Forum Replies Created
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115 ptslesterJune 29, 2020 at 3:01 pm #9146
Hello,,, Earth to Tayrance… are you still here buddy ?… 🙂
Apologies if the current crisis is having an impact on you
Double hit on 16th June… don’t like seeing a “Good Call” go to waste !
Hope everything is Okay !
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 28, 2020 at 7:31 pm #9133Mark,
I was checking out your google circles, and came up with something unusual. It may or may not be anything to do with your hypothesis, but if you follow these instructions, you can make up your own mind if it means something !. Coordinates have to be as accurately pined as possible…
On google earth, locate the M 7.4 South of Kermadec Islands epicentre on coordinates 177.838’W – 33.294’S… place and save a pin at this location. Locate the M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre on coordinates 95.901’W – 16.029’N… place and save a pin at this location. Using the circle option, locate coordinates 160.060’E – 50.685’N… this can be found just East of Mt Ebeko. Extend the circle South from this point, and place / save it on to the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre. If you rotate the earth back to the M 7.4 Oaxaca epicentre, the circle should be in contact with the pin. Of less relevance… the circle continues and crosses the North flanks of Mt Etna volcano.
I found the exact start point for the circle East of Mt Ebeko, and then spent a further 2 hours trying different locations in this general area. It only works if start point of circle is exactly on latitude 50.685’N… this is the exact same latitude as Mt Ebeko volcano !
According to http://www.volcanodiscovery.com Mt Ebeko volcano is currently the most eruptive volcano on the planet… with a total of 10 eruptions since 21st June. With this amount of activity, I would speculate that further seismic activity could ensue in this region. I checked the archives and found the following…
2013-03-24 04:18:33 UTC – M 5.9 ESE of Ozernovskiy, Russia … 160.159’E – 50.731’N (listed as M 6.0 EMSC)
2019-03-28 22:06:49 UTC – M 6.2 ESE of Ozernovskiy, Russia … 159.943’E – 50.495’N (listed as M 6.1 EMSC)
This shows that earthquakes do occur at this start point, and combined with current activity from Mt Ebeko volcano… it does hold potential. I will check this out further with my method when I get time, but it would be interesting to see if seismic wave influence could be correlated to this location too !
I have been working my own analysis of the 23rd June Oaxaca event… and just refining a few details. But I have a small exercise for you to try, so you can see how I look at these scenarios. My calculations are accurate to the second, but you will get the general idea with the times provided.
Load http://www.timeanddate.com and select “Moon Light World Map”… input 11th June 23:52 UTC. At this time, it was Solar Noon (high noon) on the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre… The SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located on the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre… and the SLT was also located on Mt Ebeko volcano.
Click “+12 hours” at base of map… On 12 June at 11:52 UTC, it was Sunrise on the M 7.4 Oaxaca epicentre… and the sun was on the opposite longitude to the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre.
Click “+1 day” at base of map… On 13th June at 11:52 UTC, it was Sunrise on the M 7.4 Oaxaca epicentre… the RLT was located on the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre… and the sun was on the opposite longitude to the M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre.
Click “+12 hours” at base of map… On 13th June at 23:52 UTC, it was Solar noon on the M 7.4 kermadec epicentre… and the RLT was located on Mt Etna volcano.
Real eye opener… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 28, 2020 at 1:13 am #9124I formulated a forecast for the Andaman Islands region, based on the M 4.0 Ghana event. Methodology employed is similar to my M 2.9 Preston fracking analysis. Theory goes that if an event occurs in the Andaman Island region, within an acceptable time period… it may indicate that the Ghana event was part of a seismic cycle. If nothing happens, then the Ghana even was correctly assessed by you, as being related to water volume within the reservoir… but this is just an experiment, and “not” to be taken seriously !
Good talking with you too buddy !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 28, 2020 at 12:34 am #9123I would also like to add, your humour is really appreciated. I’m a Yorkshire man myself, and it is in our blood to dabble in a little dry humour on occasion. I have been on several forums, but my best material on this site has always made me feel like the court jester relegated to a monestary lol. Earthquakes are a serious subject, and I already learned a hard lesson about humour and earthquakes, with my Guatemala / Mt Fuego incident that I mentioned several weeks ago.
