Forum Replies Created
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115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 25, 2019 at 9:28 pm #6128
On Sunday (23rd) my equipment suggested something “serious” was about to occur, that’s why I scrambled my Taiwan and Bougainville predictions (M 7.3 Banda Sea 24th). The same “suggestion” has appeared again this afternoon (my time)… no guarantees, but it would be a shame to miss out if I have read this correctly again !!
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJune 6, 2019 at 8:17 am #6072Confucius says: “Man with few friends never forgets birth dates” 🙂
On 6th May between times 04:05:56 UTC – 04:12:50 UTC, the sun and moon shared the same lateral coordinate of 16’27’N during this period. If you remember the drill, input the latter time in the “sun map”. I believe “coffee rings” being experienced in Los Angeles and the Channel Islands region, originate from Indonesia on this date (Solar Noon on Lombok Island !).
Good talking too you again Counselor… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 21, 2019 at 12:46 pm #6022I have decided to run with this forecast again, for 10 days from 15:00 UTC May 21
Note – I would also like to pass on 1st birthday congratulations, to a little guy I know in Los Angeles (through correspondents here), and to wish him many happy returns, and hope he has a great day. I would join him with a cup of my small “vintage” stock of slumptown dark roast coffee… but I think he may be a little young for coffee 🙂 .
Thank you
“Doc”
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 15, 2019 at 4:32 pm #6017Hi Becca… I for one would like to pass on my congrats to you for this marvellous effort. I can relate to you in this respect because I know what it is like to see that big red spot on the map, or bold red in the listings… natural reaction would be to shake your fists and shout “YES” without knowing you have done this. However, I have not had opportunity to do this for a while, so I have to remind myself what it feels like by looking at myself doing it in an old picture… 🙂 .
I have noted how close you have come to several significant events since you joined the group, so it indicates that you do have methodology with your forecasts. As Ben stated above though, it is unfortunate in this case that you missed on technicalities, but you have to remember with each “high and low” you experience, you are learning a little more with each occasion. This will inevitably contribute towards improving your method, and therefore help to develop your skill factor (you will learn what is relevant, and what is not).
There are two different aspects to prediction, the science aspect and the entertainment aspect, and this site does give you the option to try both if desired. I have to admit I came here from the science scene, complete with my checker-ed jacket and bow tie. But after the 2 plus years I have been here, I now sport a T shirt with palm trees and wear a base ball hat :). My bow tie attitude at the start tended to place me in positions out side my comfort zone. Or for lack of better scientific terminology “put my foot in it”. But I have mellowed or “chilled” as they say, yet I still like to peruse the scientific route. And this is one reason why I was going for 5+ events for a couple of months. I believe I have methodology, but it is a bit like trying to do a rubrics cube… I turn one side and give it a little time (experiment) to see if I have lined up any of the colours correctly.
The entertainment aspect is interesting, but it is mostly a game of “chance” like any competition. I know not what your level of seismic knowledge relates to, but you can appreciate that with each occasion you are formulating your forecasts, you are learning something more about earthquakes. My wife posts submissions to magazine competitions, and obviously she is trying to win the advertised prize. But while she is doing this, she is sourcing answers on the internet and therefore gaining “general” knowledge.
As mentioned, you have on several occasions missed significant events by only a short distance, or due to expired time periods. If the ultimate goal is to win the prize in any competitive environment. Then in this case may I suggest that forecasts of 6.5 – 7.5 with a 300 km margin of error, which comply with the required area of competition stipulations (ring of fire etc) would greatly increase the odds in your favour. From a scientific point of view, if your selected region experienced an M 6.3 for example,it would be deemed as a negative result in respect of your forecast. But there are people here like myself who would look on this as significant, because it signifies that you poses a level of skill (skill factor) that you employed in your related forecast determinations. The occurrence of earthquakes can be related to several different pre-seismic factors, meaning locating an earthquake before it happens is the easiest part of the process. The hard parts are determining when it is going to happen, and what magnitude it is going to attain. These aspects are deemed as “chance” which still relates to the level of seismic science we embrace today… and to the competitive aspect of the subject.
This can be a lonely pursuit that we are engaged in… but I have had the privilege of my efforts for a positive result, being aired on Ben’s Daily show. So you can appreciate that you can imagine others around the world have been informed of your achievement… and therefore a good feeling. However,the reality is that unless you live in an area of like minded people who can appreciate what you have achieved, the euphoria does not go beyond your dwelling. So when something like your achievement here occurs, you can only share “what was nearly” with your computer, cup of coffee and your cat if you have one… therefore lonely !. In my opinion you are good at this, and as significant as this miss was, do not let it bring you down. I just wanted you to know that along with your alleged cat… someone a few thousand miles away has noticed too !.
Hope I did not trip over my bow tie again here with this message… it was not my intention. I will finish now because I am debating weather to try the blue colour on my rubrics cube next, or go to the local store and buy some Caribbean music to go with my T shirt 🙂
Well done !
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