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15 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 8:29 pm #8762
Dutch does not have data to support his hypothesis, but he often shows a wave tank in his videos. His idea along with new data showing most of the water on Earth is deep down in the crust in huge masses. The spout idea is his idea of why a quake occurs, but I think it could be used for volcanic activity (in some situations). And the fact that our oceans rise and fall about 10+ft and 10- feet twice a day is good indication that the center of the earth is being “pumped”. It would interesting to take a rubber ball into space, fill it 50% with water, spin it, then bump it in spots tp observe the wave paterns that form.
This is dutch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5j_6OExkzI&feature=youtu.be&t=5m29s
Standing wave form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpEevfOU4Z8
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Spout: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHTcSKkUU8U15 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 8:01 pm #8761A review of that area indicates it can have up to low M 5.0 quakes. Your spot next to an old cinder-cone will have a series of quakes, usually several 3.0′ strike and then end with something about one magnitude larger, and all tightly grouped. It looks like before that happens there will be several quakes striking near the city of Mexicali to the north. A 160km/100mls radius will capture around 95% of the quakes in the general area.
My observational method shows the most likely spot to have a quake would be near some other cinder-cones M 3.2 to 4.2 29°36’19.54″N 114°28’43.45″W 160km/100mls radius, soon and likely in the next 24 hours, but a standard seven day window would be appropriate, 2020-04-23 to 2020-04-30.
Our two spots are about 200km/120mls apart.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 23, 2020 at 7:20 pm #8760I should get a certificate for location accuracy LOL. But this observed quake was a tad low by about 4,500%.
If each M .1 is 100 times stronger then the .1 before it, and repeat that 45 times. You need a spread sheet. A M 2.0 is 1000 times stronger then a M 1.0. A M 2.1 is 100 times stronger then a 2.0.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 22, 2020 at 7:30 pm #8757Observed: M 5.3 – Kuril Islands 2020-04-22 06:51:01 (UTC) 46.543°N 153.429°E 10.0 km depth About 450km/280mls from the city Kurilsk.
Observational forecasting shows two waves in the area, one 4.0ish and the other 6.0ish. And this 5.3 is between them, makes it uncertain which wave it is.
But timing and spacing makes it look like it is from the M 6.6 – 209km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 08:25:37 (UTC) 27.140°N 140.106°E 453.8 km depth, which 36 hours later struck M 6.3 – 25km SE of Ofunato, Japan 2020-04-19 20:39:05 (UTC) 38.912°N 141.932°E 38.0 km depth. When looking at the moment tensor data it had a 66% of its energy headed EES and was back from the plate boundary by about 160km/100mls. The 5.3 was back from the plate boundary by about 80km/50mls.
You are definitely looking in the right area at the right time. If your method is seeing M 7.0+ then there could be a third wave or new starting point forming in this area.
All eyes open!
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratApril 22, 2020 at 6:50 pm #8756Thank you Lester. Petrolia and Branon see many small quakes. Glad to hear you are getting some activity in you watch area. It looks like the whole planet is in a quiet period. So I watch for larger (M 5.5+) deeper quakes to strike north of New Zealand or north of Australia to signify the start of a new active period around the planet.
And something I have been considering, pure science. Dutch has pointed out that his observations show quakes are caused by a wave of energy under the plates, and that as it rolls along if it’s peak/crest or trough hits a weak point in the plate, it will cause a quake. So we see about the same sized quakes go off in equally spaced distances. So assume this is true. Might that wave carry a unique vibration that could be spotted on the seismograph. Perhaps not the whole reading, but just at the beginning? Perhaps a wave leaves a FINGER print???
And for some pure entertaining nerd seismic joking. Most people heard of the “L” or sometimes called the “Q” wave, lesser known then the four main waves P, S, L, & R. This wave can be described as a wave that moves up at a 45 degree angle and back at about the same angle. The type motion is unfortunate only because of who “named it”, Dr. Love. LOL But the unfortunate naming only continued. Years later the Germans called it the “Q” wave, equally unfortunate because of it’s english sounding word, “quer”. LOL What is good about it, it is the easiest wave to remember. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 21, 2020 at 8:27 pm #8753Observed M 5.2 (5.4) – 48km ENE of Luganville, Vanuatu 2020-04-20 00:34:34 (UTC) 15.324°S 167.567°E 109.1 km depth ad M.2 for depth to magnitude.