Unfortunately, Counselor keeps being included in my punch lines. But he knows me, he knows I am a “serious” player, and he knows that I would never intentionally offend him… or anyone else for that matter. Humour is good for the predictive spirit, and if you post something that you imagine makes someone else smile thousands of miles away, its worth including with the serious stuff !
I’ll finish now before I make a “DAM” fool of myself… Doh! too late 🙁
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 27, 2020 at 11:44 pm #9121This has to be the best counter explanation I have seen in many years my friend 🙂 . It was not my intention to put you on the spot so to speak. I have had to endure being eaten alive by genuine USGS and BGS assessors in the past… and they tore me to pieces. I have since had many years to refine my hypothesis, but age is now against me and I have no enthusiasm to take up the mantle again. A bit like the gladiator who once had a foot in the Colosseum in Rome… but is now reduced to fighting in the shanty towns lol.
There is nothing wrong with the principle of your hypothesis, and I think it is merely a case of testing it against other examples. I also think it would be more beneficial to you, if you committed to actual predictive forecasting… rather than keep posting watches. It is better to miss trying, rather than speculate an active location, event occurs… and you end up being buried in the forum with no credit to your name. South Sandwich Islands, a good call… this would have been a more credible attempt than my own, had it been an official forecast. And this is because you were bang on with the timing. This is a solitary business we are involved in, but each hit, even by a fellow forecaster makes us all feel we have achieved something. Becca got a triple hit recently, after a long absence due to a loss in the family. After what she had been through, I could think of no one more deserving to achieve this success… but it was also a pick me up for all of us.
At the end of the day, we are all trying to find an answer to the same problem. I’m sure every one has a little advice to offer you, if it helps towards an end goal… even Counselor lol. Right now, you are in the shanty towns with me, if you start building up credit as I advised… you may one day get your foot in the Colosseum 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 27, 2020 at 10:06 pm #9118Mark,
I have been trying your “circle hypothesis”, so unlike me, you have feedback from your instructions. Unfortunately, I am having trouble understanding how the circle intersections “directly” relate to your watch region. so as you can appreciate I have questions…
I followed the instructions exactly as you stated, and calculated the Ebeko intersection as being on coordinates 156’14’E – 51’19’N. This location places Mt Ebeko volcano at 71 km’s (44 miles) SSE of the intersection. The M 7.4 South of the Kermadec Islands event occurred on 18th June… the Oaxaca, Mexico event occurred on 23rd June. Your opening line reads “Observed: Mount Ebeko volcano is erupting”. Mt Ebeko started erupting on 21st June after 10 days of inactivity. If the intersection was not directly in contact with Mt Ebeko, and the second circle event occurred 2 days after it first erupted… how does it relate to this equation ? On two counts, you mention “Mount Ebeko volcano which is erupting” Your words do not imply that this equation is related to triggering eruption of Mt Ebeko, merely that it is within the percentage point of a perfect triangle. If trigger theory is not the objective of this statement… why include Mt Ebeko at all ?
The South Sandwich Islands intersection, I calculated as being on coordinates 32’42’W – 54’03’S. There have now been 3 events in the South Sandwich region since you posted this watch. I measured distance from intersection to epicentre, and these calculate as…
26th June – M 4.9 – 25’23’W – 59’52’S ….. 792 km’s – 492 mls
26th June – M 5.3 – 25’22’W – 56’45’S ….. 535 km’s – 343 mls
27th June – M 5.1 – 26’46’W – 56’09’S ….. 445 km’s – 276 mlsAs you can see, the distances vary by “several degrees” from the intersection. The location of the intersection never experiences seismic activity, yet these events are presumably related to this point… how ?
