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15 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 5, 2020 at 7:03 pm #8608
Observed: New Southern California quake on 4/4 reinforces same forecast area of Avila to Bishop California area. It also puts NW Corner of Arizona near Lake Mead back on a watch for 4.5 to 5.5 but not yet a forecast warning.
M 4.9 – 17km ESE of Anza, CA 2020-04-04 01:53:18 (UTC) 33.490°N 116.506°W 10.5km depthNotes:
Fore fast reference,
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Avila Beach Califonia 35°10’58.61″N 120°44’27.99″W
Bishop California 37°21’41.13″N 118°23’58.79″W15 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 4, 2020 at 7:11 pm #8600Lester, thank you.
EARTHQUAKE EVENT: M 4.7 – 43km WNW of Qastal Ma`af, Syria 2020-04-03 18:15:42 (UTC) 35.921°N 35.490°E 12.7 km depth.
STATUS: Successful forcast. All three parts, strength, time, location
Notes: The quake did strike off shore as forecasted. Location was 101km/63mls NNE of forecast center. Moment tensor indicates it was a “normal” quake…meaning not a combo fault, strike-slip, thrust, or an explosion.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2020 at 11:25 pm #8260Another addition / comment…
Observed: The tensor graph for the Idaho quake showed greatest compression pushing in a SE direction. So I put Central SE Colorado on alert rather then just sticking with a clean strait line from the 6.5 Idaho to the 5.0 Texas quake with equal distant spacing. That would have placed the energy only in the four corners area (for international forecasters, four corners is where the boarders of four USA states, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah all meet at a 90 degree angles, it is just a figment of lines on a map, and a great photo opportunity to lay there with one limb in each state).
I still think some energy will be near there, but my gut and EQ3D shows Colorado in play.
For your view pleasure of four corners: 36°59’55.81″N 109° 2’42.85″W
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2020 at 4:59 pm #8254LOL Lester, and good morning from sunny California.
Click page 2 at the bottom of the home screen, then go to the web address bar and change the 2 to 124 and that is where normalcy was left off at. LOL
Does anyone here have Ben’s or Ben’s web persons phone number to send one of them a quick text. And I get it that with a few hundred thousand Suspicious0bservers that you need to keep your number confidential otherwise you would be getting 100+ calls and texts per day.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2020 at 4:14 pm #8253Observed: M 4.3 2020-04-02 14:56:08.8 UTC5 55.77 N 157.09 W
Located 306km/190mls EEN of forecast location, just back from the edge of the shelf drop off by 64km/40mls.
It is only 115km/72mls from my revised location posted March 30, 2020 at 5:45 pm. But is located out of my forecast zone and struck 1 day earlier then expected.Dutch’s methodology would indicate a new quake should fill the center point or equilibrium point at M 4.8-5.2 “NEAR” 54°46’40.96″N 161°40’24.69″W , in 1 to 3 days which would be 64km/40mls from my original forecast location and well with in my forecast window.
Status: Original forecast from March 26, 2020 at 6:08 holds steady at strength, location, and time.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 2, 2020 at 3:23 pm #8251I googled “501479313” and this hacker has been doing this since 2018. Not just an April Fools joke or trickery. But since they are offering fake degrees perhaps I should order a PhD in Chinese Military Hacking Techniques and have it shipped to PLA Unit 61398, Gaoqiao Shanghai.
I just found the actual location of the building where the Chinese Military Hacking is coming from. I am in no way saying or inferring the EQ Forecast site quakewatch.net has been hacked by them. It was just fun to go find that building.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 1, 2020 at 9:27 am #6979It is 2am in Cali and I mad a mistake.
Posted: The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281miles west, north and east, but only 160km/100miles east.
Correction: The radius is wonky on this one 350km/281miles west, north and south, but only 160km/100miles east.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 1, 2020 at 9:05 am #6978Grandpa just choked on his damn dentures. This continues to be part of my forecast for larger unexpected quakes east of the west coast North America.
M 6.5 – 72km W of Challis, Idaho 2020-03-31 23:52:31 (UTC) 44.448°N 115.136°W 10.0 km depth.
Lake Mead/Hoover Dam and Oklahoma City area are now out of play.
I am now moving this to a new thread/post.
See: Alert North America – S. California, NW New Mexico, Central SW Colorado
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMarch 30, 2020 at 5:45 pm #6969Observed: M 4.8 2020-03-30 08:21:14 (UTC)53.556°N 166.101°W.
Located 339km/210mils WWS of forecast location, just on the edge of the shelf drop off. I still think another of similar size will strike with in my forecast area and time, but closer to this location 54°49’41.80″N 157°54’39.81″W , which is 80-100 miles EEN of my forecast area, and in 3 or 4 days.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 29, 2020 at 5:16 pm #6962East coast North America, Montreal Canada just got struck with a 3.1 on 2020-03-29 07:21:04 (UTC) 45.811°N 73.573°W. This is some of the less then 4.0 expected energy rolling across from west coast to east coast.
