Forum Replies Created
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15 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 7:44 am #8696
So I just jumped in to learn and observe how my techniques match, overlap, disagree with yours, yours disagree with mine.
Also, so I don’t want to forget how I came to my FIRST double strike forecast, but ALL credit goes to Lester as I was not in anyway looking on this side of the planet.
Observed:
These four are close in proximity.
M 4.4 – 118km SSW of Kotaagung, Indonesia 2020-03-26 09:23:35 (UTC) 6.519°S 104.305°E 10.0 km depth
M 4.3 – 98km SSW of Bengkulu, Indonesia 2020-03-26 19:49:10 (UTC) 4.634°S 101.955°E 35.0 km depthM 4.4 – 82km WNW of Karangbolong, Indonesia 2020-04-05 04:31:06 (UTC) 6.353°S 104.957°E 55.8 km depth
M 4.9 – 141km W of Kuripan, Indonesia 2020-04-05 22:42:53 (UTC) 5.276°S 102.514°E 35.0 km depthThese two are north of the first four by
M 5.0 – 79km WNW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-06 19:20:27 (UTC) 2.825°N 95.753°E 35.0 km depth
M 4.2 – 53km SSW of Sinabang, Indonesia 2020-04-07 15:16:54 (UTC) 2.037°N 96.196°E 10.0 km depthFrom this we see increasing energy at varied depth. I conclude we will see M 5.2 followed by another quake +/- .4 .
My center point is located 672km/417mls south of the 5.0 and 507km/315mls north of the 4.9.
Lester’s center point is located 580km/360mls south of the 5.0 and 593km/368mls north of the 4.9.
Lester’s forecast point is more centered, both are close. Somewhere close too our two areas a larger quake should strike followed in 1 to 3 days with a quake between 4.8 and 5.6.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 6:32 am #8695My observational seismic forecasting shows a multiple event near 1°59’4.66″S 99°24’35.53″E located just south of Pulau Karangmajat in the M 5.3+ range but could easily be 6.3 range in the next 1-4 day. Don’t think the first strike is the only strike in this area. Give 3 days after the first strike for a second strike.
We need to get better at this soon. I dread the day, I see a forecast of mine that never gets warned to the public, and many many people die, and I think this will happen before a forecast of mine goes “official”. I do not yet know all the volcanoes in this area, LOL, but do know this area can get dangerous quick.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 6:10 am #8693Tayrance, bringing my Seismic Observational Skills into your forecast and to gain practice in this area. This is not critical or judgemental, just what my system shows. And my system is still BETA stage LOL! Also, I do not forecast this area and am not familiar with the nuances of the region.
Nothing obvious for Shikotan. It suggests 4.3 to 5.3 with the energy that struck “M 4.4 – 42km NE of Shikotan, Russia 2020-04-12 13:47:45 (UTC) 44.041°N 147.127°E 87.5 km depth” (add depth makes it a M 4.55) was what we would look for 4/10 to 4/17. but there is still time in your forecast.
Tobela shows 3°52’58.12″S 124°23’52.22″E as the center point 370km/230mls from Tobela with 4.7-5.7 energy striking now or another wave coming in about 7 days from now. Depth of the quake would bring M up .2 every 100km depth.
Columbia is totally not my area. LOL I just follow stuff coming up through Japan to Alaska is my area.
Little Sitkin Island does not show on my method. But a broader look at it shows a repeat or in-fill quake based off of the 5.2 from M 5.2 – 299km SSW of Severo-Kuril’sk, Russia 2020-04-13 01:42:51 (UTC) 48.211°N 154.468°E 35.0 km depth. So a 5.2+ from 4/13 to 4/20 near Little Sitkin Island.
Easter Island also totally out of my area. LOL.
Cimarron New Mexico does not show on my method.
Fort Davis, does show a slight progression of quakes south east ward from the bi 5.0 on 3/26 in Texas. This would be a good call as the energy usually should run EEN.
Cimarron does not show on my method, BUT I am looking NW corner of New Mexico a and SE Central Colorado, which both of those might be changed/modified.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 14, 2020 at 3:22 am #8692Hello everyone. I’m back home. I was eyeing the area where the 5.2 at Bodie California struck. I said I thought it would strike near Bishop California, and was certain my narrow forecast area was good, so I placed a tight ranged area on the forceast. Southern California – 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop, but data disagrees. So the M 5.2 struck, which is what I was exactly watching for, in my time window, but located out side my watch area by 32km/20mls. It struck 81km/50mls from Bishop California which was a center point of my watch area. My forecast is a miss, but notable non-the-less. I’m just pushing myself on tight forecast areas so that eventually these forecasts will be useful and we can then contact emergency authorities in our forecast areas to get prepared.