You have posted an exercise for fellow forecasters to attempt, which as mentioned I have done so accordingly. But this exercise does not explain why your watch location is situated 727 km’s – 452 miles, or 6.53 degrees Southeast of the intersection, on coordinates 24’11’W – 58’33’S !. You state that your chosen location is at one of DutchSince “X” or end points… and MOST QUAKES strike near this point. Over 90% of earthquakes in the South Sandwich Islands, occur between 24’W – 26’W longitude. If you gave us an exercise to follow, and your actual watch point is over 6 degrees away from the stated intersection… what are we supposed to learn from this ?. If I wanted a quick fix from New Britain P.N.G. I simply predict 151’W, 90% of earthquakes in this region occur within a short margin of this longitude. It is a way of avoiding using “skill factor”, and you are only cheating yourself !
I know you are still learning as you have mentioned on frequent occasions… So don’t take my questions to heart. I know from experience that any hypothesis, no matter how long it has been in use, is constantly being developed. For a hypothesis to work, it has to withstand scrutiny and scepticism. If you can answer the questions put before you without hesitation, then it becomes classed as a “working” hypothesis… and this is were others engage with you, to further develop its potential.
Lastly, as another learning curve. Consider your wording in respect of fellow predictors before you post. “Correctly watched for” could be conceived as a credit worthy achievement. Your “time period” for your watch makes it a credible achievement, which is what I presume is meant by your opening words of your second post. If other forecasters have been predicting this region prior to you, and their forecast is still active, then credit for correct determination of location rightly belongs to them. We have on many occasions doubled up on predicted locations, but we usually add in our forecasts “First Credit To ######”. Its just a polite gesture, and shows respect… and besides, you wouldn’t want to crossing circles with someone that may be able to analyse you under the table… 🙂
Sincerely trying to understand !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 27, 2020 at 4:50 pm #9115Hey Fred, thanks for your reply. I have been trying for over a decade to solve my 12 hour window conundrum. I have tried several times to engage with the scientific community on this matter. But I have never managed to get there interest in the basic structure of my hypothesis… let alone 12 hour windows. I was once categorised as “delusional” by the physics department at Manchester University, England… so I guess I got somebody’s attention 🙂
I believe it is somehow related to magnetism, not gravity. Back in the day, I was pretty heavy into astronomy, and actually constructed a subterranean observatory at the bottom of my garden. Got a nice view down green valleys from my house, and didn’t want to spoil this with a white dome… so dug a deep hole and became a hobbit with a telescope. I went on to gain enough merits to qualify for a certificate of contempory science with the OU. And my passion for observing asteroids, led me to being part of a team that calculated orbital perturbations. Corrections were sent to a central hub in Kansas US. Anyone using self updating astronomy software during the mid to late 2000’s… some of the updated asteroid positions were attributed to me lol. A mental breakdown and minus a few brain cells later, it is mostly just memories now. However, one of my last projects I carried out, was experimentation with radio astronomy. I constructed an unusual antenna for solar monitoring, and after several months of operation, it started recording elevated spectrum levels in my software program. These would usually persist for periods of 1 hour 20 mins to 1 hour 50 mins etc… but only occurred 2 – 3 times per week on average. Science teaches you that in cases such as this, you have to eliminate the variables before coming to any conclusion. As I could not relate these anomalies to current solar activity, I always assumed it was some kind of man made interference. It wasn’t long after that I discovered an interesting coincidence with the ACE magnetic data. My recorded anomalies were similar to the ACE Phi data… kind of like horizontal rectangular format. Then I discovered that on several occasions, timings of my anomalies exactly matched the Phi structures in ACE. “Oh! I must be good” I thought… I have somehow tapped into the ACE satellite feed 🙂 .
Obviously, I soon realised this was not the case, and further investigation eventually led me to earthquakes. Resulting from a serendipitous calculation, I correlated the period of these anomalies to the same period of time between ATB to sunrise, or sunset to ATE at specific latitudes on earth… several days later, significant earthquakes would occur on these latitudes. Therefore, I had stumbled on a method of precursory detection. It took several years to figure out how this was possible, and I concluded it was related to the design of my antenna. I had used metal-alloy rods to stabilise the antenna in strong winds, and these were acting like grounding rods… or electrodes. VLF traces in the spectral program were being distorted by magnetism interacting with the system.
