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115 ptslesterApril 15, 2020 at 1:17 am #8702
This may also be an interesting point which has just come to my attention. At 02:47 UTC 14th April (as mentioned above) the ATB threshold was located on Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy… 02:47 UTC being eruption time of Mt Kerinci volcano. At 00:35 UTC 15th April, the VAAC in Tokyo reported an eruption from Mt Klyuchevskoy in Kamchatka… the RLT threshold was located om Mt Stromboli at this time !
On 1st April at 11:03 UTC, it was sunset on Mt Anak Krakatau volcano, and the sun was located on longitude 15’11’E, which corresponds to solar noon (high noon) on Mt Stromboli volcano. This was the last correlation between these volcanoes before the sun changed position to correlate with Mt Etna volcano in Sicily. Two ephemeral period occurred on this day, First Quarter moon phase between times 11:46 UTC – 12:14 UTC. And the moon was also placed on its furthest Northern latitude for this month at 23’42’N… and remained at this latitude between times 05:42:03 UTC – 12:43:53 UTC. This of course encompassed the Krakatau / Stromboli correlation, and First quarter moon phase.
I once predicted an eruption of Mt Etna volcano using this strategy… because an earthquake had occurred in San Francisco 4 days earlier !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 15, 2020 at 12:43 am #8701A couple of corresponding observations… The VAAC in Darwin reported Mt Kerinci volcano in south Sumatra, erupted today at 02:47 UTC. Also of interest to me, was the M 5.0 kuril islands event, also of today at 02:46:24 UTC… this was a hit in my S.C. ALERT forecast. Both got my attention because they occurred during the same minute of time… not unheard of, but is rare for an eruption to coincide with earthquakes in the 5.0 range. It also got my attention because at 02:47 UTC, it was sunset on coordinates 122’45’W – 38’05’N San Francisco bay area… same coordinates I posted on 6th April in this thread. Other volcanic news reported today (14th) related to an explosion from Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan at 18:49 UTC… this time coincided with moonset in Anza, Southern California.
Don’t know weather this will result in actual activity occurring, but if Mt Ebeko volcano was “assumed” to have been triggered by Threshold contact with Mt Anak Krakatau volcano (as per my method). And then this proceeds to erupt 2 weeks later, I would still speculate a possible 3+ is on the way in San Francisco, and possibly advise preparation for any unsecured crockery… because my magnitude estimates have never been very reliable !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 14, 2020 at 11:51 pm #8700I was informed yesterday that a close cousin of mine, and his wife, had been admitted to hospital and tested positive for Covid-19.
Today (14th) I was informed by my neighbour, that his sister had died this morning at 5am BST. I recall mentioning her in another thread, but can’t remember which one. She was a lovely lady, who volunteered as a member of our local church support group during this crisis… and she used to bring my wife and I, home made pies during “normal” times !!
I now seem to have symptoms of IBS, possibly resulting from underlying fear for my family. My once quiet rural cottage, that used to occasion 2 or 3 people walking past my gate each week. Now occasions at least 30 a day, as people get their daily exercise because they can’t go to work. It feels so invasive and threatening, and we can’t take our dog on its usual walking routes now for fear of meeting someone. I started this thread here, because I don’t do Facebook or Twitter etc. And though I see what is happening in the TV news, it is not the same as getting that personal opinion from others that might feel the same as I do. So I again express my gratitude to Fred for passing on a little US insight, and may I add, an interesting theory.
I have also been feel that earthquake prediction is getting more difficult for me to make the right determinations. Never got into Facebook or Twitter, because my focus has always been numbers and calculations related to tracking down pre seismic locations. But under the current circumstances I find myself in, it is extremely difficult to stay focused. However, I must mention that our new member “Canyonrat” (Mark) actually proposed an interesting challenge, that I don’t recall happening on the forecast forum before. And this was to combine our efforts, no matter what method was used, to determine the course of seismic activity in California and inland western US. This has in turn given me something to watch for each day, and thought Mark and I have differing methods (like chalk and cheese 🙂 ) it gave me an incentive to focus again… bar receiving unwelcome news as stated above. So I am also grateful to Mark for his innovative idea…Doh ! getting soft in my old age !
