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115 ptslesterJanuary 27, 2018 at 12:04 pm #3740
Sure thing Chris… I mentioned last year that this subject can grip you like a video game, is this how it is starting to feel ?
Logic dictates, the more data sets you use, the more accurate your detection method becomes… but it is at the expense of investing more time !
I have started using the lunar terminator more than usual in my trigger analysis (thanks to you!)… you find some interesting correlations.
09:32 UTC 23/1 M 7.9 Gulf of Alaska… input this in the map and dot the sun. Input the time of the 6.3 New Guinea event in the “moon” map, and the lunar terminator is on the sun dot !
The New Guinea event also shares the same Dusk threshold as my Challenger Deep, West of Guam Forecast… I missed my stop again 🙁
The next sun / moon / night equation occurs today at 21:01 UTC… no forecast this time, so let us see if anything happens !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 25, 2018 at 5:49 pm #3723M 5.8 West of Ferndale, CA … placing the odds aside, a least we are close to the action 🙂
I worked a moon / Sunrise combo in ACE data yesterday, it landed on 148.610’E – 45.410’N Eturup Etorofu Island, Kuril Islands Region.
I’m tired of missing on magnitude, so if you see anything related to this location, go for it… trust me its there !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 25, 2018 at 11:27 am #3712M 6.2 Nikol’Skoye at 02:10:34 UTC – Sunset on the 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre occurred today at 02:10 UTC. The longitude of the moon at the time the 6.2 occurred was 120.550’W (Parkfield!).
M 4.0 Northeast of Trabuco Canyon, California at 10:09:56 UTC – The longitude of the sun at this time was 30.600’E, the opposite longitude is 149.400’W = opposite Solar Noon on 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre !!
I missed Triple Junction on magnitude… what are the odds that we will miss Parkfield ?
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2018 at 12:54 pm #3704Hey Chris,
I’m not to sure about my Canada forecast producing a result, it was based on multiple 22:16 UTC events which now appear to be man made explosions !…a few extra sticks of dynamite on the next attempt and who knows 🙂
Don’t worry about responding, if I find anything of interest, I’ll post to keep the community informed… here’s a little to be going on with…
M 6.2 Hokkaido,Japan at 10:51:22 UTC – Dawn on 83.59’W – 17.40’N North of Honduras (7.6 epicentre 10/1 ) = 10:51 UTC 24/1 … Sunset on 109.500’E – 1.500’N = 10:51 UTC 24/1 (ref; post above !),,, triggered by combination!
The T sequence shows Dawn on the 6.2 epicentre occurred at 20:15 UTC, it is “still” solar Noon at this time on Parkfield, California (ref post above 22nd Jan 6:53pm)
More later…
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 24, 2018 at 12:29 am #3700Chris… you know that trigger point I told you to read on in the Indian Ocean (ref; post of 17th Jan,10:02 pm “Here is an ACE example”) well.. it has just triggered another earthquake !. The point I refer to is the central Indian Ocean Ridge, which I have just forecast. Dawn here occurred at 23:09 UTC today… the Ascension Island quake occurred at 23:09:09 UTC !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 11:36 pm #3698Chris… I have formulated a combination that connects the 16:10 UTC ACE signals with the 7.9 Alaska event… the target focus of this combo “is” Italy. Try the following times and dates with T&D, it will make it easier to follow…
23rd Jan 09:31:44 UTC – M 7.9 Gulf of Alaska … the longitude of the moon at this time is 109.500’E
23rd Jan 16:10 UTC – Significant contacts in ACE data … longitude of the moon on 13.005’E + Sunset combo = 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice, Central Italy… Solar Noon on 59.520’W (Falklands!)
24th Jan 04:54 UTC – longitude of the sun at this time is 109.500’E (moons position at 7.6 Alaska event time)… it is Dawn on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice (draw a line through Italy)… it is also Dawn on 59.520’W – 52.250’S North Arm, Falkland Islands.
24th Jan 10:19 UTC – longitude of the moon is 109.500’E… it is Sunrise on 69.61’W – 18.90’S Tarapace, Chile (6.3 epicentre, 21/1)… referring to the moon map for this time shows the lunar terminator on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice
24th Jan 23:48 UTC – The geocentric position of the moon is 86.010’W – 8.484’N, this places you off the coast of Costa Rica. Sunset for these stated co-ordinates occurs at 23:48 UTC… the moon is “central” to the Sunset threshold. The suns geocentric position at this time is 173.950’W – 19.001’S North of Tonga. If you check the moon map for this time, it shows the sun is “central” to the lunar terminator threshold. At this time of Solar / Lunar equilibrium… look where the lunar terminator is in relation to Italy !!
