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115 ptslesterJune 3, 2020 at 3:45 pm #8981
The locations in this forecast, were derived from experimentation related to trigger theories. This theory relates to the possibility that threshold correlations with undetermined locations, 12 hours prior to seismic occurrence, may be of relevant interest towards trigger analysis. Therefore the location selection process, was a simple matter of taking all 5+ seismic and volcanic event times, between 20th – 31st May. Deducting 12 hours from these event times, and determining positions of solar / lunar thresholds with the aid of http://www.timeanddate.com in respect of these new times. Total Correlating points in the maps for this period, amounted to 16 different locations. Locations in the forecast were then selected from those receiving 10 or more threshold correlations. The idea itself is unconventional, but I have noted over several years, a 12 hour window relationship on many occasions… just unclear how or why this sometimes fits the seismic picture !
On 3rd June at 07:35:34 UTC, an M 6.8 event occurred in Antofagasta, Chile on coordinates 68’25’W – 23’17’S. At this time, it was 1 minute from Sunset on Mt Cleveland volcano in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska… and the RLT was located in the Flores Sea on my stated forecast coordinates. The rising / setting lunar threshold (RLT / SLT) represents the foreglow and afterglow accossiated with the moon, prior to moonrise or after moonset on the horizon… and this calculates at approximately “4 minutes”. Deducting “12 hours” from this event time, calculates as 2nd June 19:35:34 UTC. At this time, the RLT was located on coordinates 68’25’W – 23’17’S, which according to USGS is the epicentre location of the M 6.8 Antofagasta event… the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on Skiros Island in the Aegean Sea, on my stated forecast coordinates… and the moon was located on longitude “25’52’E”. At 07:35:34 UTC 2nd June, exactly 24 hours prior to this event occurring, it was Moonset on this M 6.8 epicentre, and Sunset on Mt Cleveland volcano. This can be confirmed using http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com On 3rd June at 09:03:29 UTC, an M 5.2 event occurred SSE of Lerapetra, Crete, on longitude “25’54’E”.
The last eruption from Mt Cleveland volcano, occurred on 2nd June at 06:32 UTC. At “12 hours” earlier 18:32 UTC 1st June, the SLT was located in the Flores Sea, on my stated forecast coordinates.
On 3rd June at 09:31:36 UTC, an M 5.9 event occurred SSW of Tonga, on longitude 176’35’W (EMSC listed as 176’43’W)… the moon was located on longitude 175’45’W at this time. Adding “4 Minutes” to this event time, and moon longitude calculates as 176’41’W… the event occurred “4 minutes” before lunar zenith !!
I have tried this theory in the past, and did not achieve positive results, but I didn’t include volcanoes back then… so who knows !
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterJune 3, 2020 at 2:17 pm #8978OH! soooo close Fred, I know how you must feel. All I can say is, don’t drink coffee whilst using your computer… because of moments like this 🙂
I think you should post in proclamations as “predicted by”, rather than successful. And if you include a brief analysis how you determined this location, it may benefit others… and we (you) will have permanent record of this event.
6.8’s don’t happen every day… so every little detail helps !
Definitely a hit in my book !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 30, 2020 at 4:23 pm #8968https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=863060
On 30th May at 03:06:23 UTC, it was Sunrise South of Lerapetra, Crete, Greece… Sunset in Tonopah, Nevada… and Moonrise on Mt Kuchionerabu-jima volcano in Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Mt Kuchinoerabu-jima volcano last erupted on 13th may at 11:46 UTC… It was Moonrise (RLT) in Port Villa, Vanuatu at this time !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 30, 2020 at 1:20 am #8960Strategic adjustment…
adjusting coordinates for kermadec Islands Region to 178’10’W – 32’50’S
Resetting magnitude for Kermadec Islands Region to 5.3 – 6.6
Recent data and current activity on 179’E longitude, correlates with previous data and determination for this region in my V.C.ALERTS forecast of 5th May… subject data was volcanic correlations !
Thank you… 01:20 UTC 30th May
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 29, 2020 at 9:17 pm #8957https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=862941
On 29th May at 20:14:52 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 124’20’W i.e. Solar Noon (High Noon) in Petrolia / Ferndale, California… and it was sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan !
