Forum Replies Created
-
115 ptslesterFebruary 4, 2018 at 9:27 pm #3829
The T sequence for Hsinchu county, Taiwan on 23rd January (day of relevance !)
Dawn 21:19 UTC = Sunrise on 156.230’E – 49.790’N Kamchatka Ridge
Sunset 09:32 UTC = Dusk on 177.216’E – 40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand
(At 09:31:44 UTC on this day, a 7.9 occurred in the Gulf of Alaska !)
Dusk 10:52 UTC = Dawn on 7.6 North of Honduras epicentre 10/1… Dusk on 138.966’E – 21.983’S Queensland, Australia ( this is the location occupied by the sun during the 7.6 North of Honduras eventThis location was determined by combination… and verified using active ACE contacts !
…………………………………………………………………………..
Here’s another little trick… it requires the Adriatic sun dot at 12:53 UTC 3rd Feb, and today’s Taiwan sun dot at 13:57 UTC…At 19:22 UTC minus 8 minutes light speed = 19:14 UTC, a Class B 6.3 flux event occurred… input 19:14 UTC in the T&D map, it is Sunset on the Adriatic sun dot and Dawn on 156.230’E – 49.790’N Kamchatka Ridge.
At 20:24 UTC minus 8 minutes light speed = 20:16 UTC, a Class C 1.1 flux event occurred… input this time in the map, it is now Sunset on the Taiwan sun dot, and the sun is on longitude 120.502’W (Solar Noon on Parkfield, California !!)… seems to work like an “Earth Clock” doesn’t it ?.
……………………………………………………………………………
A test in Tonga…At 15:32 UTC and 16:10 UTC today, two significant aspect changes occurred in the ACE MAG data. The first contact at 15:32 UTC, I related to the moon being on longitude 176.710’W… it was also Sunrise at this time on the 5.8 Off Coast of Northern California epicentre 25/1 The second contact at 16:10 UTC, related to Dawn on 176.710’W – 22.330’S Pelorus Reef, South of Tonga. The T sequence for this location shows Sunset at 06:32 UTC = Sunset on 156.230’E – 49.790’N Kamchatka Ridge… “AND” it is Sunrise on the Adriatic sun dot !
I conclude… a location determined by combination !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 4, 2018 at 3:38 pm #3824Here’s a neat trick using EMSC response data and a T&D map… feel free to try this !
3rd Feb 12:53:10 UTC – M 4.5 Adriatic Sea (171 felt responses)
Geocentric position of the sun = 9.833’W – 16.433’S… input 12:53 UTC in the map and place a dot in the centre of the sun image.
Input 06:32 UTC, and it is Sunrise on the sun Dot… it is also Sunset on 156.230’E – 49.790’N Kamchatka Ridge.
Input 19:16 UTC, and it is now Sunset on the sun dot… Sunset on the 5.6 Ascension Island epicentre 23/1… Sunset on the 6.5 Southwest of Africa epicentre 28/1… and Dawn on Kamchatka Ridge on the co-ordinates stated.4th Feb 06:57:38 UTC – M 3.2 San Juan Islands Region, Washington (111 felt responses)
Geocentric position of the sun = 79.066’E – 16.216’S… input 06:57 UTC in the map and place a dot in the centre of the sun image.
Now input 3rd Feb 23:16 UTC, it is Dawn on the sun dot… Dawn on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean (mentioned above !)… and Dawn on 91.280’E – 22.620’N Urirchar, Bangladesh.
Input 4th Feb 00:32 UTC, and it is Sunrise on the Central Indian Ocean, and Urirchar, Bangladesh locations on the co-ordinates stated.
(I posted a forecast for this location in Bangladesh at 01:08 UTC today… 5 hours 50 minutes before this 3.2 event occurred !)Moving forward to 9th Feb at 01:47:10 UTC, the geocentric position of the moon will be 79.066’E – 16.433’S (it is on the sun dot)… this is the longitude occupied by the sun during the 3.2 San Juan event… and the latitude occupied by the sun during the 4.5 Adriatic event.
