:14 pm #3331
Ahh!
Lester remember when I mention Congo above around the 27th? That just popped a 5. A 4.1 in Dover Delaware USA also popped and ignored a signal for myself related to that too! But, our Kurilsk quake popped and I like the description you provided in where it’s connected. Maybe our forecasted areas are next!
Seems like things are picking up with this full moon!
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 30, 2017 at 11:36 pm #3332Hey Chris,
I have just run a T sequence on the 4.1 Devon, Delaware event, it has interesting correlations to my 20:00 UTC 28/11 6+ attempt…
Dawn on the Delaware epicentre today occurred at 10:28 UTC… at this time, it was Sunrise on the 5.7 Near Coast of Peru epicentre 29/11,and Dusk on the 5.8 Halmahera epicentre 18/11.
Sunrise occurred at 12:06 UTC… it was also dusk at this time on the 6.4 Eastern Xizang epicentre 17/11. On the 28th Nov at 20:00 UTC, the moon was on longitude 4.733’W… at 12:06 UTC today, the sun was on longitude 4.316’W
Sunset occurred at 21:40 UTC… there are no post seismic contacts matching this time, but the moon was on longitude 4.766’W !!
Dusk has just occurred at 23:16 UTC… It was Sunset at this time on the 6.7 Costa Rica epicentre 13/11, Solar Noon on the 5.6 Tonga Region epicentre 14/11… and Dawn in the Prince Edward Island Region 🙂
Solar Noon at 16:52 UTC… is also shared as Solar Noon on the 5.7 Peru epicentre mentioned earlier.
At 21:47 UTC (event time) it was Solar Noon on Anchorage, Alaska, and Sunrise on the Palu Sulawesi epicentre from last week.
I have friends in Delaware, they just messaged me that it was a rough ride. One location here that has recently been mentioned several times is Palu Sulawesi. The T sequence has some big hitters here, but you can bet this will be written off as crustal shift… you’ll see !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2017 at 12:10 am #3333Missed one… Solar Noon on the Delaware epicentre at 16:52 UTC = Sunrise on the 6.8 Tonga epicentre 4/11
The Congo event is a bit of an odd one, it has no T connections!… you worked hard in this region, and deserve to get something.
Leading up to full moon on this occasion may see an uptick in seismic activity, but the sun is also reaching its most Southerly lateral position… I believe this combined with the last full moon before Winter solstice is likely to be the cause of an increase in activity.
The Congo event shares the same Solar Noon as my Rhodes Forecast… there may be hope for me yet 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 1, 2017 at 12:28 am #3334Oh that is a good sign then. If you do mean that little island off the southwestern tip of Turkey, then there had been some OLR activity there a couple of days back. I also have a TEC image that shows a little band that goes from the strait of Gibraltar to Turkey on 11/29 at 23:45 UTC.
As for the congo, maybe for prince edward too, I just need to take the risk and make the post. Just like my eventual reposting for Chagos. I might draw a line from chagos up the South west indian coastline to Gujarat province. I am still smiling over the miss in Congo. Bummed that I missed the chance to forecast it, but the work here is truly paying off.
Mentioned a Stewart Granger to a coworker, who is now seemingly interested in the work I do with you after our hits and near misses, and he mentioned a Bergman movie titled “Winter’s Light”. I think that is what he said. Eerie coincidence because he was talking about the same thing you mentioned about the sun’s position and how it made him think of this movie. He remembered a line about “winter’s light being the most mysterious…etc”.
With my Africa posts I couldn’t help but think of your Out of Africa scenario and movie. Even our pop culture references are lining up.