The T sequence for Castel San Felice shows Solar Noon occurring here between 22nd -25th Jan at 11:21 UTC… it is Sunset for these same three days on 105.918’E – 7.196’S Western Java (6.0 epicentre 23/1).
5.6 Ascension Region 23:22 UTC…my Ascension Island forecast expired 2 days ago 🙁 did you get this one ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 7:08 pm #3696That is very sound advice and I thank you for it… I find it takes a lot of time and effort to do the math and formulate combo’s, but as you say watching the pressure data may be what’s missing.
Something has just occurred in the Ace data, that may give us an opportunity to combine our thoughts and efforts into achieving a positive result. The Mag data (particularly in Phi) is showing a significant contact at 16:10 UTC… this is the time after I have deducted 8 minutes. The SWEPAM plasma data is showing the same contact, but also shows an extreme drop in density. If you check the T&D map, the first thing I should tell you is that it is Sunset “to the minute” on 35.060’E – 9.520’S Lupembe, Southern Tanzania (my dashing forecast 🙂 ). Now without meaning to sound like a stuck record, I have a habit of being on the right track but missing the right stop!. Assuming I am wrong about Tanzania, this exact time on the map holds the key to an alternate pre-seismic location. I have checked the terminator thresholds against all resent 5.5+ up to the 7.9 Alaska event, and found no contacts.
Checking the usual subjects shows Dawn in the Fiji region, and Dawn on Kodiak Island wich may suggest a possible aftershock. Sunset is on Vancouver Island and the central Pacific-Antarctic Ridge region. Sunset is over Italy and Sicily, and from Tazmania it comes off the coast of Mozambique. Dusk is on central Turkey, Gulf of Aden and north of Mauritius ( just South of my forecast there). It is Solar Noon in Trinidad and Tobago, and the Falkland Islands… the opposite Solar longitude is on West Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, through the Manila Trench and Southern Taiwan.
I can see one combo in this map; the moon is on longitude 13.005’E, and you have Sunset on Italy, Combine the moons position with the Sunset threshold, and you land on 13.005’E – 42.645’N Castel San Felice in the Appennini Mountains, Central Italy. I usually relate high energy contacts with the Dawn / Dusk thresholds… so any activity here may result in a 4+ at best.
This is my assessment of what I see in this 16:10 UTC T&D map, and will try and find more info from this point.
Chris… I am a retiree so I probably have more time on my hands than you do, so I will understand if you are not here every day. Hope you are interested, and catch the ACE data before it leaves the 6 hour window… I will post if I find anything relevant to this pursuit.
Here’s todays T sequence for Tanzania..
Dawn 02:20 UTC… Sunrise 03:35 UTC… Sunset 16:10 UTC… Dusk 17:24 UTC… Solar Noon 09:52 UTCA couple of interesting points… at 09:52 UTC,it is Sunset on 129.140’E – 8.800’S Timor Trough… approx 100 km’s South of Batu Merah. It is also Dusk at this time on my forecast co-ordinates for Challenger Deep, West of Guam !
At 03:35 UTC, it is Solar Noon on the same stated co-ordinates on the Timor Trough !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 23, 2018 at 1:07 pm #3690OH! Chris… how do I keep missing these ####### targets ? I think I am staying warm and dry this morning because of high blood pressure… and the steam coming out of my ears !. The 7.9 Gulf of Alaska epicentre shares the same 15:54 UTC Dawn threshold as Prince william sound, and the co-ordinates of my Tonga forecast. And this is the other weird connection… when the event occurred at 09:31:41 UTC, it was Sunrise on 71.320’W – 44.480’S Rio Cisnes, Los Lagos, Southern Chile ( my forecast which started on Sunday !!).
This is how I initially determined Rio Cisnes as a viable target; 7.6 North of Honduras 02:52 UTC 10/1 … 7.1 Southern Peru 09:19 UTC 14/1. Input these times in your map, and you will see the Dusk / Dawn thresholds make a cross on Rio Cisnes. Input today’s Alaska event and Sunrise is on the same cross… what is going on here ?
I can’t hit a 7.9 in Alaska… but I’m your man if you want a low 5 in Bougainville 🙂
What’s the story with Java… did you get a hit, or are you having the same problem ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 22, 2018 at 8:47 pm #3680Chris… as you know, I have been logging unusual low mag quakes occurring at 22:16 UTC in British Colombia Canada. A 2.5 occurred yesterday at 22:15:42 UTC, the USGS have reported this as an explosion. I figured a man made reason was plausible because nothing natural matches over the period covered… any idea what this explosion could be, fracking or military perhaps ?
