Forum Replies Created
-
15 ptsCanyonratMay 18, 2020 at 4:04 pm #8873
One day left in your watch! If you are using the EQ3D program, it is interesting to see 5 quake locations in play on the west coast. We have at the south the 4.5 at Ocotillo Wells California, then the big 6.5 in Nevada, the 4.4 in Yellow Stone Park Idaho, then the 4.7 off shore Vancouver Island Canada, and now the new 5.5 and 4.5 off shore California at the south end of the Juan de Fuca. The 4 smaller quake locationss form a diamond shape with the 6.5 centered in the lower triangle shape, and this leaves an open spot in the middle of the top triangle shape. Guess what sits in that middle empty/quiet spot, Mount Saint Helens, Mount Adams, and Mount Hood.
This could be a cinematic moment when the Scientists are looking at the map and realize what they see and say, “oh my God!”. Then they all run to their jeeps and race toward to one of those three volcanoes. LOL You have to have some fun at this forecasting thing.
I am not in anyway indicating an eruption. What I am indicating is we should watch for seismic activity near their. Later I will look more closely and perhaps make a forecast, and as always the area is open for all forecasters to make forecasts.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 17, 2020 at 6:37 am #8869The USGS might and could appear to be perhaps setting and agenda of some sort, difficult to see and all of that. Generally I could see a quake being adjusted in location or strength or depth semi-often. But to take 20+ seismographs and say it is not worth reporting for a 4.5+, is a little strange. Also I am on the trail of some alternative sources of seismic data…more to come.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 17, 2020 at 6:26 am #8866Counselor, thank you for the “nod”! I am really looking inland but set a wide radius only because I don’t/can’t see the energy clearly. I am holding with my original forecast for Northern California between the two big volcanoes. But I am considering a change to the forecast, but too busy running down disappearing quakes at this time. LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 15, 2020 at 11:54 pm #8850Observed: M 3.2 – 3km ENE of East Quincy, CA 2020-05-15 21:47:23 (UTC) 39.942°N 120.866°W -1.5 km depth. Rare sky quake, LOL. For those observers peaking about, a negative depth quake indicates it likely struck up and inside a mountain, and if you think Volcano it become more clear.
This quake was very close to te other observed quake posted just above.
I am considering moving my center point to Mount Plumas and increasing my strength range to 5.1 to 6.1, but I am going to hold steady and “sleep on it”.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 15, 2020 at 11:35 pm #8848Counselor, I don’t know which map you are referring too? I am looking at this page https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/olr.shtml but the resolution is small. I do however see some interesting orange lines running along the east side of california on 2020-05-10 on the animated maps. Am I on the correct page?
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 15, 2020 at 7:37 pm #8843Thank you all for the complements. My post was https://quakewatch.net/forums/topic/lester-april-20-2020-ephemeral-period-forecast/#post-8761. The energy I look for going south into Mexico shows some activity near Mexicali first, sometimes it drops off a quake across the boarder in Mexico, then heads south and usually jumps a beat/rhythm and skips over the Gulf of California aka Sea of Cortez and strikes next off shore south of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico by about 160km/100mls.
M 4.5 – 17km SE of Ocotillo Wells, CA 2020-05-10 22:07:40 (UTC) 33.018°N 116.020°W 10.2 km depth
More to come, we are working on the house and about to shut power off.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 15, 2020 at 2:38 pm #8838The Observed Nevada event three largest:
M 6.5 – 56km W of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:03:27 (UTC) 38.159°N 117.875°W 2.8 km depth
M 5.1 – 59km WNW of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:26:02 (UTC) 38.185°N 117.894°W 5.8 km depth
M 4.9 – 62km W of Tonopah, Nevada 2020-05-15 11:18:12 (UTC) 38.160°N 117.960°W 3.8 km depthOn May 4 I posted this, “I am watching for any M 4.0+ mid north Pacific between the Latitudes N35 and N45 (there abouts) and that would be a leading indicator that stronger energy will strike west coast USA and inland up to 320km/200mls.”
This Nevada quake fits the Latitude range but is 400km/250mls from the coast.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 15, 2020 at 2:26 pm #8835Something big had to have struck offshore in the North Pacific in my watch area and rammed into North America. I just need to hunt the lesser known seismic agencies to find areport of it. Much like the rare Canadian quake I have been reporting on.
ODD CANADIAN QUAKE
4.9 NORTHWEST TERRITORIES, CANADA 2020-05-06 15:55:04 UTC 60.77 N 105.28 W depth 13km
Canadian quake https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=854598
Here are the other quakes, they soon will be dropping of the main feeds.