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2017 at 11:22 am #3338I woke this morning to find a 6.0 had occurred near my New Britain Region forecast, I measured the epicentre as 244 km’s, and couldn’t believe I was in there with 6 km’s to spare. What I hadn’t realised was I had forgotten to include co-ordinates in my “posted” forecast… it is going to be one of those days 🙁
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 1, 2017 at 2:52 pm #3339Oh no! But, you named the island correctly right? I think you may still be able to claim it. I think as long as you have given the Island name of PNG, that Island is small enough for the margin you use I think. Email Ben. Or, post the proclamation for review. Sorry my friend. I am glad you got that one though! I remembered the days of Bougainville #1 when I saw it.
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2017 at 3:03 pm #3340Here’s a little math…
M 6.0 Eastern Iran at 02:32:45 UTC – longitude of the sun at this time was 139.049’E… longitude of the moon was 75.349’W
Measuring East from the moons position, the distance between centre moon and centre sun = 214.399 degrees
214.399 degrees of Earths rotation = 14 hours 14 minutes
14 hours 14 minutes equates to the length of Sunset to Sunrise (30/11 – 1/12) in a lateral corridor between 36.770’N – 36.980’N
The junction of San Benito st & 7th, Hollister, CA is on latitude 36.849’N… Sunset to Sunrise here occurred at 00:50 UTC – 15:04 UTC
00:50 UTC – 15:04 UTC = 14 hours 14 minutes !!
Other prominent locations in the US within this corridor include; Cherokee, Medford, Fairview and Moorland… all in the state of Oklahoma !
On the movie theme… one of my all time favourites is “The Pride and the Passion” (1957) with Cary Grant, Sophia Loren and Frank Sinatra. You don’t know what appreciating a good movie is like, until you have seen this one 🙂 I watched Sinatra perform in the 80’s when he came to London. I also like the new Star Trek movies with Chris Pine… so I am not ready for the nursing home just yet 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2017 at 4:00 pm #3341I appreciate your suggestions about P.N.G., but I will have to chalk this one up as a mistake. I believe in rules and accuracy… this way I remain true to my self and fair in the eyes of others. I know it doesn’t really matter on this site, but it is how I have lived my life, and why I still feel terrible about taking some of the shine off Tayrance’s Moment. A margin of 250 Kilometres is the difference between placing the people of North Island NZ on alert, and having the event occur on South Island NZ were they are unprepared… accuracy counts in this subject, even if its only for fun !
Hope Tayrance uses some of the prize money on a fishing trip, and lands another big catch… his profile picture is starting to look faded 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 1, 2017 at 8:03 pm #3343I will definitely need to check that movie out. I am a movie goer and have enjoyed checking in with some of the classics, especially film noir. I may be young, but I am definitely an old soul. I appreciate the new Star Trek movies as well and happen to have both types of movie genre in my collection. So, yes, don’t check into the nursing home please! 🙂
I agree about Tayrance needing a new photo. I used to go deep sea fishing and I know all to well about updating that latest and greatest catch. He has got to be itching to get back out there!
Well, I believe you got recognition for a near miss one day in the S0 news? I think you deserve a little recognition for this recent miss. I agree about rules, but the impact of any quake does have its effects that are non-homogeneus inside of a circle. Although the quake may have hit where it did, what if the potential was great enough to trigger a Tsunami warning for both sides? I do agree on adhering to strict rules, but I lived through the Northridge quake here in Southern California. There were people next door to me that seemed to have suffered no damage, and people as far away as Santa Monica (forgot to mention downtown LA and farther south) that mentioned being affected. I know that is only one half or a third of the distance relative to PNG/New Britain, but a Tsunami warning would bridge that gap in the space between main PNG and New Britain. I would vote for you to get a mention, even if it is to mention that it was a near miss.
Anyway, that is my positive look at it and you have done a lot to support others like myself and subcoder when we are down on our luck with this. You actually posted. I may have said what I did about the Congo in here, but that truly doesn’t count since we are on the topic of rules. You felt that I should get some recognition for my hard work in here mentioning Congo with you in these discussion forums. So, there is a small corner in So-cal here that is cheering you on. Good work!