Stay safe every one, and don’t take chances… you can’t fool around with this bug !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 13, 2020 at 4:12 pm #8691Hi Fred, and thank you for your contribution to this thread… it is really appreciated. Unfortunately, I have been informed today that covid-19 has now become a significant issue within my own family. And therefore regrettably have to pull out of the action for a while. But as is humorously customary with many of my posts, I leave you with this advice “Don’t visit Oaxaca, Mexico for the next 18 days”… 🙂
Lester
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 12, 2020 at 10:54 pm #8688Isn’t it amazing that during this last week, there have been four forecasters including myself, using different methods, posting factual data and strategic speculation… and we still missed a 5.2 in Bodie, California !. Well actually, that’s not entirely true is it !… Tayrance was there. I watched “Band of Brothers” on TV… thought it was a true story !!
Good to see you here Fred, the more coverage we get in Western US regions, greater the chance that we might “officially” hit something.
Since my post of 7th April, in this thread that Mark has initiated. There have been 5+ events in Mindanao, Philippines, New Britain P.N.G. and two 4.5’s in Hokkaido. Though I think Hokkaido is being slow off the mark, and may produce a 5+ event in the next few days. Things appear to be running true to form, but there is still no hint of activity in the region of Ventura, California. However, I did note a significant S.C. contact today (12th) at 06:57:47 UTC. It was Moonrise on the 101 Ventura freeway on longitude 119’24’W at this time… when the M 6.1 occurred this morning (my time) North of Amsterdam Island, Indian Ocean !. I don’t use stress transfer in my method, but considering all the inland activity that has occurred recently. I believe we are going to start seeing felt events in Los Angeles this coming week, because it shares the same field line as Bodie, CA. And if this occurs, focus will then be on costal regions like Ventura !.
I also bring attention here to the fact that ACE has recorded another “significant” aspect change again, at exactly 20:00 UTC today. At this time, the sun was located on longitude 119’51’W. I say again because my post of 6th April in this thread, relates to a similarly significant contact at 20:00 UTC on this day… hence the call on Ventura. However, I compared solar / lunar thresholds on my model, related to these stated dates. And the only “usual suspect” location I mentioned on 7th April, that has not deviated from the picture, is New Britain P.N.G. A sunrise time of 20:00 UTC remains consistent between dates 5th – 14th April on coordinates 150’26’E – 6’34’S off coast of Gasmata, New Britain P.N.G. No need to guess where I am going when I sign off here !! … two 5+ events in this region today, means it has potential for a 6+. The actual aspect change at 20:00 UTC today was first instigated by a drop in Phi level at 19:54 UTC. This placed the sun on longitude 118’21’W, could this be Los Angeles I wonder… with respect to my method of course !.
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterApril 11, 2020 at 5:32 pm #8680Oh ! you mean that 7.1 in Ridgecrest… he reminisces, as he blows on his finger nails, before rubbing them on his chest lol
I mentioned in your last forecast, you were know for having a habit of being a month premature with your forecasts… good to see you have not made a liar out of me !.
Always be good to see you more Counselor, especially as must of us are in lockdown… besides, got nobody else to practice my dry humour on 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 11:26 pm #8667The VAAC in Darwin has reported a “Violent Eruption” Occurring from Mt Anak Krakatau Volcano in the Sunda Strait, Indonesia on 10th April.
Therefore, is it feasible that correlation with Mt Anak Krakatau volcano, triggered the 5th April Anza, California swarm ?… and how would this be achieved ?
If the Mt Merapi volcano eruption of earlier this day, correlated to Oaxaca, Mexico… what are the implications for Oaxaca and Crete, now that Anak Krakatau has erupted ?
The stakes have just got higher in this seismic poker game !
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 10:51 pm #8666Hold the phone !… recent report is now stating “Violent Eruption” of Krakatau volcano. And the VAAC Darwin are suggesting this eruption could be the strongest since the the volcano collapse and resulting fatal tsunami of 22nd December 2018
Delusional, am I ?
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 10:05 pm #8664An M 5.9 event occurred today (10th) in the Batan Islands Region, Philippines at 16:44:55 UTC. The ATB threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre of 25th March (and Mt Ebeko Volcano !). The sun was located on longitude 70’56’W… possible repercussions offshore Antofagasta or Atacama, Chile. The moon was located on longitude 145’28’E… Kushiro Canyon, Hokkaido. And the sunset threshold bordered on 25’40’E Crete, Greece !
No points for guessing post seismic trigger this time… lol
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 7:41 pm #8658An M 5.1 occurred in Mindanao, Philippines at 18:45:49 UTC. The ATB threshold (Astronomical Twilight Begins) was located on 150’E New Britain P.N.G. at this time. So things are looking up for Ventura, CA, because events are happening within the predicted family circle… timing depends on weather Ventura is a brother or a cousin !!
for Marco… moon was located on longitude 116’23’E at the time of this event… Lombok Island !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 6:15 pm #8657On Tuesday evening (7th, my time) why wife had to wait in an online que for 1 hour 45 minutes, to access our local supermarket listings… there were 48,600 people waiting before her. Half way through her shopping, the site crashed. When it was eventually running again 2 hours later, she attempted to start again, but became disheartened when the que time stated 2 hours 26 minutes waiting time… and gave up her attempt.