It is a day off, BUT well with in your magnitude range and just 30km/19mls from your designated center point 167°20’E 15°10’S. I will say it should be considered a successful forecast.
Dutch once did a rough calculation of what would your chances of forecasting or predicting a quake, using the USGS “party line” that all quakes are random. He said it was about 1 in 100,000,000. So here is my calculation:
ROUGH THERE-A-BOUTS MATH FORMULA
Earths surface area 510,000,000 SQ kilometers
300km radius spot 281,000 SQ kilometersDIVIDED 1,814 (300km radius’s) will fit on the surface of 510,000,000
Choosing a correct point is .00055 chance
Choosing a week (1 out of 52) .02 chance per week
Choosing a 1 magnitude range (M 1-9) .125 chance per M1 range window
Total 1 in 137,500,000 chance of getting it correct
But we are following close to plate boundaries and volcanoes so the surface area we choose from is much smaller. Even if we are looking at just 5% of the surface then the chances of correctly forecasting is 1 in 6,785,000 chance of getting it correct.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 10:48 pm #8740Observed: M 6.3 – 25km SE of Ofunato, Japan 2020-04-19 20:39:05 (UTC) 38.912°N 141.932°E 38.0 km depth with Moment Tensor data showing 66% of the energy pushing strait off at a perpendicular eastward angle to the plate boundary along with a tad bit of upward energy; which is good news for the people living close to the epicenter. It looks like few felt it and news feeds are quiet! 🙂
Located 435km/272mls from your center point. It is notable that this struck so quickly after the first 6.6 (7.5) I will classify this as a fast moving seismic wave. It struck about 1328km/825mls form the first deep quake. This 6.3 is too shallow to add anything to the magnitude. The next movement of activity should be somewhere near the Island of Ozero Beloye +/- some distance, unless it sticks and goes off several times in it’s current location.
KP was ether 1 or zero when this struck, so nothing revealing about that data. I think blot echo was quiet in this area today.
So you get points for magnitude and time! And points for getting all of us forecaster excited and running to our computers LOL!
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 7:02 pm #8737Under my system, it was a hit!
M 4.9 – 45km S of Shizunai, Japan 2020-03-28 00:57:52 (UTC) 41.928°N 142.421°E 57.6 km depth
Add .1 for depth. Each 50km depth adds .1 to strength of magnitude.
And Marco Polo has a point. That big 6.6 (add depth = 7.5) that struck on April 18 will be roll right along the plate boundary and through your watch zone, between April 19 (today) and the April 26…unless, on an off chance, it jumps over to and runs along the Mendocino trench and rams into Northern California.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 6:42 pm #8736Tayrance, did you mean San Andres, Columbia (the Island)? Island coordinates ( 12°34’35.59″N 81°42’20.43″W ). Maybe you were day dreaming of a vacation somewhere warm while typing! The island look remarkably relaxing from space. LOL
Onto an observation I am seeing. It seems like we are getting a larger wave of seismic activity for a day, then back down to a moderate wave of seismic activity, then under M 3.5 “quiet” energy, and then repeat. Usually we have 5 to 7 days of larger energy rolling about.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 19, 2020 at 5:16 pm #8733Lester, thank you. North America’s seismic activity, 99% of the time, is slower to occur and smaller then it should be. As Dutch says, it is at the end of the seismic stream…which begins with the area north of New Zealand. Right now North America is buzzing with activity, most I have seen in my two years at this. But during the calmer periods I work at forecasting the smaller quakes, and hone in on areas and try to get it down to a 20 mile radius. Why? So that I can build trust through accuracy so that when I do forecast a larger quake, people will have confidence in the forecast. It’ not about me, it’s about a forecast system. My system might not work for that 1%, the big events window. I think we need several systems. Systems that can be patched together to create something greater then the sum of the parts.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratApril 18, 2020 at 9:08 pm #8730Observed: M 6.6 (7.5) – 209km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 08:25:37 (UTC) 27.140°N 140.106°E 453.8 km depth (note depth to magnitude chart adds .9 to the 6.6 equaling 7.5) AND hours later, M 5.7 (6.6) – 213km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 09:24:17 (UTC) 27.187°N 140.067°E 467.7 km depth (note depth to magnitude chart adds .9 to the 5.7 equaling 6.6).
