I cannot recall, but I believe you had asked about access to ionograms? http://giro.uml.edu/
Here is the thing, half of them do not get updated, others stopped data recording years ago. There are a handful that are up to date. Just remember the ionospheres F2 layer naturally changes height and is variable throughout the day, and anomalies can occur for a variety of reasons. It is a pain in the arse imo, but maybe you have more patience than I.
Oh, the image of the plasma bands. Below the plasma bands, a layer of the ionosphere called the E-layer becomes partially electrified during the day. High-altitude winds blow electrically charged plasma in the E-layer across Earth’s magnetic field, creating an electric field.
This electric field shapes the plasma above the E-layer into two bands. Therefore, anything that changes the motion of the E-layer plasma also affects the electric fields it generates; this in turn reshapes the plasma bands.
There are four pairs of bright spots in the bands where the plasma was thicker than average. One of the pairs was located above the Pacific Ocean, but three of them were situated above the Amazon Basin in South America, the Congo Basin in Africa and Indonesia—areas with lots of thunderstorm activities.
Edit alert Zone: Korsakov, Russia extend East Shikotan, Russia to Kuril Islands, forming triangle [Computer graphic problems]. Time: 17:30:51 UTC Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Lester,
Yes, this is quite an interesting correlation you have latched onto. Note, I never stated you were wrong about ACE, I was just offering a possible explanation. It appears it may be time for them to completely remove ACE data from the public domain:-)
Lester,
Not seeing eye to eye at times I personally believes presents a door leading to the potential to progress. It generates drive and motivation.
At least it does for me anyway. Yet another deep EQ in Japan: M4.6 – Bonin Islands, Japan region 2017-07-09 20:09:39 UTC at a depth of 421.5 km. I need to extend my forecast a few days
Counselorgimber, “Was it an occurrence that included the thermal nuetrons, as well as the factors used on quakewatch, as the last precursor to a quake of those higher magnitudes?” I have no idea. But what I can tell you is that most higher magnitude earthquakes effect the ionosphere.
“For Hook, I forgot to ask about the F2 critical frequency chart on spaceweathernews. Do those measurements in anyway correspond to what you had posted about?” Yes. Well sort of. The main difference is the ionograms from the independent stations are better suited for identifying ionospheric anomalies. The global maps generate an automated interpretation of ionograms from around the world, so are basically worthless for earthquake forecasting purposes, as any potential earthquake related anomalies that may occur above or near an epicenter only affect the immediate and nearby area[s] of the ionosphere.
But I can explain to you what I used to do. When a high magnitude earthquake wold occur I would make note on the global maps if the event happened under an area with high TEC [total electron content]. Many times it does, and other times no. I will share an image of the main equatorial plasma bands: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQd1lVUVRUZEtCREk/view?usp=sharing
Notice how some of the regions that the larger seismic events occur often are either located below or nearby the plasma bands. I will come back and finish up this post, I am nodding off, lol. Basically attempting to use the global ionosphere maps as a reliable factor for earthquake prediction is not a top choice, but are helpful imo in creating an overall understanding of what processes are occurring during a high magnitude event, which can add to your knowledge and prove useful down the road.
Lester,
Thank you for the additional info in regards to Japan.
“this could indicate a larger than average event on approx 136’E, on or within 48 hours of the 10th.” You may be corrrect. In addition to the Full Moon, The Phi angle reversed from a negative into a positive sector between 05:50-14:30 UTC. where it remained in the negative. Along with the weakened magnetosphere, there should be plenty of additional thermal neutrons. Now I see an additional deep seismic shock for the region that has occurred: M4.4 – 288km NNW of Chichi-shima, Japan 2017-07-08 20:21:56 UTC at a depth of 101.6 km
The sad part is we no longer have access to accurate thermal neutron public data to cross check, they took that away from us a few years ago after we started following and publicly posting the correlation between local ground station readings with seismic activity. This was before I knew aabout SSBC’s association. When I asked why they were removing the spikes, the reply I received was the spikes in thermal neutrons right before the larger events were “errors” and that some of the stations “getting old” and now they are no longer displayed, and if any do happen to slip by and appear they are promptly removed. Yeah, sure. This example is just one of many instances that certainly leaves an impression they do simply not want was predicting earthquakes. Almost every time we would find useful data and start posting, it disappears. And not just us..back in the day, there is a man named Stan Deyo who used to accurately identify future epicenters utilizing a Navy weather satellite system [cannot recall the name] when that data was pulled from the public domain. It doesn’t make much sense, and happens way too often to be a coincidence.
