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115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 7, 2020 at 5:50 pm #9219
Mark,
I ran a T sequence from 30th June for the M 6.6 Java Sea event…
On 30th June at 11:50 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.6 Java Sea epicentre on coordinates 110’40’E – 5’37’S. Also at this time, the ATE threshold was located on the post seismic M 5.1 Sabah, Malaysia epicentre of 01:58:30 UTC 30th June, on coordinates 116’24’E – 6’56’N. This ATE correlation began on 29th June, and continues until 14th July… USGS archive still does not list the Sabah event as occurring !!
On 3rd July at 23:50 UTC (12 hour window !), it was moonrise on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June on coordinates 95’54’W – 16’00’N.
On 2nd July at 21:30 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre. At “12 hours” earlier 09:30 UTC, it was moonset on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre.
On 6th July at 10:36 UTC, it was sunset on the pre seismic M 6.6 Java Sea epicentre, and the ATB threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre… Java Sea event occurred 12 hours, 18 minutes later at 22:54:46 UTC.
My model contains all 6+ epicentres from 1st June, the M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre was the only one to correlate with this event during this period. At “12 hours” earlier 10:54:46 UTC. the RLT was located on the pre seismic M 5.6 Izu Islands epicentre, and it was one minute past moonrise on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands. If I had to “guess” an influential pre seismic location “12 hours” prior to this event occurring. I would suggest the same region as the M 5.9 event of 24th June, Southeast of Honshu, Japan… it was moonrise here at this time !
It seems this was a “very important quake” after all… 🙂
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 7, 2020 at 12:53 pm #9218Correlation trivia…
On 21st June between times 06:41:56 UTC – 06:44:35 UTC, it was New Moon plus Northern Hemisphere solar eclipse. At 06:42 UTC, it was moonset in the Santa Cruz Islands on longitude 165’02’E… and at 06:45 UTC, the ATE threshold was located on coordinates 129’55’W – 43’36’N, pre seismic location of the M 3.9 Off Coast of Oregon of 6th July.
On 6th July at 18:16:18 UTC, an M 6.2 event occurred North of Fais, Micronesia on coordinates 140’14’E – 12’03’N. At three minutes later 18:19;09 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred in the Izu Islands on coordinates 138’09’E – 31’28’N.
Back to 21st June at 02:40:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 139’09’E Izu Islands, and the sun was located on longitude 140’20’E. At 02:40:57 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 140’14’E Micronesia. At 02:40:57 UTC 22nd June, the moon was located on longitude 151’18’E New Britain P.N.G.. At 02:40:10 UTC 23rd June, the moon was located on longitude 165’02’E Santa Cruz Islands !
On 5th July at 13:25 UTC, it was moonset on the M 3.9 Oregon epicentre, and the moon was located on longitude 165’02’E Santa Cruz Islands. On 6th July at 14:20:50 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 165’02’E, and the SLT (Setting Lunar Threshold) was located in the San Francisco Bay Area.
On 5th July a transmission break occurred in the ACE satellite data between times 05:25 UTC – 06:03 UTC… break occurred during a partial lunar eclipse. At 05:25 UTC, Sunrise and the SLT were located on coordinates 33’11’W – 57’24’N Reykjanes Ridge, South of Iceland. At 06:03 UTC, it was both sunrise and moonset on coordinates 35’27’W – 53’10’N Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone, Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge… approx 500 km’s South of Reykjanes coordinates. At “12 hours earlier 18:03 UTC 4th July, it was moonrise on Mt Etna and Mt Stromboli volcanoes.
On 28th June it was First Quarter moon phase. At 02:32 UTC, it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 6.2 Micronesia epicentre, and the SLT was located on the Reykjanes Ridge at the stated coordinates. Three minutes later at 02:35 UTC, it was moonrise on the pre seismic M 5.6 Izu Islands epicentre, and moonset on the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone, at the stated coordinates.
On 10th July at 23:04 UTC, sunset on Reykjanes Ridge and sunset on Puerto Rico. At “12 hours earlier 11:04 UTC, ATB threshold located in the San Francisco Bay Area. On 12th July 11:05 UTC, ATB threshold located in the San Francisco Bay Area, sun located on longitude 15’11’E… Mt Stromboli volcano resides on longitude 15’12’E !