M 5.2 – 30km SE of Bodie, CA 2020-04-11 14:36:37 (UTC) 38.053°N 118.733°W 8.5 km depth
Score: 0
M 5.7 – 4km NNW of Magna, Utah 2020-03-18 13:09:31 (UTC) 40.751°N 112.078°W 11.9 km depth
M 6.5 – 70km W of Challis, Idaho 2020-03-31 23:52:30 (UTC) 44.491°N 115.118°W 10.0 km depth
M 5.0 – 41km W of Mentone, Texas 2020-03-26 15:16:27 (UTC) 31.708°N 104.039°W 6.6 km depth15 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 6:53 pm #8830We had a small shallow quake at the base of an old unmarked shield volcano named Mount Plumas. Plumas is 7200ft at it’s peak and the quake occurred near it’s base at 4100ft and just 10km/6mls from the peak. This quake struck 201km/125mls south of my center point. The area has only had a handful of quakes in many decades. Watch continues.
Observed: M 1.1 – 9km ESE of East Quincy, California 2020-05-14 12:49:16 (UTC) 39.910°N 120.795°W 8.7 km depth.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 2:38 am #8825Lester: April 16 2020 – San Francisco / Mt Stromboli Volcano
Lester, from my heart, thank you for writing that. My apologies for for just now noticing it and reading, it after my three above posts in this thread. I too take this seriously, and I too fear not being wrong, but being right and not have helped even one person. I even forecast “calm” as in two weeks ago for N America. The forecasting of “calm”/”all clear” is probably as important and forecasting the “big one”. I follow my method and what it indicates I post it. And like you, I do this to learn and build trust in the method. I am really new at this and learning so much, but have had several small magnitude successes with in 50 miles, one was under 10 miles, so I felt confident enough to join in on quakewatch.
Onto a tangent…
Set your coffee/tea cup down and then read on. Our property realtor with whom we have done many deals, told me a story. She said that years ago when she was new at selling property, she and a dozen other realtors got together, formed a realtor group, and awarded each other awards, that they then used those awards in their advertising.
Now, after you are finished laughing…
Perhaps we could do something like what they did, for seismic forecasting. But be REAL about it. Form a group. Then as each of us develops a record of forecast “hits”, then this group could issue an award or certificate, etc. Then that “certificate/award” could be used to give the recipient some “credibility” so when they see the “big one”, people might listen to them. People being the media who would get the information out to the masses. AND all that said, we forecasters are most certainly on the fringe of this Seismic/geologic science, and I bet each of us are a bit “quirky”/”nerdy”, but we are also on the front edge of breaking into new scientific territory. And Ben might already be thinking this idea I propose by setting up quakewatch. And I am most certainly nowhere near the point of calling the media regarding one of my forecasts.
On a side note, I will soon post my review/critique of my many misses last month, and it reveals a few “turd plops” on the floor (LOL), and some eyebrow raising observations that shows my technique just needs refinement, but is useful and functional. I always keep in mind the 1 in 6,000,000 to 1 in 120,000,000 ratio we are up against.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 1:56 am #8823If we see a quake strike in this area 33°44’41.64″N 135° 9’34.84″W then I might get on the telephone and start ringing/calling (LOL) the police and fire departments. A quake in this general area would support your forecast very strongly from an observation forecasting perspective. It would also support my Northern California forecast.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 14, 2020 at 1:48 am #8822I am seeing something new. Many quakes at 3 to 0 KM depth in North America, Japan, and that lone super rare quake M 3.8 – 146km E of Egvekinot, Russia 2020-05-13 07:35:23 (UTC) 66.188°N 175.927°W 2.8km depth. That area has only experienced a dozen quakes in 115 years. I will guess that the Bay Area quake you are watching for will come in very shallow, maybe 2KM?
So the rare Canadian quake I pointed out (took me an hour to find official reporting) and then that rare Russian quake mentioned above, leads me to think we will see more “surprise” quakes in North America in the M 3.4 to 5.4, and shallow, no deeper then 9KM.
Then we see this Bay Area quake M 2.6 – 8km WSW of Mountain House, CA 2020-05-14 00:00:15 (UTC) 37.755°N 121.632°W -0.1km depth minutes ago…something is a foot. (This 2.6 was not near Mount Diablo Ancient Volcano located about 20 miles NW.)
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratMay 13, 2020 at 2:19 am #8819More deep seismic energy, and this type of energy rolls out and away.