Grandpa’s snoring was momentarily interrupted.
Status: Still watching.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMarch 28, 2020 at 6:00 am #6954My Facebook post from a few minutes ago:
Seismic update: All should be calm for the next 5 days in USA. Possible 4.0 or less activity east coast, just a guess. When the quiet is broken by another larger quake, then I can forecast the even larger pending energy.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 28, 2020 at 5:53 am #6953Now the slow long wait.
We should have some activity in 5 or more days, then we can focus/clarify a forecast. Darn sleepy North American quakes, like watching grandpa snoring in his sleep.
I am clarifying Hoover Dam to Lake Mead, less scary, my mistake.
Also, the 3.4 mag that struck at Oklahoma City minutes before this post, was not the energy I am watching for. I will guess it is energy moving from the 4.0 activity from the west. I was typing when it struck…LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 26, 2020 at 7:48 pm #6942I don not expect Hoover Dam to be directly hit. Historically it is a stable location. One of the strongest structures built in the last 10000 years. I probably should have identified it as Lake Mead. But the general area is on my watch list. In college I surfed. My 4:20 was more like 5:00am. LOL It ruined my participation at parties. It was too late in the evening for me to want to smoke. Like trying to have a glass of Cabernet Wine first thing in the morning, I just can’t do that either. LOL
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMarch 26, 2020 at 1:12 am #6927lester, if you mean you will actually be in Parkfield CA, I can drive down. I’ve heard it call its self “Earthquake Capital of the Universe…world”. LOL Looks like today they had a pile up of small quakes about 20 miles/33 KM NNE. That area tends to get small quakes all the time.
Us yanks celebrate Mother’s Day on May 10, 2020, so there could be a second chance…
I do have a question about your forecast: “Ref; 15/2 – 6.3 Bali – 5.4 Croatia” how do I interpret this? I under stand the “6.3” part, but the “15/2” and I looked at some of your past forecasts and the “ref” had other notations I could not figure out.
As for power grids, my step dad is/was (semi-retired) a project manager for construction companies that build power plants. He’s done 2 nukes, 2 solar (you’ve seen them on TV), a few coal, and many many natural gas. In the early 2000 he worked for CalPine Corp. and he and his boss were overseeing $3-7 billion in construction of power plants. He can have some useful information at times. I’ve carefully asked questions about, if the power plants could withstand a solar flair, without mentioning micro-nova. He basically said there is no energy that can flow back into a power plant and damage it. They have redundancies and auto shut down should a DC current flow up an AC line or an ac surge flow up the line. I can in the months to come ask him about some of the monitors they use and what they detect.
I’m going to develop a forecast lay out that puts the forecast first and try to make it look like other’s on this board and then have my narrative below. The narrative helps me think and put down on paper for memory and also it makes for easy reading for friends and family. I hope to become accurate enough to forecast and alert others for 4.5-6.5 energy on a public plateform, like newspaper and TV evening news. At that range people can prepare for: put good china in box on floor, by extra beer and ice, load ice-chest with BBQ stuff for dinner… LOL When 7+ hits, you really need air bags installed in your walls. It can be as powerful as a bad car accident. Like in business and insurance, you try to spread the risk. If I see the potential for big energy, I’d like to consult and even use others forecasts (with credit given) to back up my communication of “OMG HOLD ON!” LOL We do that in construction. If a house we are working on has a bad roof that needs new shingles and is complex in design, we hire a roofing contractor to do it. That way if there is a leak, we are not standing there looking stupid, we grab the roofer and place them between us and the angry client. LOL To fix it. And as you see, I try to make communication fun.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 25, 2020 at 9:31 pm #69241000KM radius is ok, but not useful for preparation. But I do like your forecasts.
Russia/Japan- 1000km radius of 48.821°N 153.635E: 6.4 – 7.4
We have a 7.5 and a 5.1. Both you and lester are in-between the energy. And you still have more time to go for something in a range between those two.I would call this a “forecast hit”! Dutch says a 200 mile radius, and it looks like you are very close to 200 miles away.
I will watch Chili and learn, not my forecasting region.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMarch 25, 2020 at 8:37 pm #6923Well, with the 7.5 going off near Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia, that does mean more pressure heading our way (I live in Santa Rosa CA) and could push the stregth of quakes up. One of the things I have noticed about California Quakes, is they move super slow. LOL SO I just started making my forecasts to begin in a few days from the forecast statement. I’m even tempted to start them a week later then my forecast statement.
But right now sleepy California is “LIT UP”! Lot’s of quake activity to help narrow in on locations and sizes of forecasted quakes. I’m guessing in two weeks we will look back at the activity and be surprised at what ocurred.
Mark
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