Of interest: this new large deep M 6.6 (7.5) matches this older shallower M 7.5 – 221km SSE of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia 2020-03-25 02:49:20 (UTC) 48.969°N 157.691°E 55.4 km depth, followed with two aftershocks a M 5.1 and M 5.2 all three quakes were located with in 50km/30mls of each other.
Current:
New Forecast: M 6.0 to 8.0 (wide range I know) 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28 Compensated with in a narrow area from Hayfork California ( 40°32’57.97″N 123°11’9.72″W ) (spot chosen based upon observation of and “compression” cracks in the surface) to Mount Lassen ( 40°29’15.51″N 121°30’16.90″W ), both end points with a 96km/60mls radius and outer edges connecting. My gut says it will hit in the middle close to the east-end of Lake Shasta. Water enhancing an electric quake?
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 5.3 to 6.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
Modifying:
New Forecast: M 7.0 to 8.0 2020-04-14 to 2020-04-28 Compensated with in a narrow area from Hayfork California ( 40°32’57.97″N 123°11’9.72″W ) (spot chosen based upon observation of and “compression” cracks in the surface) to Mount Lassen ( 40°29’15.51″N 121°30’16.90″W ), both end points with a 96km/60mls radius and outer edges connecting. My gut says it will hit in the middle close to the east-end of Lake Shasta. Water enhancing an electric quake?
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 6.3 to 7.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 18, 2020 at 6:48 pm #8729Your 7.3 might be low. With the 6.6 that just struck south of Japan, using the depth to magnitude chart it adds .9 strength so it was a 7.5. We should see larger then 7.5 strike shallow further along the plate boundary (North of the 6.6 quake). AND OR we could see it ride the Mendocino Trench and ram into California right where I have a new warning from 4 days ago for 6.0-8.0 Northern California between the two Volcanoes. This 6.6 matches the 7.5 NE of Japan from March 25, 2020.
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratApril 16, 2020 at 9:32 pm #8724New Observation: Based up this quake (M 4.3 – 84km NNE of Santa Rosalia, Mexico 2020-04-07 09:15:34 (UTC)28.033°N 111.982°W10.0 km depth) with my Colorado forecast area, and a new “ring hypothesis” I am observing using the last few larger North American quakes. I am adjusting my Colorado forecast location and adding North Tip Juan de Fuca.
By circling from this point when we hit the above mentioned Mexico quake, it passes near my Colorado forecast, and touches the tip of the Juan de Fuca – of which Dutch issued a watch for just a few days ago ending 2020-04-18 for near 7.0 activity.
New watch, not a forecast Center point 11km/7mls east of Point Arena California on he San Andreas Fault M 3.7 to 4.7 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 38°24’42.01″N 105°16’1.85″W 80km/50mls north and south from this point on or with in 40km/25mls of the San Andreas Fault.
So I’m just tossing a minor educational watch for the center spot.Location moved from Pueblo Colorado to just west of Carson City Colorado, new forecast details 38°24’42.01″N 105°16’1.85″W 160km/100mls radius M 5.4 to 6.4 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-22. Note Magnitude, date window, and radius unchanged. This moves the forecast point west about 80km/50mls from the original location.
New Forecast North tip of Juan de Fuca / Queen Charlotte Fan M 5.3 to 6.3 2020-04-16 to 2020-04-23 51°47’14.84″N 131° 4’46.75″W 160km/100mls radius.
I fell less stressed with this new info, so I think I will sit back and watch. But if we see next to zero energy I’m gonna start freaking out like others. LOL
My North West New Mexico forecast remains steady.
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My Alturas California forscast remains steady.
My wide magnitude narrow range Hayfork California forecast remains steady.
My high watch, not a forecast, of Hoover Dam and Lake Mead remains steady. – This one is just a gut hunch not following any observational forecasting rules. If it strikes, I could not repeat this as a forecast, unless I had a dart board. LOL15 pts15 pts15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 16, 2020 at 6:42 pm #8717Congratulations! there were several quakes of note in your watch area. If you take your 5.3 with the depth 43km (for easy math) add M .1 for each 50km and you have a 5.4 or better math would make it a 5.38!
