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15 ptsCanyonratAugust 31, 2020 at 6:18 pm #9455
This is a forecast post I just made and not related to the above info. It just will not post for some reason. Mark
August 31, 2020 at 5:55 pm #9453
Juan de Fuca 7.5 2020-08-30 to 2020-09-06
Observed: Pending Solar Polar flip. Planetary decrease in 5.0+ quakes last 3 days. Last several weeks in increase in “end” quakes along the North and South Atlantic ridge area. Most activity is currently in North and South America. The 6.5 from Aug. 30 is an indicator that a large amount of energy has worked it’s way through S. America and it is likely releaved of pressure. Juan de Fuca has been noticeably quiet the last few months with only under 5.5 energy and it is my thinking that pressure has built up. And the P.N.S.N. Tremor Map (see link below) has been getting very quiet over the last few weeks, which can mean pressure building or no pressure… However, when it becomes very active, we often see larger quakes hundreds of miles away. Also as I type this a 6.2 went off mid Indian Ocean, which indicates pressure has been released on the western islands (Sumatra Java area).
M 6.5 – central Mid-Atlantic Ridge 2020-08-30 21:20:28 (UTC) 0.870°N 29.705°W 10.0 km depth
M 6.2 – Chagos Archipelago region 2020-08-31 17:24:04 (UTC) 4.069°S 70.251°E 10.0 km depth
Forecast: 6.9 to 7.9 Juan de Fuca entire Plate and out around the plate 80km/50mls all directions 2020-08-31 to 2020-09-06 less then 70km depth.
Note: Larger quakes are not my forecasting specialty, and they are more difficult to forecast
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 27, 2020 at 10:53 pm #9446Tow quakes, in uncommon areas where few quakes occur. Just out side of my radius and still weaker then I expected, but there is still time in my window.
Both are only on the Canadian feed, not USGS.
Event ID
20200826.2155001
Date/Time (UTC)
2020-08-26 21:55:02
Magnitude
2.0
Coordinates
51.194N, 88.603W
Depth (km)
5.0
Description
116 km E from Pickle Lake, ONEvent ID
Score: 0
20200818.1748001
Date/Time (UTC)
2020-08-18 17:48:16
Magnitude
1.8
Coordinates
49.222N, 91.767W
Depth (km)
2.0
Description
54 km N from Atikokan, ON15 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 24, 2020 at 7:45 am #9430We have energy! It is important. I am just back from two weeks of camping with the entire family. Terrible for me as I only drove every day into town to “attempt” to complete a business deal. Sucks rotten eggs.
This quake is amazing!
Observed: M 3.2 – 2 km SSE of Detroit Beach, Michigan 2020-08-21 22:55:09 (UTC)41.913°N 83.318°W 9.2 km depth (93 prior quakes in this greater area at 3.0M+ in the last 100 years), this quake is what I am looking for and I expect more energy to occur. This quake is 159km/98mls from the line between what captured my attention.
Observed end point quakes:
(M 5.1 – 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina 2020-08-09 12:07:37 (UTC) 36.476°N 81.094°W 7.6 km depth)
And the NOT REPORTED BY THE USGS but by the Canadians (Event ID 20200725.0305013 (UTC) 2020-07-25 03:05:25 M 5.3 ( 62.218N 124.476W ) Depth 5.0km Description 125 km S of Wrigley, NT) AND.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 4:49 pm #9400PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS FORECAST IS NOT POSTING AS A NEW TOPIC.
I WILL TRY TO REPOST IT IN A FEW HOURS.
This will be what is called an “in-fill quake” or a quake filling the “silent zone”.
2020-08-09 to 2020–09-06 4.4 to 5.4 Lake Winnipeg, Canada 52°52’12.94″N 98° 4’4.16″W 600km/375mls radius no deeper then 70km.
Observed quakes:
(A) CAN-EQ Event ID 20200725.0305013 2020-07-25 03:05:25 (UTC) Magnitude 5.3 125 km S of Wrigley, NT 62.218N 124.476W Depth 5km
(B) USGS M 5.1 – 4 km SE of Sparta, North Carolina 2020-08-09 12:07:37 (UTC)36.476°N 81.094°W7.6 km depth
(C) USGS M 4.2 – 13 km WSW of Stanley, Idaho 2020-08-08 02:11:30 (UTC) 44.174°N 115.091°W 10.0 km depth
(D) USGS M 4.0 – Northwest Territories, Canada 2020-08-13 02:34:17 (UTC) 62.237°N 124.434°W 10.0 km depth
Notes: My thinking is that quake (B) is related to quake (A) and that the energy ran strait through Canada and to North Carolina. Quake (C) helps to define the location of my forecast. Quake (D) is part of the “infill” energy. My wide time frame is based on the 16 days between quakes (A) & (B). My wide radius is because there has only been about ten quakes in the last one hundred years 3.9 to 4.3 in this forecast area, so it is difficult to determine where this quake could strike. If a 4.4 or greater occurs, it will be the largest quake in the area ever, and I will call that a successful forecast. Also note that for some reason the USGS only reports a few of the Canadian quakes, and the Canadian Department of Natural Resource’s shows a lot of seismic activity (see link below).