On 7th July at 20:19 UTC, it will be sunrise on Mt Sakurajima volcano in Kyushu, Japan… Moonset on Mt Ebeko volcano in Northern Kuril Islands, Russia… and both thee RLT and ATE thresholds will be located on Mt Etna volcano in Sicily, Italy. At “12 hours” earlier 08:19 UTC, it was moonrise on coordinates 168’20’E – 17’17’S Port-Vila, Vanuatu, and moonset on the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone coordinates. Four minutes later at 08:23 UTC, the SLT was located on the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone, and the moon was located on longitude 95’55’W… the M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico event of 23rd June occurred on longitude 95’54’W !
On 5th July at 20:19 UTC, it was sunrise on the pre seismic M 6.2 Micronesia epicentre of 6th July !!
Raining heavy in the UK… just something to pass the time !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 7, 2020 at 11:11 am #9216Check these events with T & D sun map, they “could be” relevant to this forecast !
6th July 18:16:18 UTC – M 6.6 Micronesia … -12 hours
6th July 20:38:00 UTC – Eruption Mt Ebeko … Actual
7th July 06:16:27 UTC – M 5.1 Southwest Sumatra … ActualThey correlate to a location on the Mendocino Ridge, West of Petrolia. Events occurred within “12 hours”, and the 6th July M 3.9 Off Coast of Oregon… may have been a warning shot !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 5, 2020 at 6:04 pm #9196On 2nd July at 03:35:20 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred on the Southeast Pacific Rise. At this time, it was sunrise South of L’Aquila, Central Italy… Sunset in Oakland, San Francisco… and Moonrise on the post seismic M 5.1 Isangel, Vanuatu epicentre of 30th June. The Isangel, Vanuatu event occurred at 22:10:09 UTC, at “12 hours” earlier 10:10:09 UTC 30th June, it was Sunset on Bali Island, Indonesia !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 5, 2020 at 4:39 pm #9194On 5th July at 08:53:35 UTC, an M 5.5 event occurred South of Sand Point, Alaska. at “12 hours” earlier 20:53:35 UTC 4th July, the ATE threshold was located on Central Italy.
On 5th July at 03:36 UTC, it was sunset in the Kent Lake region of San Francisco, and the SLT plus sunset was located on coordinates 13’25’E – 42’15’N South of L’Aquila, Central Italy… Moonrise occurred on Kent Lake one minute earlier at 03:35 UTC !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 5, 2020 at 3:45 pm #9192On 5th July, two data breaks occurred in the ACE satellite transmission. First break occurred during a penumbral eclipse of the moon between times 05:25 UTC – 06:03 UTC. The second break occurred between times 10:00 UTC – 10:23 UTC… these data breaks correspond with the following scenarios…
05:25 UTC – The SLT (Setting Lunar threshold) and Sunrise both located on coordinates 33’08’W – 57’23’N in the Reykjanes ridge region, South of Iceland. On 10th July 23:04 UTC – Sunset on Reykjanes Ridge… Sunset on Puerto Rico… -12 hours = ATB threshold located on San Francisco… Sun located on longitude 15’22’E i.e. Solar Noon on Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy on coordinates 15’12’E. On 12th July 11:05 UTC – ATB threshold located on San Francisco… Sun located on longitude 15’11’E !
06:03 UTC – Both Sunrise and Moonrise located on coordinates 35’20’W – 53’10’N Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone, Northern Mid-Atlantic ridge… approx 500 km’s South of Reykjanes coordinates… -12 hours = Moonrise on Mt Stromboli volcano
10:00 UTC – The RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) was located on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern Kuril Islands. Mt Ebeko volcano has now erupted 4 times between 01:25 UTC 3rd July – 19:58 UTC 4th July.
10:23 UTC – ATB threshold located on Guatemala… Moonrise on Bali Island, Indonesia… -12 hours = Moonset on Bali Island. On 2nd July 20:31 UTC – Moonrise Reykjanes Ridge on stated coordinates… SLT on Bali Island, Indonesia !
6th July 04:24 UTC – Sun located on longitude 115’15’E Bali Island, Indonesia – Moonrise in San Francisco !
