I will have to check again, but I think that time matches a relaxation period of a major flux that started around 0950 UTC. Might be something significant.
Oh man Lester! Guayaquil popped an M5. Had the right city again, but was off on the timing and magnitude. Another spot that I chose not to extend past 6 or 7 days because certain conditions seemed to change. Lots of mid 4 to 5’s… guess the lithosphere has to build up some more energy after all.
I see Bill & Ted shifted to Luzhin strait near Kamchatka. The weather looks interesting there in the coming days. NOAA has decided to not update the OLR Map room. Still only shows the 25th as I type this…ugh.
That something more I wanted to say is about South Africa. There is something about the TEC signatures and a recurrence of OLR around those two points along South Africa. I went to images as far back as 11/15 and noticed a steady growth/ recurrence for both. And, I have two magnetometer readings that were strong (namely nov 17 around 1022 UTC) that had The Sun over what seems to be Cape Town).
It’s been interesting reading your posts after only getting some time for a quick forecast in Fiji now that I can review some material after the fact. Our game of seismic chess seems to be going piece for piece. 🙂
I dropped Mona passage, but renewed Jakarta and tagged along for Fiji. I’ve been seeing some TEC in Java. But, an interesting OLR and TEC signature made me smile over our shared Japan forecast, yet I have seen a connection to Wuhan in Hubei province and you were already there! Nice! 🙂
Just to note Turkmenistan region has a quake with the OLR I mentioned on its way to Tajikistan. However, missing data in the latest image is frustrating my tracking it’s growth. Still some TEC spillage into that zone where Tajikistan and Turkmenistan meet. Unanswered blots are also suspicious.
I am not sure what I am exactly seeing for Indonesia and this strong TEC that keeps appearing over the Seychelles/Madagascar/ Chagos! When it grows to a certain size, I see what looks like spillage into the Middle East and Central Asia, then it laps at Sumatra a Java before their own TEC appears. Then it sometimes looks likes it’s coming out of countries just east of the Congo to Somalia basin!
I have so much more to say, but family is calling me. I will hope to keep up here. Can’t help but remember saying before about something big for December?
Chat later. Thanks for the back support idea. Trying it now.
Extending this watch for 3 more days to 7 total from initial post. Link to latest OLR in nov 25 shows anomaly returning manado Halmahera. Jakarta may have released some energy, but it was reported at 60km deep on EMSC website. And, OLR image shows data missing from a spot that could be around Jakarta still.
Nice Lester… I haven’t been as active as I probably could have been. Threw my back out and trying to focus on recuperating. I was trying to monitor TEC in the region and there is a very odd rise of it that looks like it blooms over the Seychelles, then spills northward toward Iran/Baku Azerbaijan/Turkmenistan. Then it does a shift over to the west most part of Tajikistan/Pakistan/Afghanistan.
It’s the largest nocturnal TEC signature so far next to ones in areas of the usual suspects including off the south coast of Japan into Philippines, PNG /Indonesia, South America.
Great! Yes, the aftermath does make me sad. I have a coworker with family from Columbia. So, he’ll ask me things on occasion. I know a few people in Northern California gave them a call. Good time to prep a little given there is s long term forecast for California in the coming year.
not to forget that your Palu forecast was nearby from my Manado forecast. That’s a few times now that I have only been East of your forecasts. I am kicking myself for not meeting up with you in Haiti.
Lester… That looks interesting. Just did a quick review of the last big quake in that region and a quake in Iran, plus the deep M4’s in a similar pattern, and a quake in China. Quick glimpse of the seismic history shows this region being more active starting around this time. Could mean it’s time to get started on it’s seismic cycle. That’s lining up. The last big quake was in Murghob, Tajikistan was not too far from this time back in 2015… interesting. The OLR Anomaly chart is showing this odd procession, almost like its dancing, taking a few steps toward that region to only then take a step back. Currently that sits over Iran. If that continues, then it should meet that region around the time you forecast… maybe a day before it holds and grows. I am not seeing much of any weather pattern, mostly highs. However, that OLR in the area is there in Iran is there without much percitipable water and right over the 4.1 near bandar abas…interesting. This spot line with a few other areas I have been looking at when the Magnetic fluxing hit a relaxation point… could be important for build up in the coming days…
Count me in! 🙂 Haven’t taken a trip in the mountains for a while since the pattern is tough to pin down for me. I would be happy to accompany you.
Speaking of Mag flux for me…a UTC I was working with had a sun terminator passing through Kyushu and the spot where a blot popped in sea of ohkhotsk. Couldn’t resist a Bill and Ted post since you mentioned Hollister in Connection to it. Kyushu is stronger with some precursors I look for, but hedged the bet with the Vostok Russia inclusion since OLR and forecasted weather patterns go over both regions.
I hope my choosing Mona over the prince was the right thing to do.
Whoa… not sure if I am having more fun watching each other reach these spots separately or comparing notes. For the joint forecast. You asking about that I forecasted Mona passage before you? My determination was based on magnetic fluxing with both solar and lunar terminator lines, a rather large OLR anomaly that showed up with unanswered blots, and recent weather patterns in the area with the pending coronal hole approach. That’s my rational for 6+.
However, a much larger TEC signal is off the southern facing coast of Japan from ryukyu /hachijo jima/ Tokyo that is grabbing my attention. My prince Edward spot expired, but I might go back in because there is TEC build up and OLR again in the polar regions, but South of Australia is showing it too! Yet, it’s more faint than Haiti/japan and Indonesia regions right now.
I don’t know Lester. Saw Tayrence’s post too. Some agreement in his post as well with sites you, I, and Ben have going on right now.
Unanswered blot in this spot and growing OLR anomaly south of here near Nicobar Island. Extending the watch for this area for 3 more days to a total of 6 and making the forecasted region a line from Mawlaik to Nicobar island tracing along the fault line.
Heads up for Biobio Chile! Mag flux today shows a terminator line crossing over the region, slight TEC signature beginning to build, a slight OLR to moderate showed up multiple times in that zone with the strongest just on the 20th. If the weather creeps up the Chilean south coast like it’s doing, then I am curious about what this will look like in the next day or two.
Any proton readings or t-sequencing lining up on your end?
This reply was modified 6 years, 11 months ago by Counselor.
Are you thinking north of NZ? Like the Aleutian Island chain? What about the other side of Africa? Morocco? I only mentioned this one because of the 5w marker you mentioned.
A pop in Ecuador too! I saw the that Turkey spot hit as well as NZ. Guess what also hit…Yemen. I had a Mag spike around0300 and 0500 UTC on NOV 21 that had a line that drew my attention to Mozambique and off the north coast of California, but it was Yemen. Recent OLR image released today also shows a retreat from California to its north coast line. Shall we shift the forecast for Cali? I renewed it for some of the observations I had been making during your brief break.
Maxing out this forecast to 7 days from initial post. Recent blot echo in Celebes sea/Indonesia region and OLR in close proximity to highlighted zone in my initial post.
Yes. I like the areas you mentioned and not surprising that we are ending up in similar zones. I could ask subcoder for a look too! Going to need to figure out another name as the group gets larger. 😊
