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115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 23, 2020 at 6:33 pm #8911
Hey Mark,
Thank you for your kind words, and though we are currently working at different ends of the seismic spectrum, we both have the same goal… how to find a credible method to give advanced warning to others of impending seismic activity. It is an Honorable thing to want to do, but we also have to be realistic and face a few demoralising facts. Firstly, as you say, we are here at Quake Watch doing our citizen science bit, in hopes of finding, or contributing towards an answer. But if you seriously think about it, how many scientists, seismic students, and amateur seismic researchers like ourselves, have tried to answer this question ?. And we are talking about a period stemming from at least 1906, when modern seismology was allegedly born from the devastation of the great San Francisco earthquake of this year… I figure this would be a lot of people. So I personally am not under any allusion that I could find an answer, that others more qualified than myself, failed to achieve in almost 120 years !!
Then you have to consider how many different theories have been abound during this time. How many millions of dollars have been spent on experiment and research… in how many different countries. The sun and moon have been done to death, tidal theories don’t explain 6+ events in the middle of China, there is no “constructive” evidence that core or lithosphere energy’s relate to seismic correlation, and though geometric planetary alignments are widely accepted by many people… they don’t relate to something as menial as a 2+ in Croatia !
No my friend, you have to face facts… you have not been here long, yet you have posted enough material to complete the first chapter of a book, and your current record shows you have a 4.8 in Syria to your name !. This is by no means detrimental, and I already mentioned how impressed I was at this achievement. But as viewed by the “scientific community”, the longer the period between hits… the more this would be deemed as “chance”. However, statistically speaking, I myself and Tayrance have not been making our usual quotas during May, compared to April for instance. I don’t know what Tayrance’s excuse is, but I believe mine is down to bad coffee !. Not been able to get my usual brand due to lock-down… and I am convinced it relates to poor performance 🙂 . Actually, I believe the combination of the sun nearly reaching its summer solstice latitude, and solar minimum conditions, may be giving us false seismic assertions, that we are not accustom too i.e. how many 4.5’s have occurred at my forecast location in Kermadec Islands during the past 20 days ?. My point is the Kermadec Islands does not have a “reputation” for 4.5’s… we are all in the same boat at the moment !
It would be a nice notion to think that someday in the future, our old notes would be gleamed in cyberspace, by scientists or others like ourselves… and find amongst these notes a piece of the missing puzzle. I am a firm believer that whatever theory is employed, they each hold one of the missing pieces. Earthquake theories are only established due to a “little” success. It is being able to repeat this success that is the problem. It is also acceptable to say that once you have had a taste of success, it gives you a boost of confidence, and you continually try for more. And if not kept under control, it becomes addictive like gambling… and one consequence is, your name is the only one on the first page of the forecast forum !… LOL
You have expressed interest in my methodology in this and recent posts, and fully appreciate you doing so. However, if I speak bluntly, this is not a method that will work for anybody without significant committal to key points. It needs a model, it is very labour incentive, and without this kind of reference, my posts are just words and numbers. I have had several students over the years, and with great respect to all of them, most could not afford the time required for research, or did not wish to undergo expense for an unproven theory !
I am going to give you a small task to try, to show you how to determine potential seismic location using my method… and then you can post a 7 day prediction to see if it works for you. The location the following data relates to, has a reputation for frequent 4+ events, as you will determine yourself. I got a 4+ hit at this location recently, but unofficially because I let my short forecast lapse, and it occurred the day after.
On 22nd May at 01:29 UTC, Mt ASO volcano erupted in Kyushu, Japan. At 02:10 UTC (31 minutes later), Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka. If you open two tabs with http://www.timeanddate.com select “Moon Light World Map” in one tab, and “Day And Night Map” in the other. T & D has a problem with inputting odd numbers, so in the moon map input 22nd May 01:28 UTC, and 02:10 UTC in the sun map. You have to make sure the maps seat at the same level, so I usually place a small felt pen mark next to the Fiji Islands at right of map. Flick between the two maps, and look for the place where the setting lunar threshold (SLT) and sunset meet at the same point. Once you have established this, you then load http://www.sunrisesunsetmap.com . From the drop down menu in the map, select “Hybrid”, once you click in the map the time windows will appear. This usually activates as UTC, but clicking on the small globe at bottom right corner gives you time zones.
The SLT and RLT (Rising Lunar Threshold) are calculated as 4 minutes of fore-glow or afterglow at equatorial latitudes, relating to the rising and setting of the moon. Remember, the map states “Moon Light”, it does not represent moonrise or moonset. Taking this into account, the SLT at 01:29 UTC, means that moonset occurred at your determined location 4 minutes earlier at 01:25 UTC. So you now need to place the cursor in the map where moonset occurred at 01:25 UTC, and sunset occurred at 02:10 UTC… and make sure the time panel states 22nd May. This will give you coordinates to your determined location… post 4+, 250 km’s for 7 days and see what happens !