Based on this new activity I will be making a forecast. And extending one or two that expired, but I have been out of town and away from my computer since Saturday the 11th morning just before the 5.2 struck, otherwise I would have extended a few hours after it struck.
On a side note. My style of forecasting should be called “Observational Forecasting” because I look at prior quakes to forecast the next quakes; I also call it the “Dutch Method” since he came up with it and has posted a how to video.
Let’s bring in Mars and Dr. Richard Hoagland. And yes his ideas are controversial, but there certainly must be some gold among the sand of his thoughts. This is a new idea and I will be suspiciously observing for. Dr. Hoagland identified the possibility that there might be some mathematical observations regarding planetary geometry. This geometry appears to explain why we see energy events in specific areas on a planet. One thing he pointed out was the hexagon shape of clouds at the polar regions of planets in our solar system. I have been using EQ3D to help forecast, but it places circles around earthquake events…perhaps placing hexagons would prove more useful???…just thinking. So I will go back and look at some prior events to see if there are any noticeable/observable correlations. Being away from my computer made me start thinking what can I forecast? How? What other tools could I use? And the hexagon enetred my thoughts.
Forecasts in the next few hours.
Look for 4.0+ activity off shore on the southern half of the Juan de Fuca next 48 hours. This quake activity is used as a forecast tool/data-point for an on land forecast where all the people live. Remember, forecasting is to help all the people.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 12, 2020 at 7:40 pm #8686Nomadic Fred, I’m travelling so no computer. I too was thinking the half way point between the 5.2 at Mono Lake and Ridge Crest California. I knew for certain that my forecast point at Bishop California just 50 miles from the 5.2 if it was going to experience any activity it would be south of Bishop.
I just watched Dutchsince’s 4/11 broadcast and he also is thinking more activity near Ridge Crest and larger activity in Colorado. I have an Alert Forevast for SE central Colorado. Dutch is also getting nervous about the Juan Dr Fuca Plate offshore from the state’s of Washington and Oregon. I’m going to start watching that area closely and continue to watch Lake Mead/Hoover Dam area.
Next I’m gonna order Ben’s new book and study up on electro quakes to add to my Dutch method of observational forecasting with a spice of “huntch/feeling/intuition”-to focus center points. I think Ben sent a hint to us forecasters in today’s 4/12 broadcast to up our forecasting game.
Mark
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 11, 2020 at 6:40 pm #8681I expect another similar size quake near or just south Of Bishop California. I also keep looking at Lake Mead / Hoover Dam. But can’t make a forecast yet. Maybe after we have larger quake in New Mexico NW corner. But a 7.0+ is not out of the question now that activity is busy again.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 11, 2020 at 5:20 pm #8677Observed: M 5.2 – 30km SE of Bodie, CA 2020-04-11 14:36:37 (UTC) 38.053°N 118.732°W 8.8 km depth
Forecast made 2020-04-01: 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. My gut says closer to Bishop, with 49km/30mls south east or north west at an proximate 90 degree angle from the connecting line.
Status: Continue forecast, unchanged. This observed quake hits on strength, time, but is located out side my watch area and is 81km/50mls from Bishop California. The Moment Tensor data shows even energy pushing NNE and SSW. “kinda” at a similar angle to my watch line. Still time for more energy to creep into my watch area.
I will be traveling and return home Monday April 13 so I will only have some internet access incase you all notice me quiet from the forum.
Score: 015 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 10, 2020 at 8:14 pm #8660Lester, thank you for you guidance. Today it looks like seismic activity in N. America has stepped up M .5 in strength over the last few days AND the frequency or number of smaller under M 2.5 activity has increased dramatically. Could be the beginning of a new wave. So we keep watching grandpa snore. ZZZ LOL
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 10, 2020 at 8:07 pm #8659Observed: M 4.6 – 86km SSW of Hunter Island, New Caledonia 2020-04-10 14:46:09 (UTC) 23.145°S 171.807°E 47.8 km depth. Located 74km/119mls from forecast center point.