Observed:
First came the M 6.5 2895 km north of Whangarei May 12 2020 22:40:52 (UTC) Lat -10.70 Long 165.93 33 km depth https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2020p359320
Then came the M 6.6 – 173km SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands 2020-05-12 22:41:12 (UTC) 12.106°S 166.569°E 112.4 km depth. The depth makes this a M 6.8. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us70009f12/executive.
These are two different quakes and that is why i have linked my source data. And shows significant energy.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 8, 2020 at 3:54 pm #8801So close. Looks like 5km outside your circle and a few days late to the party. The depth to magnitude chart would make this more like a M5.55. This is why I started making forecasts to start in a few days. I got tired of my 2 week windows ending 1 to 3 days later a quake would strike.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 6, 2020 at 3:34 pm #8797Counselor, sorry for popping in on your forecast and getting you and Lester confused. The discussion is still good stuff!
Lester, I never felt or interpreted any ill feelings or disrespect. 🙂
I’ve also thought that earthquake forecasting might be a combination of different methodologies. What we are doing here could be “earth shattering” LOL and I am very serious about it. The weakness in observational forecasting is you must have prior quakes to forecast the next one. Your system uses a much wider (distance) system to forecast the next one. It could be you locate an area of potential unrest and then my system can tell you the energy (strength/magnitude) rolling around in that area.
It could also be that when we see an area that should experience a quake, and it does not happen, and the whole greater area lays calm quiet, we need to ask, did the the area we are watching for build up more pressure, or where we completely wrong? I am currently applying this to the Juan de Fuca right now. It should have rumbled with at least three different 6.0’s in the last month, but only had 2.0ish quakes. I forecasted one of those and was watching for the others as “tell tails” to strike. Even Dutch was watching for larger energy then I was. So if when we do have a quake out there and it goes off WAY bigger/stronger then we expected, then we have an understanding why.
I’ve been creating a review of all my forecast misses and will have it out in the next few days.
Peace and health to all of us!
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratMay 4, 2020 at 4:31 pm #8790Good morning Lester, just popping in to say hello. I see an increase in 3.0-3.9 activity the last 10 days in North America. I think that is the end of the 4.0-5.0 activity that was running along side the 6.0 activity from the M 6.6 – 209km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2020-04-18 08:25:37 (UTC)27.140°N 140.106°E 453.8 km depth.
That 6.6 hit struck Japan with the 6.3, dropping off 4.8 to 5.1 energy in China (not reported) had a small cluster of deep and shallow upper 4.0s in Afghanistan, then a few 4.0′ in the middle east and in a final bang likely ended it’s run with the 6.6 south of Greece on May 2.
The 4.0 energy that was running along side the 6.6 split, the stronger part went north dropping off energy and slammed into Alaska. A second part took the uncommon route under the north Pacific and bumped into California as weakened 3.0ish energy. The importance of this uncommon route is that it might now be “softened up” for new and larger activity in the weeks to come.
I’m still holding that we will see only under M5.0 activity in North America for the next few days. I continue to watch for:
I am watching for any M 3.0+ in Canada as a leading indicator of energy heading south and into the USA and striking with much stronger strength.
I am watching for any M 4.0+ mid north Pacific between the Latitudes N35 and N45 (there abouts) and that would be a leading indicator that stronger energy will strike west coast USA and inland up to 320km/200mls.
And off subject, I told my wife the “cat flap” story, we are servants to our one cat, and we laughed! Thank you.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 28, 2020 at 4:47 pm #8782Hello everyone. North America has been calm enough I could take a break from forecasting.
I’m going to call it, the larger (M 5.0+) wave of energy in North America has been absorbed and is finished. Now we wait for new energy. My thinking is the push of energy from the Western Pacific against North America has added more pressure to the Juan de Fuca plate and around the San Andreas Fault area and that is where all the remaining energy went. I did review the 2020-04-20 &2020-04-27 M 4.0’s at Ridgecrest California and a few upper M 3.0’s & one M 4.1 at Yellowstone National Park in Idaho, and they all look like “left overs” or aftershocks from earlier larger events.
I am watching for any M 3.0+ in Canada as a leading indicator of energy heading south and into the USA and striking with much stronger strength.
I am watching for any M 4.0+ mid north Pacific between the Latitudes N35 and N45 (there abouts) and that would be a leading indicator that stronger energy will strike west coast USA and inland up to 320km/200mls.
Either or both of these occurring would indicate a new wave of energy in North America
I posted a news article about a research paper published by Stanford University about stress cracks in plates which are different then faults. That link is in “MEMBERS’ Forecasting Tips” and Ben also placed a link in his morning video from 2020-04-24.
Be safe everyone.
Score: 0 -
|
