Forum Replies Created
-
115 pts115 ptslesterApril 21, 2020 at 9:28 pm #8754
Excellent calculation Mark (thumbs up), all you have to do now is calculate the average time it takes EMSC and USGS to post notification, when an event has occurred 🙂 . I’m going to print this off and send it to my old evaluator. He would continually call my successful hits “chance occurrences”… he was ex USGS !.
The 5.2 Vanuatu event occurred at 00:35 UTC, 13 minutes before I submitted this forecast. On checking EMSC immediately after submission, within a few seconds of doing so, a bold black M 5.6 Vanuatu appeared. I then went to USGS and there was no sign of it… hence my following messages. USGS finally posted at 00:57 UTC.. 3 minutes before this forecast was due to start. Another ephemeral point related to Vanuatu occurred on 20th. This gives me reason that more will follow, and why I decided against “consideration”. There have already been signs of contact with Port Vile today, which is within the margin I posted.
I noted that ACE recorded solar / lunar contacts on approx 124’10’W today, which could relate to Petrolia CA or Bandon Oregon… but I don’t usually move on one day contacts… and I’m currently not seeing any data related to San Francisco !
Thanks again for the number crunching… I feel so much better for missing Vanuatu now lol
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 20, 2020 at 10:05 am #8749I will not be considering the M 5.2 Vanuatu event as a hit. It was not within the time of the forecast, and therefore goes against the purpose of the experiment. Plus, I believe I am now suffering from “cabin fever” thus saying the wrong things, and making bad decisions !
Thank you for input provided by Marco, and especially Mark… always nice to have somebody to talk too lol.
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 19, 2020 at 11:41 pm #8742I am not mocking you if that’s what you are thinking. I don’t predict 3’s because the scientific community is not interested in anything lower than 5+… and it is these people that we have to convince. Without their backing, the only people you will build trust with are your friends and family. I respect the fact that you work the smaller quakes, and logic dictates that if you find method for detecting low magnitude events, then it should work with the high mag ones too. I am an old hand at this, I may jest if I think you are going to get a few rings in your morning coffee, but I know the danger signs to watch for if I am focused in one region. I successfully predicted a 4.5 event in Los Angeles last year, 10 miles from epicentre. I even posted a warning for Angeleans to be more vigilant during a 48 hour period (sure somebody here remembers !)… I focused on this region because I have a good friend living there. It is a question of how many data sets you can correlate to a particular region, which in turn relates to the level of severity… this of course is my methodology. I have had a little success with earthquakes “and” volcanoes since you joined us. I am tracing the propagation pattern between volcanic eruptions, and correlating them with post seismic events… this should be registering that I have a certain “skill factor”, with you by now !
This forecast is for San Francisco and Mt Stromboli volcano, but at 07:00 UTC today, Mt Etna volcano erupted. Now considering I am using a map model that places Stromboli and Etna 4mm apart, I think I was pretty darn close with my determination. This event also means I have made a mental note to predict both volcanoes together next time. The point is, I determined influence from Stromboli would bypass Reykjanes and head for San Francisco. In reality, Reykjanes experienced two 4.5 events events on 16th April, and a 4.5 ,plus 5.0 on 17th April. Ironically, the 5.0 event occurred at 12:05:07 UTC, when the ATE threshold was located on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano. You also have to take into account, my determination of these occurrences was posted on 15th April, in your 6+ help thread. If I am correct in assuming that influence ended at Reykjanes, then San Francisco may be in the clear… it is only by monitoring the data during the next few days, that I will know for sure ! I was answering my friend Marco in my Hokkaido forecast, when the 6.4 Honshu event occurred. He prompted me to renew my prediction, and I declined because the data didn’t support Hokkaido… perhaps this could be seen as “building trust” with your fellow forecasters !
On 2nd June 2018, a determination of a possible seismic event occurring in Guatemala was made, it was a joint effort, and an experiment to see if differing methods could come to the same conclusion. As part of my analysis, I noted a different kind of contact in the ACE data, and commented that it was a “stand alone” signal. On 4th June, a 5.2 event occurred and of course a very satisfying result for team work. It was only a short while later that I checked volcanoes online, and discovered Fuego Volcano in Guatemala had erupted the day before. Well, I came here on the forum and began to praise myself for determining the “stand alone” signal was a pre eruption precursor, and in my own inevitable way, started jesting about our result. It was later that I saw the true reality of our success on TV, 190 people killed, 250+ missing presumed dead. I had never felt so ashamed, and it taught me a real life lesson. I may jest occasionally, but don’t think for a minute that I don’t take this subject seriously !!