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterMay 22, 2020 at 11:55 pm #8901On 22nd May, Mt Klyuchevskoy volcano erupted in Kamchatka, and Mt Suwanosejima volcano exploded in the Ryukyu Islands… both events occurred at 20:10 UTC. It was moonrise at this time in the Solomon Basin on coordinates 151’02’E – 7’25’S, and the New Britain P.N.G. mainland !
At the time of this post, global volcanic activity during 22nd May was at its highest since 10th April (6)… with a total of 10 eruptions and explosions, from 6 different volcanoes… this was also the day of “New Moon” !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 22, 2020 at 11:28 pm #8900On 22nd May at 02:38 UTC, Mt Ebeko volcano erupted in the Northern Kuril Islands… the SLT was located in the San Francisco Bay Area, south of Santa Rosa. Later this day at 18:11 UTC, Mt Ebeko volcano erupted for a second time… it was sunset on Mt Stromboli volcano in Italy !
Continuing this forecast for 6 days from 23:30 UTC May 22
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 22, 2020 at 4:58 pm #8899Croatia-Mexico correlations… M 6.1 Off Coast of Sinaloa, Mexico 22nd May 08:46:06 UTC
On 23rd April at 07:52:34 UTC, an M 3.5 event occurred in Croatia at 10 km’s depth… and instigated a “felt” response from 1,956 people with EMSC. I used this event in my original analysis above, because it was sunset in the Solomon Basin at this time. However, it was also moonset on the pre seismic M 6.1 Bougainville epicentre of 7th May. On 22nd May at 08:46 UTC, the ATE threshold (Astronomical Twilight Ends) was located on this M 6.1 Bougainville epicentre !
On 13th May at 09:09:45 UTC, an M 3.5 event occurred in Croatia at 10 km’s depth… and instigated a “felt” response from 218 people with EMSC. It was sunset off the East coast of Kamchatka on coordinates 157’22’E – 50’52’N (approx 5 km’s east of my current forecast location !). On 22nd May at 08:46 UTC, the SLT (setting lunar threshold) was located off the East coast of Kamchatka, on the coordinates stated.
On 22nd May, moonset occurred on Mt Ebeko volcano in the Northern kuril Islands at 08:45 UTC !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 22, 2020 at 3:49 pm #8898Interesting scenario… with reference to my previous post !
On 10th April at 06:50:03 UTC, an M 2.5 event occurred in Croatia… the ATE threshold was located on the pre seismic M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 14th April.
On 20th May at 18:28:19 UTC, an M 2.0 event occurred in Croatia… it was sunrise on the post seismic M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre of 14th April.
On 21st May at 18:28 UTC, it was again sunrise on the post seismic M 6.0 Kermadec Islands epicentre… and the moon was located on longitude 108’09’W.
On 22nd May at 08:46:06 UTC, an M 6.1 event occurred Off Coast of Sinaloa, Mexico on coordinates “”108’09’W”” – 22’24’N
Of the volcanoes mentioned in my previous post; on 22nd May, eruptions occurred from Mt Klyuchevskoy, Mt Ebeko, Mt Etna at 02:10 UTC – 02:38 UTC – 03:00 UTC respectively.
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 19, 2020 at 6:34 pm #8883Suspected Quake… M 5.9 Alberta, Canada 2020-05-16 13:37:52 UTC … 119’34’W – 53’49’N
On 17th May at 08:53:45 UTC, an M 4.8 event occurred in Uttar Pradesh, India on coordinates 77’0’E – 29’25’N. According to EMSC records, this was the highest magnitude event to occur in this region in 15 years. And this region has only experienced three 4+ events in the same period. On 16th May at 13:38 UTC, it was sunset in Uttar Pradesh on the M 4.8 epicentre.
On 18th May at 01:11:57 UTC, an M 4.9 event occurred in Kiruna, Sweden on coordinates 20’18’E – 67’51’N. According to EMSC records,this was the first 4+ event to occur in this region since 19th March 2016, and the highest recorded magnitude in 15 years. On 16th May at 10:35:11 UTC, the sun was located on longitude 20’18’E (Solar Noon / High Noon on this epicentre), and it was Moonrise in Alberta, Canada on the coordinates stated above.
On 18th May at 13:48:03 UTC, an M 5.2 event occurred in the Sichuan-Yunnan-Guizuou Region, China on coordinates 103’21’E – 27’18’N. According to EMSC records,this was the first 5+ event to occur in this region since 3rd September 2014. On 18th May at 11:50 UTC, it was sunset on this M 5.2 China epicentre, and sunrise in Alberta, Canada on the coordinates stated above !
This link states “Data supplied by USGS” !
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterMay 17, 2020 at 9:49 pm #8871Counselor,
I just unofficially predicted a 4.6 in Cuba, using two volcanic eruptions… do you have any credible “believable data I can borrow, towards posting an official prediction ?. If I told the media something major may strike Cuba or Haiti, because these events occurred, I would end up sitting beside God, drinking tea… 🙂
Just funning Mark, but you see my point… even my methodology would not be believed !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 17, 2020 at 8:08 pm #8870Hey Mark, sorry for the delay in responding to your main post above, but sometimes we have to deal with “real world” priorities, before time is available for constructive conversation… sure you understand.