The longitude of the sun at this time will be 156.749’E… it is in fact Solar Noon on 156.230’E – 49.790’N Kamchatka Ridge !!
(also at this time, it will be Dawn on 40.001’E – 19.250’S Off Coast of Mozambique… this is the location the sun occupied during the 7.9 Gulf of Alaska event 23/1)
……………………………………………………………………………………..
Input 4th Feb 13:23 UTC, it is Sunset on the San Juan sun dot… this is the time a 5.3 / 5.4 occurred Northeast of Nord, Greenland !
……………………………………………………………………………………..
Input 4th Feb 13:57 UTC, and place a dot in the centre of the sun image.
Now input 21:37 UTC, and it is Dusk on the sun dot… and Sunset on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro
At 13:56:41 UTC today, a 6.1 event occurred NNE of Hualian, Taiwan !!
………………………………………………………………………………………At 12:45:33 UTC, a 3.4 event occurred in Central Italy (22 felt responses), at this time it was Sunset on the 6.1 Hindu Kush epicentre 31/1… Dusk on the 6.0 Myanmar epicentre 11/1… and Dawn on the 6.3 Gulf of California epicentre 19/1
Nobody pays much attention to the little quakes… probably the reason why we have not found an answer to predicting the big ones !!!
More later…
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterFebruary 2, 2018 at 6:01 pm #3813Here are some correlations related to today’s EMSC event responses, and current ACE Mag data…
07:03:13 UTC – M 2.3 Fry of Macedonia (20 responses) = Solar Noon on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean… Lunar terminator is located on the 2.3 epicentre !
09:20:44 UTC – 3.7 Eastern Kazakhstan (208 responses) = Dusk on 175.233’E – 39.370’S Tohunga Junction, North Island, New Zealand… Lunar terminator on 6.0 Pacific-Antarctic Ridge epicentre !
14:23:52 UTC – M 2.4 Fry of Macedonia (88 responses) = longitude of the moon on 175.233’E (New Zealand !)… Sunset on 60.566’E – 7.849’S Seychelles (these are the co-ordinates the moon occupied during the 7.6 North of Honduras event 10/1)
15:09 UTC – Significant contact in MAG Phi data = Solar Noon on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro… Lunar terminator on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean.
15:34 UTC – Significant contact and aspect change in MAG data = Dusk on 60.566’E – 7.849’S Seychelles… Dawn on 177.216’E – 40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand
16:43 UTC – Break in MAG data = Lunar terminator on 120.670’W – 36.140’N Parkfield, California !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterFebruary 2, 2018 at 3:31 pm #3811Here is the T sequence for Parkfield, California for 31st January ( date the forecast was reactivated)
Dawn 13:37 UTC = Sunset on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean (mentioned above)
Sunrise 15:05 UTC = Solar Noon on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro (mentioned above)
Sunset 01:30 UTC = Sun on longitude 160.849’E… 12 hours later at 13:29:50 UTC, the moon was on longitude 160.833’E, this was the official time of lunar eclipse totality !
Dusk 02:57 UTC = Solar Noon on 138.966’E – 21.983’S Queensland, Australia… this was the solar Noon longitude occupied by the sun at 02:51:32 UTC 10/1 during the 7.6 North Of Honduras event.
Solar Noon 20:17 UTC = Sunrise on 5.8 Eastern New Guinea epicentre 31/1
…………………………………………………………………………………………………
6.0 Pacific-Antarctic Ridge 11:37:53 UTC 2/2The T sequence shows Sunrise at 14:56 UTC, also at this time it is Dusk on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean !!… and Sunrise on 118.976’W – 35.284’N Bakersfield, California
I posted here because the relevant data to the sequences above is here… Anybody “Not” interested in following these correlations, please continue in “discussion thread 4”
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 31, 2018 at 5:23 pm #3800Chris… there have been two significant contacts in the Mag Phi data at 09:40 UTC and 15:30 UTC, they constitute opposite ends of a single block structure. I have combined 09:40 UTC with other accumulated data, and determined this to be Taiwan… 15:30 UTC is a perfect match for Dawn on Madden Canyon, North Island NZ. However, these two times also combine as Dusk / Dawn on 174.750’E – 42.395’S 85’km’s East of Kaikoura, Off the coast of South Island, NZ (Northeast of Christchurch).