I may have read you wrong here, but big or small they are all worthy pursuits. Who holds the record for making the most mistakes on this site ?… Lester 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 19, 2020 at 9:46 pm #873922.Moon – 14th April 00:39:03 UTC… On 13th – 14th April between times 17:23:19 UTC – 00:39:03 UTC, the moon reached its furthest southern lateral position for April, at 23’48’S… and remained on this latitude for the duration of this period. At the latter time of 00:39:03 UTC, the SLT threshold was located on coordinates 142’03’E – 38’54’N pre seismic M 6.4 Honshu epicentre.
This ephemeral period is included in my experiment analysis for 3 different locations… Honshu was not one of them 🙁
The Sun was located on longitude 130’02’W at the time of this event… Solar Noon in Queen Charlotte region, Canada !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 19, 2020 at 9:03 pm #8738Hey Marco, thanks for the prompt. Problem is, I have been analysing data sets today for another experiment, covering the last 10 days of ACE and S.C contacts… and I have not seen anything to suggest Hokkaido is current a front runner. Neither has there been any activity from mid-Atlantic regions to suggest correlation. I always follow the data, and in this case it is not taking me back to Hokkaido just yet. However, this being said, Check Ephemeris for 27. Sun – 20th April 17:46:51 UTC… 35. Sun – 24th April 02:20:57 UTC. I personally don’t think we will see results from these for at least a week. Plus, the M 6.4 off the East coast of Honshu, has probably absorbed all energy in this region.
Good analysis Mark, but depth to magnitude is something I never consider… always believed it is secondary to finding pre seismic location. When we are able to do that with a high degree of certainty, then depth would be the next challenge, along with timing !
Thanks guy’s…
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 18, 2020 at 10:16 pm #8731With reference to Juan De Fuca…
On 2nd Feb between times 03:28 UTC – 03:59 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase… and remained at this position for the duration of this period… T & D sun map 03:28 UTC 2nd Feb = ATE
On 1st April between times 11:46 UTC – 12:14 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase… and remained at this position for the duration of this period… T & D sun map 12:14 UTC 1st April = ATB
Forecast does have potential !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 16, 2020 at 10:29 pm #8725Mark,
Have you noted how the following quakes have occurred in the USGS listing ?
M 4.5 San Felipe, Chile 21:02:13 UTC
M 4.5 Reykjanes Ridge 21:03:26 UTC
M 5.3 Haebaru, Japan 21:22:29 UTCIf you load the T & D “Moonlight world map” from the drop down menu, and input 21:02 UTC 16th April. This relates to the San Felipe event in Valparaiso, Chile. In the map, it will show you the sunrise threshold was located on the Haebaru, Japan epicentre at this time. You can also confirm this at http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com One minute later, it shows Reykjanes waking up, as a result of the correlation with Mt Stromboli Volcano (mentioned in post above). However, main focus in this map, is the SLT threshold located straight through the San Francisco Bay Area… with 1 minute of play between San Felipe and Reykjanes.
Check this too… last event to occur in Valparaiso, Chile was a 4.6 at 03:18:39 UTC 28th March… the ATB threshold was located on Mt Stromboli volcano at this time and date !
Have you secured your crockery yet ?… LOL
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterApril 16, 2020 at 1:26 am #8715Another useful tool I use… if you search flux.phys.uit.no/Last24 … open web page “Real Time Magnetogram, 24 hour plot” … in the listings, select TROMSO in the left column. The displayed graph will show a significant aspect change occurring at 21:00 UTC 15th April. The moon was located on longitude 150’39’E New Britain P.N.G. at this time. An aspect change of this format, usually means something more substantial is coming… as per my methodology of course !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 16, 2020 at 12:59 am #8714I got a 5.3 hit in New Britain P.N.G., following the theory I posted on 12th April above. This event was triggered from Puerto Rico, specifically in the local of the M 6.4 epicentre of 7th Jan… and currently, the most seismically active location on the planet. Similarly to active volcanoes, it is a constant energy source within a few kilometres of the surface. This 5.3 New Britain occurred at 22:42:20 UTC… it was sunset in Puerto Rico at this time. This epicentre has been triggering low mag 5’s and some Very significant 6’s since its birth. Some of the more recent ones include…
22nd March 22:38:04 UTC – M 6.1 Central East pacific Rise = Sunset
30th March 09:09:05 UTC – M 5.6 Columbia-Ecuador Border region = ATB
31st March 23:52:31 UTC – M 6.5 Southern Idaho, USA = ATEAs mentioned in my post of 12th April above, New Britain forecast was derived from two ACE contacts at 20:00 UTC, 7 days apart. If I used the ACE satellite data to determine this location. Then it seems ironic that specifically designed satellites have been launched in recent years to hunt for earthquakes, when this old timer has been up there for two decades… sending back data, that I now use to hunt for pre seismic earthquakes and pre volcanic eruptions. There is also a time delay in my theory, that alternates with orbital positioning during the course of a year. I am not able to work this out myself, and needs modelling on a computer. But it is the reason I nearly always predict with 300 km radius… it is to allow for 8.3 minutes of earths rotation.
