Counselorgimber,
Did you see the total electron content [TEC] anomaly over Peru precursor to the M6.4 post? You are supposed to be the one all over that! 🙂
SSBC’s can be fairly difficult to forecast at times due to the warps in the current sheet, CME’S, etc,
A co-rotating interaction region or CIR, pretty much the same. If yo wish to forecast them, remember that
Out ahead and before the arrival of a high speed coronal hole stream, is where you will find them.
For example, if a high speed coronal hole stream is expected to arrive 3 days from now, we may see a solar sector boundary crossing
occur on day 1, followed by a CIR on day 2, and the high speed coronal hole stream arrival early on day 3. This can vary of course.
If an expected coronal hole stream is the same polarity as the most recent, omit the SSBC, but still be on the watch for the CIR.
M4.5 -Near S. Coast Of Honshu, JapanJul 18 07:47 at a depth of 307 km M4.7 – Vanuatu 2017-07-19 02:36:06 UTC at a depth of 228.4 km M4.8 – Hokkaido, Japan region 2017-07-19 09:55:01 UTC at a depth of 31.8 km
Counselorgimber,
I read one of your most recent forecasts, good work on picking and combining factors. Note we had a sector crossing early on the 17th, then reversed polarity a few times throughout the UtC day. If you are not quite sure if we had a sector crossing or not, you can read the noaa space weather forecast discussion, and while we are at times better than they are, they are fairly spot on with the sector crossings. Find the Solar Wind section, there will be a 24 hour summary and a forecast. When they mention the Phi Angle that is going to let you know if the polarity has changed or not. They do not always put it in there, but most of the time. Anytime they state the Phi Angle rotated from one polarity to the other you can pretty much assume we have changed magnetic sectors at the time mentioned,(most of the time they will, unless they are being lazy) and crossed the neutral layer that separates the magnetic sectors of the interplanetary magnetic field. they do two updates a UTC period. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Also, they keep the past discussions stored here, if you need to go back and want to check on a particular event on a certain day. ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/discussion/
You may have known this already, but just in case…
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
Oh, and that is OUR Japan forecast 🙂 I put the region back on watch a few days back, too many unresolved deep seismic shocks for me to let it go yet..
I successfully forecast the M7.3 Japan last Nov. 2016: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/MjsjcXkDsd7
And M7’s tend to not show up alone, so…maybe we will be splitting that prize 🙂
And I was just about to post the Peru watch as the missing seismic teleconnection to the earlier Tonga events. FTW
However, a little out of range so I will reverse the connection.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
Lester, dude…how long are your watch periods on average? I have saw some predictions that are along the lines of “sometime between now and the next 30 days there will be an earthquake yada yada yada..” I am not stating you do that, so do not go on the defensive.
This thread needs to end, only because there are some good stuff getting buried in here. We can create a few posts pertaining to different subjects for our daily discussions, so it is easier to navigate.
“.. the deep Solomon Is. event after the M6.4 PNG, [the thermal energy] wants to go East, but I can see it doubling back West. I have forecast that accurately before, and bet it will again.” Sure enough, on the move back West with a deep seismic shock: M4.3 – 149km N of Lae, Papua New Guinea 2017-07-14 06:10:11 UTC at a depth of 171.6 km. Could result in another high magnitude event @ PNG, or continue to the West, Indonesia region or migrate NW up the bend into the Philippines. Hold that thought..
Some relevant info for you all: From 1970 to 1984, there were no M7.0+ deep earthquakes in the Southwest Pacific, this was interrupted in 1985-86 by a group, but then became quiet again until 1991 coinciding with the declining solar curve started from the cycle 22 peak
After that the region has become seismically very active up until today.
Deep great earthquakes (magnitude 7.0 or greater) are considered the first tangible appearance of the Earth’s outer-core discharged thermal energy, they are considered to directly reflect the activity of the outer core which is intricately interacting with the solar activity and its cycle. High magnitude deep quakes, particularly in Fiji- Southwest Pacific, most sensitively respond to the outer core activity, because the region is the site where thermal plume rises directly from the outer core according to the mantle tomography.
The Earth’s core activity has entered an active phase since 1990 as seen in the sudden appearance of great deep earthquakes after 1990, coinciding with the start of unusual behaviour of the Sun.
“However, if they have been that much of a pain for you, then I am anxious about my ability to work with it.” Oh I still worked with it, it just doesn’t pan out for as much effort and time you put into it. A daily outgoing long wave radiation anomaly map stomps on anything the ionosphere will offer as a reliable precursor, imo. But, I did do it myself, and it took up much time. just giving you fair warning. However, you may find some of my posts from the past encouraging, even though they do little good in the forecasting sense: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/RsXEwbK5mmm https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/ZLkk4s5aRr2 https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/iNWi3nRPNyc
“Hook- in the seismic teleconnection, is there a degree range from these paired areas in how they correspond to degree ranges of P and S waves travelling through the mantle?” I believe it is something else entirely. But,
I will be back on later, and see what else I can dig up.