Shortly after the data breaks, a significant aspect change occurred in the ACE MAG data between times 11:40 UTC – 12:00 UTC, these coincide with Sunrise and Moonset in Guatemala respectively !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 2, 2020 at 8:54 pm #9180https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/100000007220738/myanmar-collapse.html
Example of the affects of rain fall in Myanmar… west of your forecast box !
Score: 0115 ptslesterJuly 2, 2020 at 1:55 pm #9173Okay my friend, no more sermons… don’t want you coming home from work, dreading what I have been preaching next. I have to give you credit though, your patience is very enduring lol. I do like your ideas, and believe they can be better used to try and determine time of event, rather than actual location… but something we can experiment with when you get time.
I never got into motorcycles myself, but being raised on a farm, at age 10 I use to drive myself to school on a farm tractor… thus started my early working life in Agriculture.
Easy Rider & The Bumpkin… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJuly 1, 2020 at 11:16 pm #9166It is indeed a “very rare” event that only occurs in this region about once or twice a year. So rare in fact that USGS has not even bothered to list this one. I think this is an oversight on their part, as previous events can be found in the archives. A Very important quake depends on what is meant by “important” ?.
The last 5+ event to occur here was an M 5.2 on 8th March 2018, so this confirms rarity. An M 6.8 event occurred in New Ireland P.N.G on this day, and an M 6.6 event occurred in the Banda Sea on 25th March 2018… approx 300 miles outside your stated circle. On 4th June 2015, an M 6.0 occurred in Sabah, Malaysia at 23:15:43 UTC, On 3rd July 2015, an M 6.1 event occurred in the Philippine Islands region… approx 300 miles inside your stated circle. These events correlate on these occasions, but how many 6+ events have occurred in the Banda Sea and Philippine Islands, in comparison to number of 5+ events in Sabah, Malaysia ?
How did you calculate the exact radius of your circle to 1,600 km’s – 1,000 miles ?… I tried it on 151’E New Britain and the ring made contact with the Santa Cruz Islands. I tried it on the M 5.1 Port-Olry, Vanuatu epicentre of today (somewhere I am recently familiar with !), and the ring made contact with Bougainville Island. When I placed it on the M 7.4 Oaxaca epicentre… the ring made contact with longitude 108’W South end of Gulf of California 🙂
I followed your instructions again, you said you “GUESS” something should strike North and offshore from Banggai, Central Sulawesi… a very “defined” assessment for a guess !. How do I get to the same location determination using your ring ? Has this hypothesis worked somewhere else ? because you seem to be unsure of a positive outcome from Sabah… you state this area is to “complex” for you to forecast. Earthquakes are a “global” phenomena, a hypothesis related to pre seismic detection must be able to be employed at any region on earth. If a hypothesis works in California, but doesn’t work in Indonesia… it does not have the necessary requirements to be called a “Seismic hypothesis”. A BIG eruption… there are several active volcanoes within the regions of your stated circle… the closest ones to Banggai are Mt Soputan and Mt Lokon-Empung in the North Sulawesi region. They are currently classed as restless, but if a significant eruption did occur from one of these volcanoes, and an event occurred North of Banggai… how do you prove one is influencing the other ?
Could cause a tsunami… any Sea quake or events in coastal regions “could” cause a tsunami. A statement used by others to make their predictions sound more impressive than they actually are…don’t fall into the same category !
I conducted a short related T sequence involving the Sabah event, covering periods 29th – 30th June… it reads as follows.
On 30th June at 01:58:30 UTC, an M 5.1 event occurred in Sabah, Malaysia on coordinates 116’6’56’N. At this time, the RLT was located on coordinates 169’11’E – 19’24’S. An M 5.1 event occurred South of Isangel, Vanuatu on these coordinates some time later at 22:10:09 UTC. At 12 hours earlier 10:10:09 UTC, it was sunset on Bali Island, Indonesia. Continuing with the Sabah event time of 01:58:30 UTC, the moon was located on longitude 151’18’E New Britain P.N.G… you recall I mentioned this location previously, New Britain is building up for more activity !. At “12 hours earlier 13:58:30 UTC 29th June, it was Moonset on coordinates 168’20’E – 17’17’S Port-Vila, Vanuatu (my forecast location).