I have taken on board what you have said and proposed, but let me ask you this question… how did you feel when you realised a 6.5 event had occurred in Nevada on Friday ?. Usually, first response is to not take your eyes off the number on your computer screen for a few seconds, your brain is trying to accept such a significant magnitude figure event has occurred. Then you start to think; why did I not see signs that this was coming, and you get this sinking feeling that all your seemingly relevant posts on the forum, suddenly become trivial and inconsequential in comparison. However, a short time later, you don’t feel as bad when you realise that several other members working US mainland locations, obviously didn’t see it coming either. Counselor “unofficially” being the exception of course, and I am sure his cat would not have needed the assistance of a cat flap, to leave the house when he awoke Friday morning… if he has one !
The point I am trying to make is that, no matter what kind of methodology was employed… we “all” missed a 6.5 in Nevada. However, and there is always a “however”, this event was not wasted, because it has taught us all a crucial lesson… we are STILL a long way off getting this right. I can fully appreciate your enthusiasm, passion and drive to want to get the job done… because you remind me of “me” when I first got into the quake scene. But the reality is, until we can sustain at least a 70% success rate, even as a group, it would not be practical to assume we could give pre seismic forecasts or warnings to others. And my advice, forget any notions of contacting the media. They have been contacted by people in the past, who claim god warned them in a dream pof impending seismic destruction, or others who have reported seeing the west coast US in their tea leaves… you would not be entertained by them for one minute !
As you have stated yourself, you are still relatively new to this subject, and I can see for myself that you show a lot of promise in getting somewhere with this. But I also believe that this is dependant on which direction you take with respect to methodology. By no means do I wish to sound critical or discouraging, but as best I can to follow your forecasts, I struggle because there is no “data” to back up your determinations. It may be because you have not been here long enough for me to appreciate your style, but wording like “in-fill quake” and “something happened at A, so seismic history shows possibility of something happening at B”. If this style of forecasting has worked for you in the past, then that is a good thing. But if you are talking about approaching establishments like the media in the future… they would regard this as “making assumptions”… because you have not presented credible hard data !
No disrespect intended, and I am always here with help or advice if you need it (if you are still talking to me lol), and Counselor is back on the scene, so I am sure he has tips for you too. As for your proposal, if there is improvement in forecast results in the future, I for one would like to review this idea again !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 17, 2020 at 12:48 am #8863Recent seismic correlations…
15th May 15:18:53 UTC – M 5.1 Kermadec Islands = Moon located on longitude 122’59’W
16th May 03:15:47 UTC – M 5.9 Vanuatu = Sunset in San Francisco Bay Area on forecast coordinates
Forecast has lapsed with 6 days remaining… waiting for ACE contact before proceeding !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 16, 2020 at 5:42 pm #8855No… your not making this up !
M 5.9 somewhere near Cashe, Canada appeared on the USGS map at 13:55 UTC. I had just reached for my pen to log details, and it disappeared in front of my eyes within 30 seconds of appearing. Same event never appeared on EMSC site, so I assumed someone was a little trigger happy after Nevada, and made a mistake.
Realistically, what purpose would it serve to deny the event ever took place ?
Score: 0115 ptslesterMay 16, 2020 at 4:59 pm #8853An observation…
I have noted that on dates 13th – 14th May, seismic activity increased dramatically in the Dominican Republic, with 38 and 18 events respectively. As of the time of this post, only one event has occurred today.
On the volcano scene, a high level eruption occurred from Mt Ibu volcano in Halmahera, Indonesia at 10:25 UTC. And a high impact eruption occurred from Mt Semeru volcano in East Java, Indonesia at 12:45 UTC. As is my usual practice, I make the assumption that these events occurred, due to solar / lunar or threshold correlation with pre seismic anomalies… and therefore try different combinations, to determine possible locations. In the case of Ibu and Semeru, I only found two possibilities…
10:25 UTC – 12:45 UTC corresponds to moonrise / sunrise on coordinates 122’0’W – 42’28’N Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. The fact that I am already forecasting two other locations on longitude 122’W, makes this location an interesting coincidence !
10:25 UTC – 12:45 UTC also corresponds to sunrise and the longitude of the moon on coordinates 75’16’W – 19’50’N South of Guantanamo, Cuba. Taking into account the recent decline in activity in Puerto Rico, and the recent increase in activity in Dominican Republic… this behaviour could indicate a westerly shift in pre seismic energy towards Haiti or Cuba !!
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMay 15, 2020 at 3:14 pm #8840Well done Tayrence… Not an easy task to hit a small target in the middle of a big ocean !
Heads up… I have noted so much data related to Northern Kuril Islands this past week, I am beginning to think the ACE satellite has become tidally locked to Mt Ebeko Volcano !!
It may mean nothing with your method, but I owe you for the offer of “Coffee”… 🙂
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