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115 ptslesterDecember 2, 2017 at 3:52 pm #3347Chris… I am going to print your post and frame it… keep it as proof that somebody actually likes me 🙂 . You are too kind, and your argument is sound… I shall keep this in mind for the future. I prepared a forecast earlier, and was so busy concentrating on making sure I included co-ordinates, that I inadvertently typed the wrong month in the title!
My math today is seriously focused on something prominent on longitude 11.299’W or 168.699’E, I am 90% sure on this… remember, I only have a problem with the stops, but I know where the track is going!. Longitude 168.699’E is the same longitude as 7.0 Loyalty Islands event, but I think this is Nikol’Skoye again. The map time I used was 12:34 UTC 30/11, you might see something here that ties in with area’s you are working on.
On the fishing theme… in the late 80’s, I used to go wreck fishing off the East coast of England, from a town called Scarborough (as depicted in the song!). Interesting that three of us have (had) a different subject in common, and here we are now, another different subject… and we are still trying to catch a big one 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 2, 2017 at 4:49 pm #3348Here’s something interesting… I noted a significant contact at 21:40 UTC 30/11… this is Sunset time on the 4.1 Delaware epicentre, that occurred “8 minutes” later. Yesterday (1st Dec), I logged another significant signal at 21:42 UTC. It is only a short span, but both times coincide with Sunset on 15.234’W – 58.410’S Bullard Fracture Zone, which is approx 600 km’s East of the South Sandwich Islands. It stands to reason that Delaware may have been in the line of fire to something bigger… one to watch perhaps!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 2, 2017 at 5:01 pm #3349I have been monitoring a large TEC signature that covers that area, but the area appears to cover Mendoza Argentina and near point conception Chile. I will share the image below. On the real-time footage it almost seemed to flow out from the Atlantic quake zone.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/ChXbz7WqJe9jm73m2
This confused me and I picked the spots you probably saw in my recent South America forecast. Then there was the 4.8 in South sandwich the next day, but it is at a depth that’s questionable 35km. Not a blot but could be a foreshock. This TEC flow is still flashing now. Want to go Bill&ted in this?
Score: 011 pts115 pts11 ptsCounselorDecember 2, 2017 at 6:02 pm #3352Ok Lester here is what I have…
A low pressure nearby now, but a tighter on should be forming up and approaching that area by the end of 3/12. Mag fluxes that has a sunrise 1/12 approximately 0450 UTC, sun over the region at 1300-1354 on 1/12.
No solid OLR, but there was a faint signature approaching that zone. Could grow just yet. No blot, but that depth has me curious, especially with the track you just added for this line.
The TEC image I shared above is a still being observed for that area, including Argentina and southern Chile. Frequency is also jumping to the higher end when The Sun is over that spot.
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 2, 2017 at 8:22 pm #3354Chris… I have submitted in proclamations as you suggested, and included a little humour on your part. You may have noticed I do this quite a lot, its the kind of person I am and it breaks the formality of the subject. However English and American humour can have some differences in meaning. I tell you this now because I once told Tayrance after he had been away for a long period, that people here had missed him, jokingly I told him I wasn’t one of them (English Humour)… he hasn’t spoken to me since 🙂 . I was a fan of “Cheers” with Ted Danson, but there were many jokes in this that I didn’t understand… so I know how this works and would never intentionally offend you!
Back to business… to check the T sequence for the Bullard Fracture Zone, I had to go back to 29th October, because on the 30th this region entered its daylight period… so no Dusk / Dawn contact. Strangely, I had to go “Back to the Future” again to test the correlations against Nov / Dec events (perhaps we should have called ourselves “Doc & Marty 🙂 ).
Dawn on the fracture zone at 01:04 UTC 29/10 = Dawn on the 6.0 Eastern Iran epicentre 1/12
Sunrise ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 05:12 UTC 29/10 = Dawn on the 6.1 Ascension Islands epicentre 11/11
Dusk ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 00:28 UTC 29/10 = Solar Noon on the 7.0 Loyalty Islands epicentre 19/11Coming back to the present, the only correlation I found was Sunrise at 04:06 UTC, corresponds to Solar Noon on Mt Agung, Bali… which may have some significance!. Our combined data suggests potential here, so I think we should go for it… I will let you do the honours.