On the theme of magnetism… leading up to the last solar maximum, the anomalies started appearing more frequently. When a major event occurred, it would cause severe continuous distortions in my spectral recordings. The only way to correct this was to heat treat the feed plug at the antenna. It was a “magnetic” lock on the system… the only way to remove magnetism is heat !. My radio experiment eventually built up to 3 systems, 3 antennas connected to laptops running spectral software, and powered by 12 hour rechargeable batteries. During a 3 year period around solar maximum, I was getting through an average of 10 batteries a year. Not because they expired with use, but because occasional seismic feedback would accelerate power usage, and deplete the battery of energy within an hour… subsequently burning the unit out. At $300 per unit, you can appreciate that this was an expensive endeavour. I only have one operational system now, which as stated, is mostly due to expense. This was switched off in January this year, because I have discovered that during the period solar minimum… the anomalies cease to occur.
When I first joined Quake Watch in 2017, I used these rectangular formatted anomalies to successfully predict several 6+ events… and subsequently appeared on Ben’s SO show in relation to these hits. Three years ago, the sun was still producing solar flares etc. This might be a bit of a drawn out explanation I have provided. But I hope it gives an insight into why I insist on perusing my threshold hypothesis. And why I believe “magnetism” plays a big part in the seismic process.
In my San Francisco forecast, I recently posted a prediction for Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu Japan. Prediction was for an erupt to occur within a 48 hour period of 01:00 UTC 22nd June. My reason was an aspect change had occurred in the ACE data, and I related this to the lunar for-glow (RLT) being located on this volcano at this time (another scientific mystery !). Prior to this forecast, Mt Sakurajima had not erupted since 10th June. On 23rd June at 20:35 UTC, Mt Sakurajima erupted, and this was within my stated 48 hour period. It has not erupted or exploded since, and I have not witnessed any significant threshold correlations since this eruption. Now, if you look at this from the perspective of the scientific community, I predicted a volcanic eruption… using Moonlight !. So, how long do you think it would be before they would consider my 12 hour window theory ?… see what I mean !
I have been trying to pursue naturally occurring patterns related to threshold correlations with seismic locations, which indicate a process of self propagation. I can currently not relie on my observatory equipment, so I keep analysing and posting these patterns on sites like this one. This is difficult because I cannot provide maps and graphs to back up my theory… only give guidance to online tools. so I can appreciate that to most people, my determinations are just a jumble of words and numbers. But some day, I am hoping I will be rewarded for my efforts… but I hope its not posthumously, because time is getting short 🙂
I have see a lot of different theories come and go during my seismic endeavour. We have been trying to solve this problem since the birth of modern seismology in 1906. And it amazes me how many of the old theories keep coming back in a revamped style, only to produce the same results… not seen anything to do with Moonlight though !!
Fred…thank you for acknowledging my post.
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 26, 2020 at 4:14 pm #9104Hey JEC,
We seem to keep connecting on similar themes… Hawaii, Iceland etc. I also took an interest in the M 4.0 event in Ghana on 24th June. Earthquakes in this region of Southwest Africa are “very rare”, and my vested interest lies with a friend living in a neighbouring country. I noted how close the event occurred to the Weija dam complex, and there is info online relating to the concerns of local residents. However, not wanting to change focus from your more “realistic” theory, I inevitably came up with an alternative theory of my own… this kind of thing happens on prediction sites lol. I also endorse your idea to include dams and fracking in your decision process, for reasons I will explain later. When a rare event like the one in Ghana occurs, I investigate the epicentre location via the sun / moon thresholds (sunrise / sunset etc). I call it a T sequence run, basically checking threshold history against post seismic or volcanic locations. In this case, this is what I found…
On 24th June at 22:53:52 UTC, the M 4.0 event occurred in Ghana on coordinates 00’20’W – 5’37’N. At this time, the RLT ( Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on coordinates 141’09’E – 35’27’N. This is the location of the post seismic M 5.9 South of Honshu, Japan epicentre… which occurred 3 hours earlier at 19:47:44 UTC.