Resource: https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/recent/maps-cartes/index-en.php?tpl_region=canada#events
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 7:21 am #9396FYI:”
I am generally telling others that forecasting in North America and including the rest of the southern Americas that, we need to add 7 to 14 days to our forecast windows. My above forecast is a precursor or “tell tail” forecast, not something I will post as a success. But based on what happens, then I will forecast the next event, but with a 3 or 4 week window. But this type of wide windowed forecasting will soon stop, it is just temporary based on what I am observing across the Pacific at this time.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 7:11 am #9395Lester,
You should see 4.5 to 6.2 energy rolling through from now until 2020-08-19. According to observational forecasting. I believe there is a huge amount of push heading west and observed by the 5.0 energy going off on the mid-Atlantic ridge. There is just so much data it is making my head spin. Remember, add 1 to 2 weeks to any forecast at this time to the Americas.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 7:02 am #9394Wow, energy is transferring quickly.
Observed:
emsc-csem M4.0 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA 2020-08-13 02:34:17.5 (UTC) 62.24 N 124.43 W Depth 10 km
USGS M2.8 – 100 km SW of Yellowknife, Canada 2020-08-13 02:33:38 (UTC) 61.861°N 115.817°W Depth 14.9 km
Watch south east of this energy.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 6:54 am #9393JEC, I forgot to respond to your post. I have been thinking (head spinning actually) about all the data. We could use a programmer in our group, a (none-forecaster) to put all the data into coordinates of weak areas or high energy areas. Mark in California
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 13, 2020 at 6:49 am #9392Becca, your maps has a very slight colored impression in Canada over Lake Winnipeg. I have a moderate watch at that area fro 5ish activity which would be super rare for that area. Love you forecasts. Can you explain that slight coloration? Mark in California.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 9, 2020 at 9:26 pm #9382Hello Lester,
I have been quiet in the back ground doing some studying. Studying Canadian geology and reviewing large historical quakes in California.
It appears that the entire North American plate has been pushed with 5.0+ energy. We can see this because of all the 4.5+ quakes along the Atlantic Ridge.
My “thinking” “best guess” is that seismic energy from Canada is currently having a much greater effect on N. America then normal. To me it looks like the 5.1 in North Carolina to day was from energy that followed the edge of the Canadian Shield section of the N. American Plate. Also it looks like to me, the quakes from Alaska are not following a standard route and coming down the coast, but rather heading inland and the turning SE and bypassing the west coast.
Because of this, I will be extending all my N. American forecast windows from 2 weeks to 4 weeks, for the near term. I will also look back at my recent expired forecasts and rejuvenate them with a larger time window.
Back to my studies; I was reviewing past Californian quakes and noticed on a few that the Sonoma County Geysers, just north of San Francisco, have gone silent for weeks at a time before a really large quake struck. I still need to double check other sources to see if perhaps all the 2.4 and smaller quakes just get dropped from the data, so that could be a possibility.
Right now the Geysers are active and nothing larger the 2.5 has struck, so I think the Bay Area is quiet for the next week. Dutch has been watching for some really larger 6isg energy to strike on the Juan de Fuca, but nothing yet. Thus I too see that this should occur but is not. So I started looking north and that has lead me into the woods of Canada. LOL
Best of luck Forecasting! … and to us all.
Mark
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 9, 2020 at 8:33 pm #9378Wow, I posted this, could see it, but it was not showing on Forecasts.
New information regarding 5.1 today.
I spoke with our property Manager in Winston-Salem North Carolina, located about 80km/50mls from the small out break of quakes. She was awoken by the big one. So in reference to my 6 week old forecast I asked her about mines in the area of the 5.1. She said, “wow, there are thousands, funny you should ask.” I then did some research and found a few sources all stating about 4000 mines west of HWY 77 in North Carolina.
I will be back on in a few hours to make a few official forecasts based on this event.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 6, 2020 at 10:31 pm #9361I figured it out. I would copy, then past, but it was pasting the number I copied just before. So when I would copy and past, wrong number, then past again, and the correct number would past. So it was acting like it had two clip boards. No virus. I just gave it the boot…or “re-boot” and she is behaving.
So the 3.8 in Nevada is way outside my forecast area.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 6, 2020 at 9:28 pm #9359Success…maybe? maybe not…but very interesting activity so far…
I am forecasting 4.0 – 5.0 activity.