Note: The quake is not the energy I am looking for, it is too deep down in the trench near a depth of 5700 meters/19000 feet and too weak of energy. % days left. And thank you Lester for following my work. 🙂 This area is easy to forecast, actually all these Island Nations are fairly easy. I’m only struggling to forecast difficult and sleepy slow North America because I live there. LOL And I want to follow this energy to see if it rolls up and around to Alaska and beyond. If it heads west, then I will stop and look for another candidate to follow.
Status: Forecast remains unchanged at M 5.7 to 6.7 418km/260mls east of New Caledonia Island 2020-04-09 to 2020-04-15 22°20’12.31″S 171° 4’10.84″E radius 323kk/200mls.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 9, 2020 at 8:16 pm #8651Observed: M 2.6 – 90km WSW of Chernabura Island, Alaska 2020-04-08 07:00:46 (UTC) 54.425°N 160.809°W 10.0 km depth. Located 26km/16mls NE of forecast point. I am near perfect on location but way low on strength. A review of historical quakes for the whole island chain shows this area vary sparse of quake activity. Forecast remains active. Original forecast unchanged.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 9, 2020 at 4:19 am #8649The most important point…look at the high/high tide near your forecast area, then add 3 hours, that would be the start of a watch window, should KP and Coronal influence also fit in that six hour window. But also be aware the next 24 hour cycle could be it. (And yes I am thinking through/about a lunar cycle for some of these forecasts.) We all might look at each-other’s forecasts in tidal and lunar cycles, not to give credit but to learn from and discuss.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 9, 2020 at 3:42 am #8648Lester, thank you for the info. I will check it out in a few hours. (Again, my communication is for better translation for international viewers/forecasters and anyone new to this subject matter.)
What I was noticing for California, but also other areas on the Earth, will be the ocean tides. In California the high/high tide at around 12:05am (midnight) (7:05am UTC) Thursday the 9th followed by the low/low tide around 6:30am PST (1:30pm UTC), along with the Super Moon (perigee or closest point) and is also a Full Moon and should the KP Index reach 3 or 4, and the effects of the coronal hole hit earth at the same time, then California, plus other areas, should see some larger and in expected areas strike between 3:00am PST (10:00am UTC) and 9:00am PST (4:00pm UTC) Thursday March 9th 2020.
Keep alert..one eye open for this period and possible other periods in the next 2 or 3 days for these convergences.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 7, 2020 at 5:38 pm #8635Thank you Counselor and lester. Counselor, good choice to extend. I’m not sharp on moon knowledge, but tonight 4/7 or tomorrow 4/8 we have a super new moon and Ben is forecasting coronal hole energy in the next few days. I think we will see sharply increased seismic activity the KP hits 3 the moon is just past being over head (I’m an old surfer and know tidal forces) and the tide start to drop and the coronal energy hits. This might make for some BIG forecasts that get completed in just hours, which would be highly satisfying. Peace out.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 7, 2020 at 1:31 am #8634Lester, your San Francisco Bay area… possible 3+ in the next 5 days. Well thought. Your location is 8km/5mls east of the San Andreas Fault and Point Reyes the area where the San Francisco 1906 quake occurred. Point Reyes was on my last watch…a miss, but perhaps my miss will only on the time (by a few days).
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 11:44 pm #8630Just watched Dutchsince on youtube 2020-04-06 @ 6am UTC. He issued a warning for M 5.0 activity from Ventura California up to Ridge Crest California from today April 6 to April 13. He also has a few days remaining on his M 5.0 activity for offshore near Eureka California.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 8:46 pm #8628Lester, thank you for your data.
Counselor is watching M 6+ potential for a 250KM/155mls radius around Tehachapi, CA ( 35° 7’53.08″N 118°26’56.53″W ) April 4 to April 7. Which includes all of S. California and all of our watch areas. He feels the Garlock Fault will be the cause.
T. Allen is watching California – 500km/312mls radius from Tom’s Place ( 37°33’37.76″N 118°40’52.03″W ): 5.0 – 6.0 April 6th, 2020 until April 11th, 2020. Which includes 90% of California and Nevada and all of our watch areas.
I (Canyonrat) am watching S. California 4.7 to 5.7 April 5 to April 19 An oblong shape from Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line. With this two points it creates a long narrow line which is 100km/62mls north of you northern point.