“I expect a 4 to 5 mag. @ Fiji, a seismic teleconnection to Chile/Argentina.” Shortly after, M4.4 – 106km SE of Ndoi Island, Fiji 2017-07-14 03:36:42 UTC at a depth of 407.0 km
seismically teleconnecting with M4.4 – 102km W of El Aguilar, Argentina 2017-07-14 00:24:53 UTC at a depth of 190.6 km
And there is the Fiji seismic teleconnection I was expecting: M4.4 – 106km SE of Ndoi Island, Fiji 2017-07-14 03:36:42 UTC at a depth of 407.0 km seismically teleconnected to M4.4 – 102km W of El Aguilar, Argentina 2017-07-14 00:24:53 UTC at a depth of 190.6 km
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
M5.1 – 89km W of Vinchina, Argentina 2017-07-13 15:26:31 UTC at a depth of 83.5 km. M5.1 – 296km NE of Raoul Island, New Zealand 2017-07-14 00:57:25 UTC at a depth of 10.0 km.
Note: I believe the NZ quake is close enough to the Fiji region that a seismic teleconnection is occurring. I can always toss this out later, however it is not the first time I have thought a NZ quake was close enough to the Fiji region to pair off with a SA rumble.
Oh yes..Japan. I was thinking of the region earlier. And all those recent deep quakes, energy has to go somewhere. It looks like South America is getting ready to rumble as well. I included Chile/Argentina in my latest forecast. We are going to see a major quake, and the deep Solomon Is. event after the M6.4 PNG, wants to go East, but I can see it doubling back West. I have forecast that accurately before, and bet it will again. If Fiji pops a 4 mag., I would consider it a separate event altogether, not related to the earlier PNG. I expect a 4 to 5 mag. @ Fiji, a seismic teleconnection to Chile/Argentina. Maybe that M5.1 New Zealand is far enough North to consider to it a connection to M5.1 Argentina. I should post it because this is not the first time I have seen these regions pair off.
Lester,
Which quake are you awaiting? The significant that is going to occur in Burma? Hehe..that would be something. I have the region on my latest forecast. A deep seismic shock occurred after I had posted M4.8 – 16km SE of Mawlaik, Burma 2017-07-13 05:03:31 UTC at a depth of 89.7 km.. Well, not terribly deep but last year M5.0 – 40km NE of Mawlaik, Burma 2016-08-23 02:11:12 UTC at a depth of 101.7 km occurred the day before the M6.8 Burma hit. Alot of similarities as far as recent EQ’s and such. That deep energy swinging around the bend through Indo/Sumatra region just like last year.
Counselorgimber,
Did yo happen to notice the most recent M6.4 – 38km SSE of Taron, Papua New Guinea 2017-07-13 03:36:09 UTC epicenter is located beneath one of the equatorial plasma bands and when ionospheric TEC was at its peak for the region? Pretty cool to have an example shortly after our posts to reference.
Extending Burma/Myanmar region region another 48 hours. Begin 15:05:11 UTC Thursday, July 13, 2017.
Deep seismic shock: M4.8 – 16km SE of Mawlaik, Burma 2017-07-13 05:03:31 UTC at a depth of 89.7 km.
Note: Last year Mawlaik was the warning foreshock the day before the Magnitude 6.8 occurred in Burma(2016): M5.0 – 40km NE of Mawlaik, Burma 2016-08-23 02:11:12 UTC at a depth of 101.7 km M6.8 – 26km W of Chauk, Burma 2016-08-24 10:34:54 UTC at a depth of 82.0 km
We also had two very deep seismic events that occurred near Indonesia the day before,[23rd]. M6.0 – 132km N of Nebe, Indonesia 2016-08-23 19:39:44 UTC at a depth of 533.0 km M5.8 – 139km N of Nebe, Indonesia 2016-08-23 19:40:46 UTC at a depth of 520.3 km
We had a seismic event down in the 500+ km range, M5.9 – 180km ESE of Hoemul-li, North Korea 2017-07-12 19:48:08 UTC at a depth of 559.1 km
The M6.8 occurred 5 days after full moon,
If Mawlaik is indeed a foreshock the day before like last year, the main event will occur also 5 days, after the full moon.
Doesn’t mean anything really, just weird how events line up sometimes. and I IZ BoRed..15:39:51 UTC
Thursday, July 13, 2017
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
.