Observed: M 3.0 – 22km W of Bonny Doon, CA 2020-08-06 16:00:27 (UTC) 37.075°N 122.389°W 8.8 km depth
A VERY RARE off shore quake from San Fransisco. But too small. 🙁 I still have more time in my forecast, but this is likely it. Located 74km/47mls south of San Francisco. In the last 100 years, just under 300 quakes have struck off shore and only 62 quakes M2.5+ have struck off shore.
But I noticed I put the wrong center point for the off shore event. It should be 37° 6’39.44″N 122°53’20.79″W. So if a larger quake strikes, this is the correct center point. The one I posted is way off shore and does not cover any of the area I described, “edge of central valley or even the San Andreas Fault.” OOPS. This 3.0 struck just west from my “corrected” center point by 44km/28mls and in about 240 ft deep of ocean.
Observed: M 3.8 – 29 km SSE of Mina, Nevada 2020-08-06 13:01:57 (UTC) 38.135°N 118.039°W 9.5 km depth.
This too is a tad low in Magnitude, but struck a stones throw away from my center point at just 45meters/145feet from my center point. Forgive me if I am off a few inches. LOL And I still have more time in my forecast for larger magnitude.
What is also interesting about these two quakes is that this is the first or second time I made two forecast locations based upon the same data. The two quakes both occurred with in 3 hours of each other.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 1, 2020 at 7:30 pm #9339Great information. Thank you for sharing. Many years ago I heard a story that as Lake Mead was filling up after the completion of the Hoover Dam, there were many quakes for the first year or so. I have more recently hear that some people theorize that during wet periods that water seeps down into faults and the act like a lubricant which allow the faults to move and thus cause an earthquake. Logically I must agree with the lubricant idea, buut would add that it could take months for the water to seep down to a depth or 10km+, where most quakes occur. Mark
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratAugust 1, 2020 at 1:13 am #9332Some specifics about my two forecasts.
Center-point for the San Francisco. Location 37°39’35.23″N 125°22’48.49″W with a 160km/100mls radius that stops at the west edge of the Central Valley.
Center point for Ridgecrest California. Location 36° 5’15.22″N 117°59’25.40″W with a 160km/100mls radius.
This is what my system shows.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratAugust 1, 2020 at 12:51 am #9331Now what would happen if we only held the glass in position over the paper for 5 seconds ?, you would infuse the paper with an intense burst of heat, which would dissipate the moment you removed the glass. But imagine if the paper was able to retain this heat, and you gave it a 5 second burst every two days. With each attempt you would be weakening its molecular structure, and after 12 days it would succumb to the effects of the heat.
This is a very good analogy. Dutch mentions this “type” of thing as priming or charging. If you keep having large quakes near by, and nothing or almost nothing occurs “down stream” from these events, then the energy or pressure is building. Eventually a larger quake will occur and then “down stream” a larger quake could occur, even larger then the first one.
With my current hypothesis; if these 4.0s in California are part of this wave energy from Japan, the 4.0’s would be an early and weaker portion of this set of waves with a stronger sets of wave behind it. So if a larger quake occurs inland then with only some certainty these 4.0s are related. Now my method can not show me where this possible larger quake/s could occur, but your method might be able to point out some locations. I do see collaborations between all of us in the future, especially for the bigger quakes. You and I have done this already. We ask some one to look at an area and toss in their assessment. A few months back about 4 of us had forecasts for the area of Ridgecrest California to Santa Barbara California that over lapped in location and size and time. But NOTHING happened…which for me was really disappointing. If something had happened then that would have been very significant for all of our methods.
But being a forecaster is a lonely endeavor and success only happens after a long journey through fields of failures. Then repeat. LOL
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratJuly 31, 2020 at 2:34 am #9324Wow Lester, you analysis is very comprehensive. I am in the processes of creating a “system” to track and review past events, to use as a base line for forecasting. What this means, is when the correct energy occurs then new energy should occur in the next area. The location will be determined by the recent quakes in the general area to narrow in on a “center point”. I am also learning to add in solar activity to this. So low solar activity should reduce the magnitude or even the mere chance of a quake going off; The increase of solar activity is the reverse of this.
It does make my head spin.
With these four 4.0s (includes two 3.8’s) going off this morning (2020-07-30) in California… It looks like to me, the first wave from the east (Japan) and not a wave from the north (Alaska) because a wave from the north would have struck the Juan de Fuca first and then progressed east and south. A wave from Japan should strike evenly on the coast of California, then should strike larger inland. For a while I have been watching for signs of said Japanese energy popping off the smallest of quakes mid Pacific, but either this hypothetical energy does not do that, or the reporting agencies don’t want to bother reporting such tiny events 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea. LOL I do expect by 2020-08-02, the energy I am watching for should strike. But with observed four quakes, we can look east of these, and by combining their circles, central Nevada is most likely.
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