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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"November 20, 2017 at 2:14 am #3199Lester – that is an excellent point. I certainly meant no opposition to be born of this. I suppose I was concerned that since I didn’t say anything about Rule #3 it could cause confusion, especially since the 6.5 minimum isn’t fair if I reduced the level to M7.
Ok HERE IS THE OFFICIAL WORD.
1) TAYRENCE WINS THE CONTEST, THE POOL, and THE TICKETS to OTF2018.
2) While the winning pool MUST reset back now, along with the M7.5 threshold, I am willing to also offer that same ticket-prize to the conference to the next winner as well!
Heads up… still lots of work to do, especially given the 2018-2023 forecast from this morning’s news.
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"November 20, 2017 at 12:03 am #3194Let’s have a group decision on something. The epicenter is tough to call, but NOT the ‘affected area’ which has been the rule of thumb since I started. I say this is a hit for the Vanuatu – New Caledonia red line, and there is about 12-15% of the ring of fire on alert at that level. I lowered the contest threshold from M7.5 to M7, but I did not say anything about RULE #3, which states that your alert range cannot include magnitude below M6.5. Here the alert range of magnitude is clearly below that, but is the restriction UNFAIR given the reduced magnitude?
By vote here within reasonable time [24-72 hours] we will ascertain whether RULE #3 should have been shifted to a minimum range allowed of M6.0, in which case Tayrence wins the contest, or not.
Yes or no? – you may explain why but please post your yes or no at the top of the posting to make it easier on me 🙂
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"November 8, 2017 at 4:34 am #3027Forecast Success is Verified.
~15% of the ring of fire was on red alert, and ~7-8% of the entire world. The M6.1+ constraint with the selected regions gave ~ 3-4% chance of success per day by random.
If this type of success can be repeated it would be considered ‘significant.’
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"March 24, 2017 at 3:46 pm #1045When you need to modify or edit alerts, be sure to reply to your original posting. The modifications or edits after posting could make things appear below the level. Imagine if a big quake happens while you are editing… how can anyone argue with a skeptic who says you just went back and changed it. Best practice- use the reply function if you need to change something.
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"March 24, 2017 at 3:44 pm #1044ALSO – very important to make your changes as replies to your original message. If you claim a hit and you went back and changed things it could create controversy if the changes are not laid out simply in reply form. If the last change was made before the earthquake occurrence it likely wouldn’t be an issue, but what if one is happening while you edit? Then someone could legitimately question the hit.
The forum guidelines and other instructions are important to follow in order to avoid confusion and questions about your hits 🙂
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"March 24, 2017 at 3:40 pm #1043Take a look at the examples, and some of the higher-voted posts. It is tough to tell just based on this posting where the boundaries are (does New Caledonia count for Vanuatu? Does East Timor count for Indonesia?)
The fact that it is M6.5 helps the cause, and the timeline is well-defined. If we get one squarely within one of those regions you should try to map how much of the ring of fire was put on alert here. If one is close to being on the border, it will naturally create some questions (why I use the map).
I hope to have the map making functions available to you all very soon. Check out those examples and try to keep it focused and short in the forecast making (rather than discussion-like) and then below feel free to engage in any discussion about the topic.
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29 ptsBen Davidson "S0"March 20, 2017 at 11:19 pm #1006Two solid forecasts in terms of being clear – any word on a method used? By stating it now you sort-of hold your place in line. If someone gets a big hit before you and says they use what you use, they may get some credit that could have gone to you. While open source, this forum is based on credit for ideas that have helped the community and hopefully one day, the world.
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