Amongst some of my less “irritating” traits, I like to help people in other ways. I buy and sometimes make solar powered gadgets for an orphanage in Uganda… and post them at my own expense. My wife used to send a little money, but you can’t trust human nature in others, to do the right thing… especially in countries like Uganda. So I came up with a compromise, the kids there now have a few lights, bug killers and a phone charger for the boss… and this also keeps my wife happy.
Coming back to my coffeeless web crash. Several years ago, I happened upon a very talented Nigerian teenage from Benin City. Living on his own, and not treated well by his own family… because he was slightly autistic. But he is an absolute genius at drawing and art, and though I don’t have loads of money, I have been commissioning him to do paid work for me… to make him feel like someone, and not just a charity case. Not an art expert myself, but you know when something is pleasing to the eye. And I believe if you could exchange his art skill for prediction… I think he would put the rest of us out of business lol. Being passionately impressed, I decided to sponsor this young man in autumn last year (fall), and paid for him to return to school. Eventually sitting exams, and qualify for his WAEC certificate… so he could enrol at art college in Lagos. Exams were to be held this May, but unfortunately like the rest of us… everything is closed and in lockdown in Nigeria. However, fortunately for him, I had the foresight to see what might be coming his way… after monitoring events in Italy, Spain and now us in the UK and USA. So, went against my own principles and sent him the equivalent of $500 to buy non perishable goods to last 4 months, and extra fuel and gas for his generator and stove. Told him to miss school that day (everything still normal then) and go to the market as many times as the money requires to buy supplies. He did so, and sent snaps of many sacks of beans, rice, potatoes etc. Two weeks later, first virus case was confirmed in Nigeria, people started panic buying… and their governments response was to shut all banks, so they couldn’t get money to buy food !! I made this gesture because Nigeria is a “developing” county, but government and many senior officials are corrupt, and they suffer a lot of lawlessness. I even bought the generator for him so he had light to draw with at night. Electricity supply is poorly maintained, switched off during rainy days, and during dry days only available 2-3 hours per day.
The reason I mentioned the plight of my young friend in Nigeria, is because I expected he would struggle due to the reasons stated. I on the other hand, live in a “developed” country. I made no such provision for my wife and myself because we are British, and the British are known throughout the world, as having that “Dunkirk Spirit” during times of crisis, and we all pull together… well, fool on me. We go to war with Argentina over the Falkland Islands, and everybody is fully supporting each other and our leaders decision to do so. Two Gulf wars, and we are there offering help and support to our US buddies. Same can be said for 9/11 and the London bombings. Then a bug hits town… and its everyone for themselves. We are fortunate that we have 24/7 electricity… so at least we can see what we are doing whilst we starve !!
To be honest, some times feel ashamed to be British, after seeing how some people are responding to this crisis. Nurses not able to buy food after finishing their shift… because shelves are stripped bare etc. No PPE wear because public panic buying emptied the warehouses. There are appeals in our local social medias from health centres and hospitals, for donations of PPE (Personal Protective Equipment). Not to worried for my own circumstances just yet, keep a few chickens so always got fresh eggs, and still got winter stocks left in case of a snow over… but I do miss my coffee lol.
Stay safe, check the elders where you live, make sure they have food… and coffee 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterApril 10, 2020 at 9:07 am #8655The VAAC in Darwin has reported a “High Level Eruption” occurring at 02:35 UTC 10th April, from Mt Merapi volcano in central Java, Indonesia.
Eruption coincided with moonrise on my Oaxaca forecast coordinates… interesting !
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 8, 2020 at 9:41 pm #8645Please continue if you have anything for us today Mark ? … don’t let my posts impede anyone from staying the course !
Significant ACE aspect change from 20:06 UTC to 20:50 UTC 8th April. At 20:06 UTC, the ATB threshold was located on Yamdena Island, Banda Sea region (good for me !), and the Sun was located on longitude 121’05’W !. At 20:50 UTC, it was moonset in both Kashiro, Hokkaido and 150’E New Britain P.N.G. … I believe Tayrence has P.N.G. covered. Comparing previous posts above, now would be a good time for Pi_Seas to move on Japan again !!
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