The T sequence shows this location shares 07:46 UTC Sunset time with the 6.2 Hokkaido epicentre 24/1. Solar Noon here at 00:35 UTC, coincides with Sunrise on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean… the same sun location that relates to the 6.1 Hindu Kush event above !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 31, 2018 at 12:32 pm #3796M 6.1 Hindu Kush Region, Afghanistan at 07:06:59 UTC…
At this time, it was Solar Noon on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean… this is the spot occupied by the sun during the 5+ Iran-Iraq swarm, mentioned yesterday in the Bakersfield scenario. Also at this time, it was Dawn on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro… also mentioned several times this week !
The T sequence shows Dawn on the 6.1 epicentre as 00:51 UTC, it is Dusk at this time on the 7.1 Peru epicentre 14/1. Dusk occurs at 14:10 UTC, it is Sunrise at this time on the 6.3 Gulf of California epicentre 19/1… this seems to explain my 14:10 UTC moon contact in the post above. The moon was on the Philippines, and it was Dusk here !!. Solar Noon occurred at 07:31 UTC, it is Sunset at this time on 177.216’E – 40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand.
The Hindu Kush event occurred within 110 km’s of Bill & Ted’s Tajikistan forecast posted last month… somewhere “they” had been before 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 30, 2018 at 4:31 pm #3786They are also referred to as dwarf or minor planets, but technically speaking you are correct, they are asteroids… I guess it depends which context was used !
Planetary alignments are not really my thing… but the time involved in compiling this information, is something “I can” appreciate…
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 30, 2018 at 3:18 pm #3784Chris… I agree, multiple alerts in the same regions means we either share the glory or disappointment together. You have a rep for getting things right lately… that’s why I’m in the Philippines 🙂
Actually, I have taken into account my strange Tromso contact occurred at 21:03 UTC 27/1… and the Satellite data stopped yesterday at 21:03 UTC. When I input these times in the map, the Dawn threshold pivots on Sultana Shoals, Sulu Sea. The moon contact at 14:10 UTC I reported yesterday, well I hadn’t noticed but it was also Sunrise at this time on the 6.3 Gulf of California epicentre 19/1.
I am speculating that this full moon will have a strong seismic connection, that’s why I posted the Bakersfield scenario. I’m not 100% on Bakersfield, but if a total solar eclipse can produce a bow wave, I believe similar effects from the total lunar eclipse tomorrow may result in seismic activity… and it will probable be somewhere “we” have already been 🙂
The Kuril location I mentioned to you on the 25th, only produced a 4.9… I think we both saved face on this one !
More later…
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 10:56 pm #3775There is a break in ACE data feeds at 21:03 UTC, it is a match for the Dawn threshold from the Sulu Sea region through to the Philippine trench. A strong contact at 14:10 UTC, I linked it to the moon on longitude 121.540’E… a spontaneous decision !
Hope you don’t mind some company ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 7:02 pm #3772BTW – Sunset on Bakersfield occurs at 01:23 UTC on 31st Jan, longitude of the sun at this time is 162.598’E = Solar Noon on the 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1 !. When totality occurs at 13:30 UTC, the moon is on 160.783’E… this will be “8 minutes” after it has past the 5.9 event longitude!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 29, 2018 at 6:25 pm #3771Hey Chris,
I have been constructing a new model based on the geocentric position of the sun, at the time of 5.5+ events occurring… I am far from finishing it, but I have found a couple of interesting points along the way…
If you recall, a 5.9 occurred near the coast of Nicaragua on 16th Jan at 15:03:53 UTC. First point of interest for you, it was Dawn at this time on 177.216’E -40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand !. Second point; also at this time,it was Dusk on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean. These are the co-ordinates the sun occupied when a 5.5 occurred on the Iran-Iraq Border at 06:59:30 UTC on 11th Jan… you may recall this was a swarm of six 5+ events in one hour, the 5.5 was the first to occur. Further to this, the sun was on longitude 43.516’W. This is the same Solar Noon longitude on Rio de Janeiro that was occupied by the sun during the 5.9 South of Fiji event on 2nd Jan… and it is mentioned above in relation to the 5.7 Panama event.