Lester’s data indicates M 4+ April 6 to April 13 from 34°20’0.14″N 119°26’58.73″W north to 35°19’60.00″N 119°26’60.00″W.
All of these watch areas overlap…interesting?!
I posted on Counselor’s forecast that I to think that soon the Garlock Fault will release larger energy, but I think first we will see some M 5.0ish energy strike at it’s southern end where it intersects with the San Andreas Fault near the town of Frazier Park California ( 34°48’51.84″N 118°53’4.51″W ) or westward from this point.
The Official Seismologists also agree the Garlock could release larger energy: https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/garlock-fault-ridgecrest-earthquake/
And your area (Lester) is just west of the end of the Garlock Fault. Maybe we all will be correct. First 5.0 energy in Lester’s area, then follow-up larger energy strikes the Garlock Fault.
I would also allow him an additional few days perhaps until April 14th for his window. California is sleepy and SLOW with movement of energy. Just look at the Ridge Crest from July 2019 M 7.1. The standing record for after shocks had been just over 3,000. Ridge Crest still can not move the energy along even with (my low end guess) 300,000 after shocks! Ridge Crest already had experienced 80,000 aftershocks in just the first 20 days.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-07-22/ridgecrest-earthquakes-now-total-80-000
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 7:13 pm #8627Tayrance, if you did not know of the 4.1 striking 16 WSW of Tom’s Place about 8 hours before your forecast, you should get some credit for being so close to the epicenter. But the M 5.0 to 6.0 is inline for what I’m watching for too. Good call on strength and location for Tom’s Place!
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 115 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 6:52 pm #8626Observed: Along with the initial observation above, now add today’s M 4.1 – 16km WSW of Toms Place, CA 2020-04-05 19:20:46 (UTC) 37.527°N 118.853°W 7.8 km depth.
Conclusion: My forecast area might be too far SSE by 200km/120mls. But a 4.1 is on the low side to make me move my forecast center point. No changes to forecast at this time.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 6, 2020 at 6:21 pm #8625Observed: M 4.1 – 16km WSW of Toms Place, CA 2020-04-05 19:20:46 (UTC) 37.527°N 118.853°W 7.8 km depth.
Located 44km/27mls WN of Bishop.Status: Continue to watch Avila Beach California on a NE line to Bishop California, 49km/30miles east or west of that connecting line for M4.7 to 5.7. At this time, only time and location are a hit, strength is .7 below watch range.
Notes: Clarification of this “wonky” watch area. The area watched is meant to be 49km/30miles south east or north west at an proximate 90 degree angle from the connecting line. This M 4.1 quake is still well with in this clarified watch area. Also at the end points it should be clarified to have an ending radius centered at each city center as noted on google earth. Supporting Moment Tensor data shows energy evenly distributed both NW and SE from the epicenter which corresponds with my “wonky” watch area.
Score: 015 pts15 pts15 ptsCanyonratApril 5, 2020 at 8:04 pm #8611Observed: M 2.1 – 47km ENE of Cold Bay, Alaska 2020-04-02 03:29:51 (UTC) 55.357°N 162.036°W 156.4km depth
Comments: I am only mentioning this event because deep small quake. Deep small (under 4.0) quakes are uncommon. I use the depth to magnitude chart. For simple calculation, for every 50km in depth add .1 to the magnitude. It makes this quake a M 2.4. Located 130km/82mls NW of forecast location, and way back from the edge of the shelf drop off.
Status: Forecast remains active. Original forecast unchanged. March 29, 2020 to April 12, 2020. M 4.6 to 5.6. Location 54°14’47.69″N 161° 5’19.60″W with a 160km/100mls radius from this location.
Score: 015 ptsCanyonratApril 5, 2020 at 7:38 pm #8610My mistake…deeply sorry. Forecast hit!
Ebeko Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20200401/2300Z FL060 EXTD NE REPORTED OBS VA DTG: 01/2310Z
I went to
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/ebeko/news.html
But it was not showing when I went there. Now it shows right at the top, front, and center. I have been to this website many times. So I hunted around and only found the 2020-03-01 report which I thought you got confused about. It must have been a reporting error on their end that they were working on when I arrived by shear strange timing. My cut and past was not altered in any way, not even for a simple spacing issues. I did see the all the March, February, and January eruptions/reports. Again my apologies.
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