Link to chart. There are actually two charts. The main one which is in the link and a second one just for use near New Zealand.
Main chart
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e7/ac/dd/e7acdd52af08d47647d8348bbc6e4ed7.jpg
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 16, 2020 at 8:03 am #8716Lester, wow, I actually “get it”. The Tesla Electric globe description was the key for me. I also like your thinking of going back in time, looking at an event and then looking over to determine correlation. We just need a few young college students to pluck through the data…LOL I have been considering going back and looking at old mega quakes to see what observational forecasting tells about precursors.
I keep thinking we need to combine forecasting methods. So your method would indicate to look at a location. The my method would look to see if enough seismic pressure is in the surrounding area.
Right now there is a boat load of seismic pressure pushing north to south in California and west to east through California. We are only seeing the west to east energy at this time and it has jumped in equally spaced distances from the coast with San Francisco as my center point. Google Earth it and draw measurement circles and it is startling.
320km/200mls (5.2 Mono Lake/Bodie California AND the southern eastern most point of the Juan de Fuca)
640km/400mls (the weird 3.7 in Nevada and weird because there are no know quakes in 100 miles of it (SEE DETAILS BELOW) and it too crosses the east most inner point of the Juan de Fuca zig-zag plate boundary)
960km/600mls (5.7 Salt Lake City AND 6.5 Idaho AND the western most point of the Juan de Fuca zig-zag plate boundary)
1280km/800mls (nothing yet, but why I have my forecast for central south east Colorado, and it crosses very close to the northern most point of the Juan de Fuca and very close the the 5.0 that struck west Texas)
This would be a movie moment were the scientist rips paper from the printer, starts drawing circles on the USA map, and says, “my God!” Followed by dramatic music and people jumping into jeeps and speeding away to Colorado! LOL Far from truth of the life of a forecaster.
BUT, it all comes back to San Francisco.
Weird quake
M 3.7 – 45km SSE of Currant, Nevada 2020-04-11 02:39:32 (UTC) 38.328°N 115.245°W 6.3 km depthHere are the other quakes, they soon will be dropping of the main feeds.
M 5.2 – 30km SE of Bodie, CA 2020-04-11 14:36:37 (UTC) 38.053°N 118.733°W 8.5 km depth
M 5.7 – 4km NNW of Magna, Utah 2020-03-18 13:09:31 (UTC) 40.751°N 112.078°W 11.9 km depth
M 6.5 – 70km W of Challis, Idaho 2020-03-31 23:52:30 (UTC) 44.491°N 115.118°W 10.0 km depth
M 5.0 – 41km W of Mentone, Texas 2020-03-26 15:16:27 (UTC) 31.708°N 104.039°W 6.6 km depthMy forecast point for Colorado
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5.4 to 6.4 April 4 to April 22 38°11’38.84″N 104°37’29.89″W Pueblo Colorado. 160km/100mile radius. Southern Colorado System and Great Planes boarder area. Low spot between these two land masses.15 ptsCanyonratApril 15, 2020 at 6:53 pm #8711Lester, thank you. If I understand your methodology, I should be watching for an eruption (would a 5.0+ quake at the volcano suffice?) at Mnt Ebeko between now and April 28, then look strongly at the San Francisco area for 3.0+.
On a side note. I’m getting really nervous with the Juan de Fuca being so quiet as the Western USA is covered with a shocking amount of quake activity. Even Dutch said on his last broadcast a few days ago, “I am really starting to freak out with no energy being released at the Juan de Fuca and the state of Colorado.”
For quick referencing:
Mnt. Ebiko 50°39’58.25″N 156° 1’4.86″E
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/index.htmlJuan de Fuca Plate 45°46’53.18″N 130° 4’7.15″W
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 15, 2020 at 6:02 pm #8709Observed: M 4.2 – 94km SSE of Chignik Lake, Alaska 2020-04-15 01:17:34 (UTC) 55.432°N 158.409°W 35.9 km depth .
Located NE 217km/135mls from forcast center.Conclusion: Forecast miss. Though this is is one of the seismic quiet areas on the Aleutian Island chain it did have increased activity, just either too small or outside of the 160km/100mls forecast area; though no seismic activity of notable consequence.
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