Forum Replies Created
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115 ptslesterDecember 7, 2020 at 6:32 pm #9865
Thank you Marco, your enthusiasm does you credit. However, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano in Kamchatka has erupted 7 times since this forecast was originally posted. It is practically a daily occurrence, and therefore not entirely unexpected. Besides, this forecast is for an earthquake, and it would not be appropriate or official to substitute one for the other, unless an eruptive event was stated in the forecast accordingly.
Your message said “Please renew this forecast” with a sense of urgency… an equivalent does not equate to expected significance… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 7, 2020 at 12:10 am #9860On 6th Dec (at the time of this post), a small 6 member swarm of 2’s occurred on the west flank of Mt Etna volcano… this swarm occurred within a period of 22 minutes between 22:38:26 UTC – 22:59:20 UTC. One other event occurred earlier in the day , and this totaled 7 events which was the highest number of events in this region since 24th October. There have been no further seismic / volcanic correlations with Mt Etna since the listed events referenced in the previous post. But a “rare” M 4.0 event in the Tyrrhenian Sea at 01:50:03 UTC on this day, does share the same sunset threshold as Mt Etna.
Continuing this forecast for 3 days from 00:10 UTC December 7
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 6, 2020 at 6:57 pm #9859Observed… M 6.1 Tarapaca, Chile 16:47:42 UTC 6th Dec. the ATB threshold was located in Vanuatu at approx 16’35’S… half way between Port-Olry and Port-Vila. The ATE threshold was located along the west coast of Greece and Albania… and it was moonset on the Cayman Ridge, Cuba !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 5, 2020 at 3:06 pm #9857https://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
On 5th Dec at 01:41 UTC, an eruption occurred from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan. At “12-hours” earlier 13:41 UTC 4th Dec, the moon was located on longitude 155’39’W… North flank of Mauna Loa volcano !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 5, 2020 at 1:20 pm #9852I have been experiencing problems accessing my mailbox for several days. I reviewed my data and the only correlations seem to be the ones I previously referenced. However, I will adhere to your request if you are confident with your own data sets… and hope my special solar flare technique pays off too… 🙂
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 13:20 UTC December 5
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2020 at 11:30 pm #9846A follow up to Ebeko…
On 4th Dec at 21:20 UTC, it was sunrise on Mt Ebeko volcano !
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2020 at 11:01 pm #9844Broke my ankles in a fall some 20 years ago, but this was not the most harrowing part of this accident. Whilst donning plaster casts, I became depressed because I had not been able to take a bath for weeks. My wife found some bath socks on eBay, designed to be worn over casts, and then inflated to keep water out. So there I was enjoying a well overdue bath, with my legs floating in front of me. Then I held my nose and ducked under the water like I always did. Very relaxing moment, and then panic set in when I realized I could not submerge my legs to push myself to the surface again. Sheer luck that I managed to release the sock valves and eliminate buoyancy, just as my own air was becoming depleted !
My rubber duck nearly became an orphan… and I have only taken showers ever since !
For anyone just tuning in, we also predict earthquakes on this website… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2020 at 10:28 pm #9843https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=926898
The HVO report has stated that data measurements have returned to normal levels, similar to the past several months. But I agree with you that this may not be the case during the coming days. My method of seismic correlations is strongly suggesting that the primary target is Mauna Loa… including this most recent event posted here…
On 4th Dec at 20:30:11 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred on the Mid-Indian ridge. At this time, it was moonset on the North flank of mauna Loa volcano. At “12-hours” earlier 08:30 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on most of the Islands of Vanuatu (strong influence !), and the RLT was located on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands… another eruption likely during the next 24-hours !
JEC… thank you for your input, and support sir !
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2020 at 7:56 pm #9840Yo Mark, I did you the courtesy of replying to you with a “sincerely” humorous response. And have been eagerly awaiting your paper on North America, which was slated for the morning of 3rd December !