I might give my garden duties a miss tomorrow and practice some loops on my skateboard… if I am not on here by 18:00 UTC, you will know I wasn’t joking 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 3, 2017 at 6:34 pm #3363Here’s a little math on the 6.0 Ecuador event 3/12
T sequence…
Dawn on the 6.0 Ecuador epicentre at 09:54 UTC = Dawn in Port-Au-Prince Bay, Haiti
Sunrise on ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 11:08 UTC = Sunrise in Port-Au-Prince City, Haiti
Sunset on ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 23:16 UTC = Sunset on 6.7 Costa Rica epicentre 13/11
Dusk on ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 00:31 UTC = Dusk on 6.7 Costa Rica epicentre 13/11
Solar Noon on ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, at 17:12 UTC = Sunrise on 6.0 Samoa Islands epicentre 20/11The 6.0 Ecuador quake occurred at 11:19:07 UTC… longitude of the sun was 7.699’E… longitude of the moon was 174.383’W
Measuring East from centre moon to centre sun = 182.083 degrees
182.083 degrees = 12 hours 8 minutes of Earth’s rotation
The equivalent Sunrise to Sunset period of 12 hours 8 minutes occurs in a lateral corridor between 0.490’S – 1.010’S
USGS data shows the 6.0 Ecuador event occurred on 0.485’S
Sunrise on the epicentre at 11:08 UTC, to Sunset at 23:16 UTC = 12 hours 8 minutes !!
The opposite Sunset / Dusk period to Dawn / Sunrise on the epicentre, occurs on 119.980’E – 1.220’S, this is the epicentre of the 4.9 / 5.0 events that occurred in Palu, Sulawesi on 25th November !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 3, 2017 at 9:51 pm #3364Chris… at the time of this post, I have only just managed to get SO news to play on my PC, you can’t imagine how I felt when my name was mentioned. I am not use to people talking and supporting me in my stead. In my miss spoken attempt to relay a better understanding between us, I fear I have just dug a deeper hole for myself… and I am hoping this is not the case. You have my up most appreciation, and my apologies if I have gotten our lines crossed again.
I have just got use to the fact that we work well together, we haven’t hit anything yet 🙂 but we will do eventually. I have been doing this quake tracking on my own for too long… I didn’t realise how nice it was to have company !!
Score: 011 ptsCounselorDecember 4, 2017 at 6:46 am #3368No lines crossed… have been busy with fam this weekend. I get your humor because my one set of grandparents were from Norwich and Kent. My grandpa was great with the dry humor.