When those pesky mag 2 Croatian events are in your face, as an EMSC red “possibly felt” alert… think again !!
Ref; San Francisco forecast… #8940
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 28, 2020 at 5:47 pm #8948Hey Fred,
Sounds like the virus is messing you about too. But I guess a little time on your hands, will help you refine your theories. However, I don’t think it needs to much refining, just dumb luck that your timing has been off with recent attempts. well at least you are using real tools and data, unlike my wacky correlating ideas… you ever been to Croatia ?… 🙂
Doing some re-modelling with my model, I’m getting in the right regions, but at a greater marginal difference to what my data is telling me… sure I’ll work it out !
Not sure about Gulf of Alaska, but Antofagasta may turn out to be a good call !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 28, 2020 at 5:05 pm #8947https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=861227
https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=862446
Continuing this forecast for 13 days from 17:05 UTC May 28
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 8:34 pm #8942https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=862140
EMSC or USGS… who should we believe ??
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 5:18 pm #8940An analysis for Ferndale, Petrolia, and San Francisco, California… based on solar / lunar relations with Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan.
The following table represent Sunrise (left) and Sunset (right) at Mt Sakurajima volcano, and the suns longitude at each time and date.
20th May 20:18 UTC – 125’21’W ……………….. 10:10 UTC – 26’39’E
21st May 20:17 UTC – 125’06’W ……………….. 10:11 UTC – 26’25’E
22nd May 20:17 UTC – 125’04’W ……………….. 10:12 UTC – 26’11’E
23rd May 20:16 UTC – 124’47’W ……………….. 10:12 UTC – 26’12’E
24th May 20:16 UTC – 124’46’W ……………….. 10:13 UTC – 25’59’E
25th May 20:15 UTC – 124’29’W ……………….. 10:13 UTC – 26’00’E
26th May 20:15 UTC – 124’27’W ……………….. 10:14 UTC – 25’47’E
27th May 20:15 UTC – 124’26’W ……………….. 10:15 UTC – 25’34’E
28th May 20:14 UTC – 124’09’W ……………….. 10:15 UTC – 25’35’E
29th May 20:14 UTC – 124’07’W ……………….. 10:16 UTC – 25’22’E
30th May 20:14 UTC – 124’04’W ……………….. 10:16 UTC – 25’25’E
31st May 20:13 UTC – 123’47’W ……………….. 10:17 UTC – 25’12’EFrom 1st may to the time of this post, Mt Sakurajima volcano has erupted and exploded on 25 occasions. From the table displayed, you can see that the longitude position of the sun, with respect to sunrise / sunset on Mt Sakurajima volcano, relates primarily to Crete, Greece and the West coast US. During the month of May (to the present) there have been a total of eight 5+ events in Crete. The latest one occurred at 01:09:53 UTC 27th May on coordinates 25’38’E – 34’10’N. This location would correlate with the suns longitude positions (Solar noon) between 26th – 30th May. The towns of Ferndale and Petrolia, California, reside on longitudes 124’15’W – 124’17’W respectively. However, any potential activity on the West coast US, would be dependant on determining correlating influence i.e. is Mt Sakurajima volcano influencing other seismic activity ?
On 27th May at 07:09:10 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred in Port Vila, Vanuatu. The moon was located on longitude 130’33’E at this time… Mt Sakurajima volcano resides on longitude 130’39’E. On 16th May at 03:15:43 UTC, an M 5.9 event occurred north of Port Villa, Vanuatu. At this time, it was sunrise on coordinates 25’38’E – 34’10’N Crete Greece (as stated above)… the sun was located on longitude 130’10’E… and sunset occurred in the San Francisco Bay Area. If the sunrise / sunset table was continued, it would show that between 4th – 19th June, sunrise would continually occur on Mt Sakurajima volcano at 20:12 UTC. And the suns longitude position would only alternate between 122’53’W – 122’37’W during this period i.e. Solar Noon in the San Francisco bay Area.