I had made a few recent successful predictions for the Japan region. There was a deep seismic shock M4.7 – 4km S of Toba, Japan 2016-11-11 04:53:37 UTC at a depth of 348.2 km.. It was followed by a shallower, higher event M6.2 – 24km ENE of Ishinomaki, Japan 2016-11-11 21:42:59 UTC at a depth of 44.8 km. These events occurred within the 5 day period leading up to the Full Moon. which took place November 14 13:52 UTC
Next, a deep seismic shock occurred again in the 4 magnitude range M4.5 – 207km W of Chichi-shima, Japan 2016-11-20 23:05:03 UTC at a depth of 452.8 km., It was followed by a shallower,higher magnitude event M7.3 – 61km ESE of Namie, Japan 2016-11-21 20:59:46 UTC at a depth of 10.0 km.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
M4.7 – 78km SW of Atocha, Bolivia 2017-07-08 05:03:57 UTC at a depth of 231.8 km M4.9 – 111km ESE of Pangai, Tonga 2017-07-08 15:10:14 UTC at a depth of 10.0 km
M4.7 – South of the Fiji Islands 2017-07-06 13:46:12 UTC at a depth of 529.3 km M4.7 – 51km SSW of Huarmey, Peru 2017-07-06 23:23:08 UTC at a depth of 45.7 km
Good lord. New Zealand M5.5 and Solomon Is. M5.4. Got the regions correct, but my magnitude needs to get back on track. It will come around, and be just like the ‘old days.’
Counselorgimber,
Tom Bleier, a satellite engineer with QuakeFinder, states right before a large earthquake, static-electricity discharges rise sharply, with claims of readings of the final discharge in the range of 100,000 amperes for a magnitude 6 earthquake and a million amperes for a magnitude 7. “Underground lightning.”
I think I may share some older methods and some other factors I have looked for and used in the past, you all may find some usefulness in the Observations.
Some earthquakes effect the height if the ionospheric F2 layer. The region of the ionosphere where the electron density is greatest occurs in the F2 region of the ionosphere and is known as the height maximum of the F2 layer (or hmF2). Some of my posts where I incorporate localized ionosondes [a type of radar that examines the ionosphere] focus on anomalies in hmF2 just prior or during high magnitude earthquakes. This is potential evidence of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling. A pre-earthquake zone is highly enhanced due to the injection of airborne positive ions associated with telluric currents. The injection of positively charged air ions at the rock-to-air interface will produce a vertical electric field that extends into the ionosphere. Shifts of sudden changes in this electric field leading to a triggering of an event will in turn effect hmF2. Some images below for visualization proposes: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/LwE5XtZUkdM
I, also have a plasma globe sitting next to my laptop 🙂
I was considering constructing a mini Tesla coil as well, suitable for a desktop.
In regards to the Moon, there is a general trend of increase in earthquakes that begins 5 days before a New Moon event, and several times immediately after.
The P-Value is 0.047303. The result is significant at p < 0.05.
Graph: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B83EkoitOiKQYjJoZ3hObW1vbUU/view?usp=sharing
In a study just published in Nature Geoscience, University of Tokyo researchers report that of the 12 largest recorded earthquakes — those with a magnitude of 8.2 or more — over the past two decades, nine occurred on days near new or full moons, when the gravitational tidal pull caused high stress across the fault. Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size–frequency statisticshttp://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n11/full/ngeo2796.html
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
Moon was near Tonga [M6.2] @ 17:42 UTC June 25th, day after official New Moon. Even though a day after, still effective. Some say it is a combined Sun and Moon gravitational effect, but I am thinking it more likely involves resonance and possibly an interaction with the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and/or an alteration of near Earth cosmic rays/solar wind. Maybe even causing a discharge/triggering effect of static fields that are present and have been detected near the faults of future epicenters before some earthquakes, operating though an Lithosphere/Ionosphere/Magnetosphere type coupling. Keep trying 🙂
Lester,
“I was deliberating the behavioural pattern of the CIR, is it interrelated with specific orbital cycles ?”