If you have a line to Ben, I would be very grateful if you could inquire on my behalf… it would be nice to have a conclusion to this mystery 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJanuary 22, 2018 at 6:53 pm #3677Hey Chris,
Ben aired an item yesterday related to space weather data from the “polar Light Centre” in Lauvic Loften, Norway, I merely made an observation of how the times relate to the resent 7+ quakes… I don’t know the link, but this address was displayed on the graph.
I too found the video clip that Tekbasse posted very interesting, if you get any free time next weekend, check out my “Out Of Africa” thread again, and see if you think there is any bow shock influence included in this scenario !
Sorry… I have committed us to the infamous Parkfield location 🙂 here’s a heads up…
01:19 UTC – Solar Noon on 5.9 Solomon’s epicentre 13/1… Sunset on Prince william Sound, Alaska
02:57 UTC -8 LS = 02:49 UTC – Class B 9.5 flux event… sun on longitude 140.616’E (Solar Noon on Challenger Deep, West of Guam!)
13:42 UTC – significant contact in Mag Phi data… Sunset on 75.750’E – 20.933’S Central Indian Ocean
15:10 UTC – significant contact in SWEPAM data, particularly in the density scaleThe T sequence for Parkfield today… Dawn 13:42 UTC… Sunrise 15:10 UTC … Sunset 01:19 UTC… Dusk 02:49 UTC
The Central Indian Ocean location is related to my post of 17th Jan 10:02 pm “Here is an ACE example”. I don’t think this will result in a big event, but there is the potential to achieve low 5 perhaps… a low 5 in Parkfield is usually news worthy!
I was going to forecast Offshore Palau Wetar, East Timor yesterday, because my own machine recorded an aspect change at 20:15 UTC. But I noticed you was already next door on Batu Merah Island 🙂 Dawn on Palau Wetar occurred at 20:15 UTC, but hey! here’s an ironic twist… it was also Solar Noon on Parkfield at this time !!
I am impressed with your current forecast selection, we both appear to be looking at similar locations… I had to make a dash for Tanzania before “you” spotted it (lol)
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 21, 2018 at 8:48 pm #3664At 20:33 UTC yesterday (20th), the moon was on the same longitude as the 7.6 North of Honduras epicentre. A few hours later at 23:40 UTC, it was Sunset on the 7.1 Southern Peru epicentre. Whilst watching SO news today, I noticed these same times corresponded with two significant disturbances in the “Polar Light Centre” data… what a coincidence !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 21, 2018 at 2:53 pm #3662Hey Chris,
I think enough time has elapsed now to suggest “Nobody is Home”… another memorable experience to learn from !!
I noticed yesterday, my forecasts are dated as 2017… so technically speaking my forecast rate for 2018 is non existent 🙂
Keep moving forward my friend…
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 6:14 pm #3652I was under the impression that we were “actually” having a serious discussion about trigger theories. Not really knowing what a dragon jammer was, I signed off from my piece with “Master Dragon Jammer” as a compliment to Hook’s status, and appreciation for giving cause to continue… was I wrong ??
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 2:14 pm #3650At 14:28:45 UTC, (approx 14 minutes from the time of this post) the moon will be on longitude 6.550’W (Mauritania!), also at this time it will be Sunrise on 132.050’W – 18.300’S NNW of Pitcairn Island… like an Earth clock !
Will there be consequences ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterJanuary 19, 2018 at 12:12 pm #3649A 4.9 occurred in the Bougainville Region P.N.G. at 05:44:46 UTC… within the 48 hour period I had stated.
What was the trigger ?… under BTW in my post above, I mentioned the next sun / moon / night equation would occur on 27th Jan at 21:01 UTC. The geocentric position of the sun at this time will be 132.050’W – 18.300’S, this location relative to Earth places you 800 km’s NNW of Pitcairn Island in the South Pacific. The geocentric position of the moon will be 6.550’W – 18.250’N, this places you 130 km’s Northeast of Walatah, Mauritania, West Africa. These co-ordinates equate to a longitude distance of 125.450 degrees apart, as measured East from the suns position… this measurement is equal to the length of night on the suns latitude.
Dawn on the moons position in Mauritania occurred today at 05:45 UTC, input 21:01 UTC 27th Jan in the T&D map and dot the centre of the moon, input the Bougainville event time and Dawn is on the dot!… did I calculate a trigger point, or is this coincidental ?
Regardless of magnitude, this test was based on observing the UTC times of 3 breaks in the ACE data feeds, and “combining” them to determine the location of a seismic event, which occurred 8 hours 4 minutes after an official forecast was posted… was this a successful test ?…. any thoughts!
Score: 0115 pts -
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