Are you getting back with the program… or did you also injure your fingers in this fall ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 4, 2020 at 12:40 am #9837Thank you for the compliment Marco, it was indeed a good call, but you misinterpreted its significance by referencing the date in the title. My bad because I wanted to try and compare data sets with my previous attempt… therefore using the original post. Between 6th – 20th November, Mt Sakurajima volcano actually erupted and exploded 6 times. And during this period, I was logging multiple seismic correlations. After the 20th Nov, there were no further correlations with this volcano until 29th Nov. During this 8 day period, no further eruptions or explosions were recorded. The object of the forecast was to try and predict continuation of activity within 48 hours. This was not achieved, but significant correlations had occurred on the day of expiry, prompting me to extend my forecast for another 48 hours. However, Mt Sakurajima erupted 1 hour 10 minutes into this second extension, so it was actually achieved in 49 hours 10 minutes… 🙂
Certain volcanoes in the regions of Japan, Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka are frequently active due to their day break correlations with highly seismic regions such as the Philippines and Indonesia. If you compare this to volcanoes that are infrequently active (eruptions / explosions) in the Central American belt. The only daybreak correlation these volcanoes have experience with, is with the Pacific Ocean !
On 2nd December at 23:52 UTC, an explosion occurred from Mt Suwanosejima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands… at this time it was moonset on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands. Mt Ebeko last erupted at 22:08 UTC 29th November. Mt Suwanosejima is the only correlation I have logged with Mt Ebeko since 29th Nov.
With my daily analysis, I knew this event was going to occur. But between 24th November and the present, Mt Ebeko had erupted a total of 5 times. Predicting an eruption from this volcano, whilst it is maintaining this current rate of activity, would be akin to predicting a 2.5 in Hawaii… there is no challenge here !
One final point, if you are employing event times of volcanic activity to formulate your forecast. It is possible to use 12 hour windows for determinations, and in some cases 24 hour windows if it corresponds with your computations i.e. On 3rd Dec at 21:50 UTC, an eruptive event occurred from Mt Ebeko volcano. At “12-hours” earlier 09:50 UTC, it was moonset on coordinates 01’54’W – 37’42’N West of Murcia, Southern Spain… 🙂
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 2, 2020 at 4:55 pm #9826On 30th Nov at 22:54:34 UTC, an M 6.4 event occurred in the Tatar Strait, Russia. This was followed 25 seconds later by an M 6.3 event in Salta, Argentina. There is nothing overly significant about the magnitude range of these events. But the fact that they occurred several thousand kilometres apart, within the same minute, could be deemed a rare event, and may be of relevance !
At these event times, the moon was located on longitudes 20’17’E and 20’11’E respectively. Considering activity that has occurred in Greece today, I thought these lunar correlations might be worth mentioning !
I noted the M 4.5 in the Attica region, and therefore you were on target here too. It is only the constraints of timing that this was not an official success. My philosophy is that if a seismic anomaly begins to appear in data sets, it does not necessarily indicate an event is imminent. It could imply that the anomaly has reached a specific stress level, that is detectable in satellite data, seismic correlations, OLR signatures etc, or what ever method you chose to employ. The actual event could occur several days or weeks later. And this is one reason why I post a few days on a potential location, then wait for further data before proceeding. I am sure Ben is aware of this buildup period, and why we are given the option of 20 days per forecast, compared to other prediction websites.
Score: 0115 ptslesterDecember 2, 2020 at 1:28 pm #9823Hey Mark,
Thank you for your detailed and witty explanation. Several members had expressed concern at your absence… but I wasn’t one of them 🙂
I would wish you a speedy recovery, but if you are still thinking about “Juan de Fuca”, this may take longer than expected LOL
Get well soon !
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 ptslesterDecember 1, 2020 at 8:02 pm #9820https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=925849
M 5.1 South Sandwich Islands … 1st December
Score: 0115 ptslesterNovember 30, 2020 at 9:38 pm #9815On 30th Nov at 00:37:04 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in the Tonga Region. This event corresponded with moonrise in the Channel islands Region… compared with moonrise in Santa Barbara at 00:35 UTC. I calculated this event against the previously mentioned correlations, and it equates to 119’50’E – 34’24’N Santa Cruz Island. However, my computations have been a little off target lately… so no guarantees.
Further to this, I posted a forecast yesterday for Kamchatka, with inclusion of my special solar flare technique ( 🙂 ). This has so far only produced an M 4.5, but the event occurred today at 14:46:24 UTC. At 14:46 UTC, it was sunrise in the Channel Islands on the stated coordinates… and sunrise occurred in Santa Barbara at 14:47 UTC !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterNovember 29, 2020 at 11:30 pm #9811Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 23:30 UTC November 29 … focus remains on Crete !
Ref; Mt Suwanosejima volcano 26/11 – 5.1 Southwest Indian Ridge 26/11 – 5.1 Southern Mid-Atlantic 27/11 – Mt Ebeko volcano 29/11 – ACE 15:06 UTC 29/11 – 5.4 Kermadec Islands 29/11
Thank you
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