Even without a combined hit yet, it looked a couple came close. I got a little validation in the form of Ben’s Map today. I thought I was beginning to go crazy seeing things over in Africa, but I see he’s highlighted some parts I currently have, and previously had. Using what I have that found me crossing paths with you too, perhaps I am finally getting some solid footing with those of you who have been doing this for much longer. Looking forward to get a couple more hits whether as Bill or counselor.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2017 at 9:02 pm #3372I did something interesting today, I made a list of event times related to all 6+ earthquakes that occurred between 1st Nov and 1st Dec. Then I began to correlate them to see if they led anywhere… I have done this before, but I was quite surprised with the result this time!. I hope you can follow this…
9/11 07:42:10 UTC – M 6.0 Izu Islands Region, Japan
27/11 07:11:14 UTC – M 6.0 New Ireland Region, P.N.G.07:42 UTC – 07:11 UTC = Dawn on 78.328’W – 44.654’S West Chile Rise, on the stated event dates
T sequence – Solar Noon on West Chile Rise 17:05 UTC 4/12 = Dawn on 165.937’E – 12.399’S Santa Cruz Islands 17:05 UTC 4/12
……………………………………………………………………………………1/11 00:09:30 UTC – M 6.1 Loyalty Islands Region
20/11 00:09:25 UTC – M 6.0 Loyalty Islands Region00:09 UTC – 00:09 UTC = Dusk on 79.715’W – 9.180’N Aguas Claras, Panama, on the stated event dates
T sequence – Solar Noon on Aguas Claras, Panama 17:05 UTC 19/11 = Dawn on ,,,,, – ,,,,, Santa Cruz Islands 17:05 UTC 19/11
……………………………………………………………………………………13/11 02:28:22 UTC – M 6.7 Costa Rica
1/12 02:32:45 UTC – M 6.0 Eastern Iran02:28 UTC – 02:32 UTC = Dawn on 30.636’E – 1.212′ N Lake Albert, Uganda, on the stated event dates
T sequence – Dusk on Lake Albert, Uganda 17:05 UTC 19/11 = Dawn on ,,,,, – ,,,,, Santa Cruz Islands 17:05 UTC 19/11
……………………………………………………………………………………..4/11 09:00:19 UTC – M 6.8 Tonga
19/11 09:25:47 UTC – M 6.3 Loyalty Islands
19/11 15:09:04 UTC – M 6.6 Loyalty Islands09:00 UTC – 09:25 UTC = Dusk on 172.410’E – 40.300’S Off N Coast of S Island, NZ, on the stated event times
15:09 UTC = Dawn on the stated co-ordinates for South Island, NZ, on the same day as 09:25 UTC
T sequence – Sunrise on South Island, NZ 17:05 UTC 19/11 = Dawn on ,,,,, – ,,,,, Santa Cruz Islands 17:05 UTC 19/11
………………………………………………………………………………………Today’s T sequence for 165.937’E – 12.399’S North New Hebrides Trench, Santa Cruz Islands Region 4/12
Dawn 17:05 UTC = Sunrise on M 6.0 Samoa Islands epicentre 20/11
Sunset 07:10 UTC = Solar Noon on longitude 70.330’E (Tajikistan !)
Dusk 08:30 UTC = Sunset on M 6.5 New Guinea P.N.G. epicentre 7/11
Solar Noon 00:48 UTC = Dawn on 70.330’E – 38.345’N Region of Jarf, Tajikistan !!You have four combinations landing on the Santa Cruz Islands… and three of them on the same day 19/11. In turn, the Santa Cruz Islands have landed two hits on our Tajikistan location. There is one more combination that is unrelated to the above, but is related to an event today in East Timore that may lead to something bigger occurring because the 7’s are in it !.
12/11 18:18:17 UTC – M 7.3 Iran-Iraq Border region
20/11 18:51:07 UTC – M 6.0 Samoa Islands Region
19/11 22:43:30 UTC – M 7.0 Loyalty Islands Region18:18 UTC – 18:51 UTC = Sunrise on 141.290’W – 66.588’N West of Fort Yukon, Alaska, on the stated event times
22:43 UTC = Sunset today 4/12 on stated co-ordinates West of Fort Yukon, Alaska
T sequence – Solar Noon West of Fort Yukon 21:17 UTC 4/12 = Sunrise on 123.009’E – 9.626’S M 5.3 East Timor epicentre 4/12There were nineteen 6+ earthquakes between 1st Nov – 1st Dec, fourteen of them are included in this composition… I was too tired to do anything with the rest 🙂
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For you…Today’s T sequence for 18.419’E – 33.924’S City of Cape Town, South Africa
Dawn 01:47 UTC = Sunrise on 33.260’E – 47.740’S Prince Edward Island Region (parallel T connection!)