On 24th June at 04:31 UTC, the ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on the Ghana epicentre… and it was Moonrise on coordinates 44’01’E – 38’33’N. This is the location of the pre seismic M 5.4 Turkey-Iran border event, which occurred 5.5 hours later at 10;03:31 UTC. It is also noteworthy to mention that the moon was located on longitude 151’52’E at 04:31 UTC. On 23rd June at 15:29:55 UTC, an M 5.0 event occurred in New Britain P.N.G on longitude 151’55’E. Time of 04:31 UTC is of particular interest to me, because it also corresponds with the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) on my Baja, California forecast. ACE recorded another significant aspect change at this time on 25th June. It compounds the issue because it may also represent further activity in Ghana !
On 24th June at 19:34 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the Ghana epicentre… and the ATE threshold was also located on coordinates 27’48’E – 38’47’N. This is the pre seismic location of the M 5.2 Western Turkey event of 26th June at 07:21:12 UTC.
On 24th June at 21:24 UTC (90 minutes before event) it was Moonset on the Ghana epicentre… the ATB threshold was located on coordinates 82’27’E – 35’37’N, location of the pre seismic M 6.4 Hotan, China epicentre of 25th June at 21:05:18 UTC… the SLT (setting Lunar Threshold) was located on Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanoes in Italy… and the SLT was also on my Dam South Sandwich Islands forecast !
This analysis represents several significant correlations from the T sequence run. In my opinion, this region will be at a greater threat level if an event occurs in Baja. Many of my calculations show opposite correlation events do occur, shortly after a primary event… primary event could be either location !
Relating back to your decision process; On 26th August 2019, an M 2.9 event occurred at a fracking site in Preston, England. I did some calculations on this event, and concluded seismic activity would occur on the Kashmir-India border, because the T sequence showed an opposite threshold correlation… hence I posted a forecast accordingly. On 8th Sept at 02:34:32 UTC, an M 4.7 event occurred in this region. Less than 48 hours later, an M 4.9 event occurred in the same region on 9th Sept at 06:40:31 UTC. This 4.9 event was the largest magnitude event to occur here since an M 5.0 event occurred in August 2011. And EMSC records show that as of 2005 (start point of records) no two events have occurred in this region within 48 hours of each other. My forecast failed because I predicted mag 5 or above. But if you want to troll back through the forum records, you will see my Kashmir forecast “with reference” to the 2.9 Preston fracking event included. Fracking in the UK was halted after this event due to public pressure, but I always ask myself the question; if this event was man made, how did I get so close to a rare double hit in Kashmir ?
Hope you don’t mind this contribution, because it took a long “dam” time to compile… 🙂
Conformation of my analysis can be found using…
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 25, 2020 at 11:00 pm #9095M 6.4 Southeast of Hotan, China…
There are a few mountains between your forecast coordinates and the epicentre, but you are the only member predicting China… and you provided informative reasons for your chosen location.
Duly noted with fellow forecasters !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 25, 2020 at 12:50 am #9090Mark,
I believe you deserve some recognition here, because your working hypothesis has produced a result on this occasion… namely the M 5.8 Lone Pine event of 24th June. It occurred between 20th – 30th June in Southwest USA as you unofficially predicted.
So credit where credit is due, and I am a little less sceptical today… about 3% less 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJune 24, 2020 at 8:46 pm #9084Counselor,
If I could rely on this happening every time you posted, I’d swap my calculator for a calendar… and watch Netflix movies all day 🙂
First Lone Pine swarm member occurred as an M 4.5 on 23rd June at 00:25:44 UTC… the ATE threshold was located on Puerto Rico. Later on this day at 20:34:02 UTC, an M 4.6 occurred in Puerto Rico, and at 20:35 UTC Mt Sakurajima volcano erupted in Kyushu, Japan. Don’t know what this means, but if you didn’t post a forecast for Puerto Rico at end of May… then we need not worry lol.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 24, 2020 at 4:49 pm #9079Hey Becca,
Really sorry to hear of your loss, and can fully appreciate how you must feel. I have lost close friends to this living nightmare we have all had to endure during the past 3 – 4 months. Your circumstances may be different, but I always take heart that my friends are gone… but they will never be forgotten !
My sincere condolences
Lester
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 pts -
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