I was checking positions related to the up coming total lunar eclipse on 31st Jan, when I found a correlation with the Nicaragua event, and a speculative pre-seismic location. At 15:04 UTC on 16th Jan (Nicaragua!), I noted the map shows Sunrise in the Santa Barbara / Bakersfield region. The total lunar eclipse occurs at 13:29:50 UTC on 31st Jan, when I input this time in the solar map, and combine it with the Nicaragua event time… it calculates as Dawn / Sunrise on 118.976’W – 35.284’N Bakersfield, California. When you input totality time in the moon map, the lunar terminator is on 77.083’E – 21.799’S Central Indian Ocean (as stated above !!).
As I said, I’m just playing around with the numbers here… Bakersfield is just a combo for the present!
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 28, 2018 at 10:49 pm #3761Hi Ben,
I once posted a prediction to a national news paper, claiming a 6+ would occur in Honshu,Japan in the next 7 days. A 6.2 occurred within 48 hours of my post, later, the paper thanked me for my contribution, and said they would file my email for future reference… in other words, it was not news worth because nobody died. What struck me most was that nobody asked how I came to determine this event would occur in the first place. You have been there and know what it is like… my comments were not aimed at you or Quake Watch, but at society in general. I like it here, but this subject sometimes has you on a short fuse… its good to know you have your “eyes open” on me 🙂
Hey Chris… I just checked out Bill & Ted the movie… it cheered me up because I discovered “Ted” is the good looking one 🙂
I ran a T sequence on Cook Strait, New Zealand as a centre point, but didn’t find anything of significant interest. However, I had recently checked the 6.5 Southwest of Africa, and noted the sun was in the longitude range of New Zealand… on returning to NZ I found the following…
Dawn on the 6.5 Southwest of Africa occurred at 00:24 UTC, at this time it is Solar Noon on 177.216’E (New Zealand) and Sunrise on the 5.5 Myanmar epicentre 7/1. I cross referenced this with Solar Solar Noon at 17:14 UTC on the 7.1 Southern Peru epicentre 14/1, and got a Sunset location on 177.216’E – 40.534’S Madden Canyon, Off East Coast of North Island, New Zealand. When I checked the 07:33 UTC Sunset time for these co-ordinates, I found it is also Sunset on the 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1, and Dusk on the 6.2 Nikol’Skoye epicentre 25/1
I’m glad you chose this location and not me… sounds a bit boring for my liking 🙂
How is your boy doing ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 28, 2018 at 12:46 pm #3757Chris… you are hitting 5’s in Nikol’Skoye and Mindanao like a magician pulls a rabbit from a hat… but I can understand where you are coming from. I have hit some resent 5’s because of spontaneous decisions, but the locations I chose from many days of compiling data are falling short of expectations. After the Tromso contact yesterday, I have decided to focus more on the phenomena of post seismic interactions, and less on forecasting. It is difficult to do both because each requires a lot of effort, and I think my little party tricks here are “not” convincing anyone !
Roll up..Roll up, What triggered the 5.7 in Panama yesterday at 21:45 UTC ?… at 21:45 UTC, it was Sunrise on the 6.2 Hokkaido epicentre, Dawn on the 6.0 Java epicentre, and Sunset on 43.299’W – 22.883’S Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The later is the location the sun occupied when the 5.9 event occurred South of Fiji on 2nd January… Panama was triggered by post seismic connection !!. Sometimes I have to question weather I still retain all my marbles, I see the answer in this scenario on the screen in front of me, and have trouble understanding why others do not!… why these combinations work, is what I need to try and figure out.
Sometimes, a change of pace can be the right decision to make!
Where “Bill” goes… “Ted” will follow 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts -
|