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Sunset 17:46 UTC = Sunrise on M 5.8 Vanuatu Region epicentre 25/11
Dusk 19:28 UTC = Sunrise on M 6.0 New Ireland Region epicentre 27/11 – Sunset on M 6.5 Mid-Atlantic Ridge epicentre 30/1111 ptsCounselorDecember 6, 2017 at 1:27 am #3378Hey Lester,
Thank you for running a T sequence for one of my spots. It interesting how many of those quakes are correlating together. Something wicked this way comes? Especially in the series quakes you did run. Wonder what will hit once our magnetosphere relaxes.
When you mention that one spot, lake Uganda, I am wondering if that spot is in line with the mag fluxes that led me to Cape Town. I may be in the wrong spot for the larger quake. So many of previous posts only landed me some 4’s and I think a couple of low 5’s.
Anyway, I intended to reply earlier, got sidetracked, and today has been about being vigilant at home I live near one the areas on fire right now in Southern California. My area was under voluntary evacuations, but my family is taking no chances and did just that. I may come back on to review some things later… hopefully before too many of my posts expire.
Can’t have your name be the only one that shows on the forecast board. 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 6, 2017 at 7:47 pm #3380Hi Chris
I was going to sign on as Counselor Gimber and get a few hits for you whilst you were indisposed… then I changed my mind because I didn’t want people thinking you are better than me 🙂
The combinations I posted above I mostly do for mental exercise, but you have to wonder how I came to the results I did. Focus is on the Santa Cruz Islands, but I don’t know if this can be used as a practical basis to forecast an event here!. Following a 6+ trail, and finding correlation with many of these events to one location, is evidence that the terminator plays a “big” part in seismic propagation!
Here’s another one that I have completed today. I tried this a couple of weeks ago when I gave a time for a 6+ event to occur…
On 8th December at 02:20 UTC, the longitude of the sun will be 142.949’E… the moon will be on longitude 28.299’E
Measuring East from centre moon to centre sun = 114.649 degrees
114.649 degrees = 7 hour 40 minutes of Earth’s rotation
7 hours 40 minutes = the length of night, from Dusk to Dawn on latitude 22.716’S… this is the latitude the sun occupies at this time!At 02:20 UTC (+/- 1 hour) on the 8th, I am speculating a 6+ event will occur… or at the very least, an aspect change in online data within +/- 15 minutes of the stated time.
couple of points of interest to our forecasts… two very significant aspect changes have occurred in the MAG data at 16:00 UTC and 17:24 UTC. These times correspond to Dawn / Sunrise on the Fiji Islands which would be my first choice. Then I noticed they also correspond to Sunset / Dusk on the Mozambique coastline… you have something around here I think!
Whilst working on my 6+ formula, I discovered that at 02:23 UTC on the 7th, 8th and 9th December, it will be Dusk on San Benito St, Hollister, at the same time it is Dawn on the 7.3 Iran-Iraq epicentre… if I see anything that makes me nervous, I will activate the forecast again 🙂
I have been watching coverage of the fires on the BBC news… you did the right think evacuating your family
Be safe my friend…
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 6, 2017 at 8:28 pm #3382Another “very” significant aspect change has occurred in the MAG data at 19:50 UTC. My model shows it is Dawn on 5.5 Kuril Islands epicentre 29/11… Dawn on 5.9 East Coast Honshu epicentre 12/11… Sunrise on 6.0 Eastern New Guinea epicentre 1/12… Solar Noon in Los Angeles… and ironically, it is Sunrise on 141.290’W – 66.588’N Fort Yukon region, Alaska !!
I believe an event will occur, that is significant to this map time!
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 6, 2017 at 11:24 pm #3384I have just been working two contact times recorded as 16:52 UTC and 18:20 UTC. I believed they related to New Caledonia… but now I don’t 🙂
16:52 UTC – 18:20 UTC corresponds to Dawn / Sunrise on 163.200’E – 21.980’S Fairway Reef, 192 km’s West of New Caledonia
These times also correspond to Sunset / Dusk on 26.886’E – 24.180’S Two rivers estate, 112 km’s Northeast of Gaborone, South Africa !!
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