Whilst compiling this analysis, I noted an unprecedented number of 2+ events had occurred in the Canary Islands, Spain on the same day. As of this post time, 5 events in total have occurred, and one event at 07:18:54 UTC 27th May, reached 3.6 Magnitude. According to EMSC records, this event was the highest mag event since 6th May 2019. This 3.6 event occurred on longitude 15’17’W, when I employed the same method as described above to this location, my model showed solar noon on this longitude, corresponded with sunrise just off the coast of Petrolia, California, between 20th May and the present.
When the M 3.6 Canary Island event occurred at 07:18:54 UTC… it was moonset in the San Francisco Bay Area, South of Santa Rosa. Considering this analysis, and my previous post relating to correlating ACE data. In “my humble opinion” a potential 4+ or greater event, may occur in the San Francisco Bay Area, within a matter of days. And my methodology suggests smaller aftershock events, fuelled by Continued correlation with Mt Sakurajima volcano through 15 days of June, is a possibility.
The data and times are real and accurate, however, a positive outcome is still speculative. But the ACE data and Canary Islands events of today, have put the icing on the cake for me… if you know what I mean !!
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 12:52 pm #8937A significant aspect change occurred in the ACE Mag data at 10:56 UTC 27th May… Phi level dropped and Bx trace changed places with By !
The ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located in the San Francisco Bay area at this time, predominantly south of Santa Rosa… and the Sun was located on longitude 15’19’E… i.e. Solar Noon (high noon) on Mt Stromboli volcano !
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 27, 2020 at 11:31 am #8935Observed…
17th May 13:49:45 UTC – M 5.0 Tonga
18th May 13:48:03 UTC – M 5.2 Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizhou, China
20th May 13:46:51 UTC – M 5.1 TongaEvents coincide with changing sunrise times south of Kodiak Island, Alaska.
Alternatively, events coincide with changing sunset times south of Madagascar.
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 25, 2020 at 11:00 pm #8930At the time of this post, Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands, has continued to erupt a further 8 times between 15th – 24th May !
20th May 02:22 UTC – 22:21 UTC
21st May 05:24 UTC – 09:20 UTC
22nd May 02:38 UTC – 18:11 UTC
24th may 02:04 UTC – 21:10 UTCIt is noticeable that a 5 day lapse in activity occurred between 15th – 20th May, and it then resumed with double events per day !
Always worth trying for a slice of the pie in this region, but if its not ready to leave the oven…you have to go hungry !. Reviewing my other accumulated data for this region, it suggests seismic science should now take priority.
Continuing this forecast for 7 days from 23:00 UTC May 25
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 25, 2020 at 10:11 pm #8929Hey Bro, glad you are okay…your a vet like me, and I didn’t want to be left “last man standing” lol
Things are getting better here, but I have not been able to find a de-contaminated hairdresser for 10 weeks. My hair is passing my shoulders, and I took to wearing a head band. I look like an old hippy, or Rambo… without the biceps of course !
I got bored and subscribed to a “Back to the Future” magazine. You get weekly model parts to build a 52 cm DeLorean time machine, with light up 1985 dash display, and illuminated flux capacitor. Taking into account mine and Counselor’s history, I was thinking of arranging joint custody after the pandemic crisis was over… 🙂
No seriously, I’m good… managing to get regular supplies, and though suffering a little loneliness at times, pretty much in good health. Keep seeing bad things in the US news, and always have you guys on my mind. Wasn’t really concerned about your absence though… just figured my shot at the big one had just improved… 🙂
Good health and luck buddy…
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 24, 2020 at 1:05 am #8915Observational note… I have logged 9 different data sets, correlating to the Island of Jamaica during the last 7 days. I am therefore including a 4.0 – 5.0 prediction within 100 radial kilometres of Ewarton, Northwest of Kingston, Jamaica… to run concurrently with this forecast. 4+ events are very rare on this Island according to EMSC records, and should any event greater than 5.0 occur… it would be within main forecast margin parameters.
Eruptions from Mt Ebeko volcano in the northern Kuril Islands, on 6th and 15th May as described in my Kamchatka forecast, correlated as sunset in Ewarton, Jamaica… and sunset on the M 4.6 and M 4.3 Cuba epicentres of 17th – 18th May respectively.
Thank you
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