Forum Replies Created
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11 ptsCounselorNovember 6, 2017 at 5:46 pm #3018
Lester,
I have been in deep thought lately about your method and my recent observations. I don’t know if I have asked you before about the magnetometer data versus the ACE Mag contacts you utilize? Are they around the same times?
I think I may have asked about your reference to the connections being spectral, but I wanted to ask (since I have become lost looking through old posts) about the part of the spectrum you are observing? The Radio/IR end, visible light, UV/ ionizing end?
Been feeling pretty good lately and trying to learn as much as I can right now. BTW…do you use a google plus account? Was wondering what your user handle is to send emails. Sometimes I don’t visit this board as often as I check emails.
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorNovember 4, 2017 at 7:40 am #2997Observation #2
Mexico 5.7 on 11/3 at 11:52 UTC
https://photos.app.goo.gl/KUVoOsL0jwCSxT4D2
Repeated Magnetometer flux readings where a moon terminator corresponds to approximate epicenter. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) is later observed. This later followed by deeper level quake (although only 39km in this example) and Total Electron Content (TEC). Moon terminator approaches location of increased TEC. Larger surface quake occurs at 10km and TEC dissipates in that epicenter zone later on.
Score: 011 ptsCounselorNovember 1, 2017 at 3:27 pm #2986Thanks Lester! I will need to sit down and practice this again…hopefully sooner rather than later. I am super stoked about you getting those recent 6+ quakes. I am appreaciating a quiet success of my own…
https://photos.app.goo.gl/137tiUVywlRl2lK92
I was doing a bit of forecasting, but no official post with this image… although bummed I chose not to post, this is still a small victory for me considering my forecasting record. 🙂 Did you see the latest S0 news with the mention of the L shells/ Ionosphere? Ben said new developments with that through ICON, but I can’t help but think of the collective work going on here…
I think you and Hook definitely have something else to add…hopefully we can get some more citizen scientist observations on the board. Maybe I will get lucky with those supporting observations again. 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorOctober 31, 2017 at 1:26 pm #2980Hi Lester,
Thank you for the comments about my link. Those images are what my eyes have begun focusing in on since conversations with you and Hook. So, work that is inspired in part by your efforts too. Not surprised about how it still ties in with the terminator chains you currents have…and glad that it is because I am still thinking about these terminators when I do attempt to forecast. I tried to keep up with your posts because of how close you would get to an area of a quake. Because of time, I have had to try and redo how I forecast just using the tools through quakewatch again. Had an uptick in migraines lately, and I don’t have the spare time like I did in the summer (sadly). So, it’s nice that I can get inside of a region you, Ben, and Hook (when Hook gets back) may also forecast. I am in need playing the long game now and doing images on my phone just practicing a forecast now since my last.
I did see the Indonesia post and was excited for you. I am hoping to come back more frequently as it gets closer to winter break for the school. Looking forward to matching terminator chains if I can. 🙂
Score: 011 ptsCounselorOctober 19, 2017 at 1:28 pm #2963Oh 5.8 sse of Naze, Japan appears to possibly have been on my line…Close, but off by.2 in magnitude (unless that gets corrected later?). I will keep on with this watch for the reminder of time I have from the 15th for now due to other areas I highlighted above (see new link; image info of my screenshot does verify my updated zones starting on October 15th).
Thank you,
Chris G
Score: 011 ptsCounselorOctober 19, 2017 at 3:41 am #2962something happened to my link above and the images reverted to a previous set of highlighted areas. Please view the link below with the updated highlighted images.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/b6oq4rQ5LqNs3lxl1
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorOctober 18, 2017 at 1:29 pm #2958Hello 0bservers,
The M6 in Pangai, Tonga appears to be in my highlighted area, but I realize my map I used was zoomed out to 3000km scale. The circle seems to break the line at that scale but think might still be a miss.