On 29th June at 19:40:13 UTC, an M 5.6 event occurred in the Ascension Islands region on coordinates 13’25’W – 11’39’S. At “12 hours earlier 07:40:13 UTC, the moon and ATE threshold combined on coordinates 168’20’E – 17’17’S Port-Vila, Vanuatu. As two 5+ events have occurred North and South of this location, I am “speculating” that a greater magnitude event may occur on or near these coordinates.
On 29th June at 04:17:59 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 116’24’E, therefore Solar Noon on the Sabah epicentre… and it was Moonrise on the post seismic M 6.6 Naze, Japan epicentre of 13th June. At 05:05 UTC, it was Moonrise on the Sabah epicentre… and Moonrise on Bali Island, Indonesia. At 10:34 UTC, it was Sunset on the Sabah epicentre… Sunset on Mt Merapi volcano in Central Java Indonesia… and the ATB threshold was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June.
My method is a “true” observational hypothesis, and it is not possible to alter or cherry pick the data to make it more favourable. I do not add my own scientific assumptions to explain why these correlations are happening. Nor do I include references to depth, or calculations related to magnitude scales. It is not a question of gauging magnitude, gauging depth, or even determining weather a tsunami may occur as a result. The point of a seismic hypothesis first and foremost, is to determine “where an earthquake is going to occur”. I do not make up the event times, or what time it is going to be sunrise or sunset on a particular day. The data I post can easily be checked by anyone with the online tools I describe, and they would get the exact same results. It is individual decision based on the “facts”, not “assumptions” weather they believe these correlations amount to determining pre seismic locations !
You have put forward your Ring Theory, and “guessed” where a seismic event may occur. I simply deducted “12 hours” from the Ascension Islands event time… and got two hits in Vanuatu ! Both Sabah and Vanuatu correlate to Bali Island, and one of those pesky 1.4 Croatian events occurred today (1st July) at 11:26:50 UTC, felt by 161 people. The ATE threshold was located on Bali Island at this time. Even the lowest of events can lead you in the right direction.
It is understandable why collaboration is never really possible between seismic predictors. We are indoctrinated into different methods from day one. And no matter what anybody says, we will not deviate from our own belief that we alone are on the right path to finding an answer. I asked you questions… can you answer them ? If you can, it is a step forward to the possibility of being open minded, and collaborating. My example is above… would you like to test my theory and ask “me” questions ?
Like before, I am testing your theory… and no offence is intended. Each theory weather it be right or wrong, always provides experience, different elements, and an occasional point that may have been overlooked before. Kamchatka for example may be a slim outsider, but if an event occurs, success will be because I collaborated and combined my theory with your “last ring theory” to determine location… otherwise I would probably not have been looking in this region !
If for no other reason… you are keeping me busy 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterJune 30, 2020 at 12:26 pm #9150I checked out location off East coast of Kamchatka … 160’03’E – 50’41’N
On 19th June at 17:06:21 UTC, it was sunrise on the stated coordinates… and the moon was located on longitude 95’54’W, pre seismic longitude of the M 7.4 Oaxaca, Mexico epicentre of 23rd June.
On 21st June at 09:37 UTC, it was both sunset and moonset on the stated coordinates. Earlier at 07:54 UTC, I noted the penumbral border of the Northern hemisphere solar eclipse, was momentarily in contact with this location, the sun was located on longitude 177’58’W Lone Pine at this time… just thinking outside the box !
On 28th June between times 09:35 UTC – 09:59 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunset threshold for “First Quarter” moon phase… and remained at this position for the duration of this period. At 09:36 UTC, it was sunset on the stated coordinates, and the moon was located on longitude 128’21’E… ref; Oaxaca analysis in “chat room”.
On 29th June at 17:10 UTC, it was sunrise on the stated coordinates… and the moon was geocentric on the ATE threshold over Tanzania on coordinates 30’40’E – 5’54’S. At “12 hours” earlier 05:10 UTC, it was moonset in Puerto Rico, and the moon was located on longitude 155’23’W Hawaii… two very influential locations !
On 30th June at 14:22 UTC, it was moonset on the stated coordinates… and the SLT was located on the post seismic M 7.4 Kermadec epicentre of 18th June.
I don’t know if any of this is relevant… just fulfilling what I said I would do !
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