CIR is short for co rotating interaction region. This is where fast solar wind originating from a coronal hole meets with the slower solar wind. So, before a high speed coronal hole stream reaches Earth, CIRs will be just ahead of the faster stream. They can be identified by a rotation of the Phi Angle, and (usually) have a unique look to them and (usually) are fairly easy to pick out. Some differences between a CIR and a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) is the CIR will rotate the Phi Angle through both positive and negative sectors, and a SSBC will just be a “single action” switch from one polarity to the other. This is not always the case, as the warped magnetic field will sometimes “bounce” between polarities before settling and remain in either a positive or negative sector. Also note the polarity of the solar wind will match the sector the majority of the time. Some SSBC’s will show a rise in the “low energy” protons while the neutral layer makes its passage. And some do not. Some SSBC’s will bump up the kp index and produce aurora, change the speed of the solar wind and/or density for a short period.
“With electrostriction and magnetostriction, I am imagining the earth’s crust expanding and contracting at the times of the boundary crossing, as well as periods of new/full moon. Does inhomogeneous magnetic fields mean inhomogeneous expansion/contraction?” Ya, well I am not so sure this is what actually occurs during a crossing. It could very well be cosmic rays making their way to the lithosphere, being detected by ground stations and since the New/Full Moon causes thermal neutrons to the released from the crust, the authors that state this assume the same action and/or mechanism
is applied to the crossings as well. I personally think the increased hard component of the cosmic rays coming from above is the correct explanation , possibly discharging the static field that is present above the some of future epicenters. It is my belief that their are several ways an earthquake can be triggered. Some are energy making its way up from the core, while others are triggered from actions occurring from above. Full Moon triggered quakes may be the result of an electrical discharge taking place, since an electrical charge is present along the surface of the Moon due to the Moon residing in Earths plasma tail. This could be a more thorough explanation, rather than just a tidal type effect. The combined gravitational pull of the New Moon and Sun may explain the triggering of a quake, or better yet an interaction between the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and the New Moon. Or your thoughts in regards may be correct as well. We see changes in TEC (total electron content) in the ionosphere sometimes months in advance of an earthquake.Same applies to OLR (outgoing long wave radiation) Others nothing. It is rather fun theorizing, Yes? I may add more to this post later..
Counselorgimber,
“Although I don’t have any “hit” to my name yet,” nothing to worry about,as far as this website, I was actually the ‘first’ forecaster @ quakewatch to have a “hit” to my name, but the post had “mysteriously” disappeared the next day. It just so happened I had created a post in regards on my google plus page: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/6Hy2S4GbNJF
No one seems to know what happened to the post..Ben stated he even left a comment. Moving on…
After that, I have for the most part, attempting ‘new’ forecast methods. mixing it up a little, tinkering with this and that…trying new factors here and there. The forecast I had hopes for was when the contest was announced. Darn I was close…if it hadn’t been for that volcano eruption stealing and slightly redirecting the migration. This is rather interesting: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117300779230803580292/posts/f38KpzSwbsP
Honestly,I am here for ya’ all for the most part. I will be back online alter this evening to attempt to answer the remaining questions.
Keep up the great work, all..and where in the heck are the other forecasters? You have input/questions, lets see them. For the time is coming when you will have to deal with a pushback from the mainstream, so you had better have a clue of what you are talking about if you get caught up in a debate.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
And lets not leave out the M9.2 Alaska Earthquake and Tsunami that occurred March 27, 1964..the largest earthquake to occur in the North America to date.
This reply was modified 7 years, 4 months ago by HookEcho.
The March equinox 2016 earthquake watch period results:: M6.0 earthquake Atka, Alaska on March 19th. M6.0 earthquake Codrington, Barbuda march 19th. M6.4 earthquake, Ust’-Kamchatsk Staryy, Russia March 20th
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