So, I would need help claiming this as a hit. Anyway, closest I have been so far.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorOctober 2, 2017 at 12:43 am #2933Scott,
No worries. I will check out expanding Earth. Taking my time with a couple ideas now anyway so I wish you solid rest and recuperation.Lester,
Saw a post you made about northern Myanmar. My looking at few things brought me nearby (mag fluxes, Sun/moon terminators, OLR, and weather). Looks like EMSC validated the region recently! USGS doesn’t have this area noted. I have seen you point this out before and I have been curious as to why this happens.https://photos.app.goo.gl/B5tbj3eZdDpoLMZ43
Hope all is well with you too! After I made my recent post, I have seen you have been busy.
-Chris [counselorgimber]
Score: 011 ptsCounselorSeptember 30, 2017 at 1:55 pm #2929Hook,
I messaged you and was interested in hearing the revisions you wanted to explain with plate tectonics? I have another miss for the Philippines and Indonesia, but wasn’t necessarily using traditional plate tectonics for those areas or when I was tracking Mexico.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorSeptember 24, 2017 at 6:01 am #2913To Whomever sees this,
Would we still want to use USGS or is EMSC reliable enough for considering a shrinking of a watch area when the depth doesn’t match? If we use EMSC, do the 10km deep quakes make sense as aftershocks?
https://photos.app.goo.gl/rVyvjt9SjmcWdGx82
Score: 011 ptsCounselorSeptember 24, 2017 at 5:47 am #2912Hello Ben,
Hook and Lester have been great! I currently have a forecast for the Philippines using much of what they both taught me, including the tools you provide. I did see some more activity in areas I highlighted today, but I think I may have been eager again in my post and I am seeing the 29th coming up.
Score: 011 pts11 ptsCounselorSeptember 22, 2017 at 3:30 pm #2906Tracking movement of deeper quakes and developing OLR in region southeast of previous line at Philippines. I am extending a line from original forecast during this remaining watch period I posted above.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/dbA9lAVUNpi1zqiE2
Score: 011 pts11 pts11 pts11 pts11 ptsCounselorSeptember 10, 2017 at 7:35 pm #2863Lester and Hook,
A few notes that were pre-earthquake, but I added my post-earthquake screen shots because (had I the time before the quake) this is how I have been loosely using Lester’s terminator idea most of the time with all that we use here at our disposal (I don’t always get to do the two tabs and felt pen because I have to use a phone a majority of the time). It is hard to cross reference all this, but thought you would like to see it because I truly lost track of this spot starting around 8/14 through to 9/7 (work was busy sheesh)…Lester, I even noted your Mag spike on August 2nd that will now make me miss Ace even more with how the weather formed up in that location. Hopefully my clues are useful for sharing as well.
8.1 Combo Analysis:
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https://photos.app.goo.gl/dQofvMmpCacNHfq8211 ptsCounselorSeptember 10, 2017 at 6:21 pm #2862Hi Lester,
I did the tabs idea, with felt tip pen no less, to see that the spot I marked became an intersecting point with with terminator at the time of the X-class flare. The tie-in with blots is that on that day 8/21, at 1839 UTC, a 215km deep M4 quake struck that day. I was also noticing a blot or two early on at the time I made my forecast, with early low convergence lines in that region that seemed to line up with Chiapas and Central America up until I got too busy to come back and renew my forecast, not to forget that Hurricane that Ben Davidson pointed out had been sitting on the fault that ends up pointing to the Chiapas region. I have shared some screen shots of the “horseshoe” pattern that seems to give the spot away because of how many of those spots went unanswered during the drought…and the semi-circle seems interesting to point out now with the subduction zone along the west coast and all that hurricane energy flowing along that slip fault that runs into Guatemala…looked interesting for later analysis. Now that the solar activity may be picking up, hopefully more points of convergence for you Lester! Although I was using the basic tools, I had been “loosely” using your model to zone in there the first time. I just needed to be patient 🙂
Link to the blots preceding 8.1:
https://photos.app.goo.gl/XbL2MHlhAyJYLeUY2
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