Check the Quake times above, in the T & D Day and Night Map !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 15, 2020 at 9:41 pm #8712You have the right thinking, but the wrong elements. Best way to describe this is to load http://www.timeanddate.com … select the Sun & Moon in the header … select Day and Night Map from the drop down menu … then input 02:48 UTC 15th April in the time and date boxes. What you should be looking at now is the sunset threshold in the Santa Rosa area of San Francisco… and the beginning of astronomical twilight (border between night and day) on Mt Stromboli volcano, which is just off the north coast of Sicily, with respect to the map.
If you then input 04:22 UTC, you should now see that it is sunrise on Mt Stromboli volcano, and it is the end of astronomical twilight ( day to night) in san Francisco. The solar thresholds are equally matched in two different places, on opposite sides of the world. Within the earth, electromagnetic current is being produced by the dynamo affect within the core. Volcanoes are pin holes in the earth’s surface, and an easy access point for this energy to exist. With reference to the map, if one of the solar / lunar thresholds (sunrise / sunset etc) made contact with one of these energy points (volcanoes) a positive / negative reaction occurs (like two opposing magnets, and energy is transferred from one point to another like a short circuit, or invisible lightning for instance… kind of like placing your finger on a plasma globe !
Volcanic activity is self propagating in this way, and the same can be said for earthquakes… I only use one method and it works on two different scientific doctrines. This energy transfer mostly works via parallel correlation, meaning source may be connected to the ATB threshold for example, but when it makes contact with a possible target, it has transferred to the sunset threshold. But in this case, there is a double correlation because Sunset to ATE in San Francisco (2 contacts) equally matches ATB to sunrise on Mt Stromboli volcano. This only happens twice a year as the threshold angles change due to the sun’s motion North and south relative to earth (summer / winter ). and at each occurrence, correlation only occurs for one or two days. If the correlation happens to line up with an active volcano, then you have to consider where the target could be.
Referring to the map at 02:48 UTC, you can follow the ATB threshold from Mt Stromboli volcano heading North. First tectonic boundary you would come to, would be the Reykjanes Ridge region south of Iceland. this region does have notable events, but they are infrequent compared to other locations… and it usually needs more that a volcanic correlation to awaken it (strong structure). At the pole, influence is transferred to the sunset threshold, follow this south and the next tectonic boundary is the San Andreas Fault line. After this it disappears into the Pacific, and there is nothing out here. So its last stop before hitting the water was San Francisco !
There are many earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault, therefore it is already weakened (weak structure). If my theory is correct, influence from Mt Stromboli volcano, with bypass Reykjanes ridge and go for the weakest point, and in this scenario, it may have its sights on San Francisco. If there is an outcome, it will likely be in the 3.5 – 4.5 range. If San Francisco correlated to a post seismic 6.5 – 7.5 epicentre in the same manner, then I would be concerned that something greater than 4.5 could be a possibility. But the odds of this occurring are so great, that I doubt I will be around when this happens 🙂
Would be an interesting project to find locations of significant events and volcanic eruptions, two months prior to the great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 ! This may sound like a load of gobbldy gook to most people… but I do hit the target sometimes lol
The current threat to San Francisco as per my methodology is Mt Stromboli volcano. Hope you could follow this… I can elaborate more if required.
As a side note – I am formulating a forecast for the Aleutian islands, just west of Unimak Island. If you input 13:34 UTC 15th April in the map, the ATE threshold is located on this point… but notice it is also sunrise in San Francisco. I have not seen any corelating data yet in this regard… but you can see how A “naturally” connects to B !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 15, 2020 at 1:51 pm #8707Volcano Discovery has posted a report related to “New Lava Flow” has started from Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy this morning !
Last report on Mt Stromboli was posted 31st March…
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 15, 2020 at 1:43 pm #8706Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 14:00 UTC April 15
S.C contact… The M 5.4 in Colombia at 10:59:23 UTC today, coincided with the ATE threshold being located on the coordinates above. It is a match with the SLT threshold location related to ACE 20:00 UTC contact of 5th April (Mark’s thread)… which prompted this forecast. Also at this time (5.4), the sun was located on longitude 15’09’E. Mt Stromboli volcano resides on 15’12’E, and Mt Etna volcano on 14’59’E. The suns position could be regarded as Solar noon on both these volcanoes… but more predominantly with Mt Stromboli. I work a theory that the pre volcanic process causes electromagnetic attraction. The closer a volcano becomes to its eruptive phase, the more 5+ events will begin to correlate through solar / lunar contact. I expect more 5+ events to correlate to Mt Stromboli and Mt Etna in the coming days !
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts -
|
