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115 ptslesterApril 2, 2020 at 7:17 pm #8256
Cyber attack 2nd April…
Retrieved post within 2 minutes instead of anticipated 40 minutes, thanks to clearly explained guidance from fellow forecaster Canyonrat (Mark).
He’s only been here a short while, and not yet proven himself in seismic battle on this site, but is “obviously” good at other things… I’m sure the former is just a question of time… lol
Much appreciated… 🙂
Score: 0115 pts115 ptslesterApril 2, 2020 at 4:06 pm #8252I thought it was something to do with Pi_Seas… because I said I didn’t like cold coffee !
Just kidding buddy… lol
Nice work Mark… we’ve had these kind of attacks before, but not to this extent. I was on at 08:00 UTC, and it took me 20 minutes to backtrack to our posts. Its possible that Ben might be able to delete these, but if not, its now got to be at least a 40 minute slog to get back to where I was this morning. In your case, I suggest you do this and bring your scripts up front again. Your posts are building up a picture, you took a lot of time compiling these, and I know what that’s like… so don’t let your efforts go to waste !
And get yourself a “hot” coffee before you start… 🙂
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterApril 2, 2020 at 9:54 am #7745There are a few places in the world that are more challenging to predict than others… and china is one of them. You know yourself, hitting one in China, especially within a 7 day window, is quite an achievement… so I say “extremely” well done !
P.S. Forecast page appears to be experiencing a cyber attack. Don’t know what the outcome will be, but just in case, I’ll say ” nice doing business with you brother”… 🙂
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 ptslesterApril 2, 2020 at 1:10 am #6983Mt Ebeko Volcano finally erupted at 23:00 UTC 1st April… this one certainly gave me a run for my money !
http://www.volcanodiscovery.com
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterApril 1, 2020 at 6:39 pm #6980Adjustment to forecast…
resetting magnitude range as 5.0 – 6.3
Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 19:00 UTC April 1
Note – data continuing to focus on this region since 25th March. Could signify residual energy, belated aftershock, or anticipated volcanic activity from Mt Ebeko volcano !
Thank you
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 30, 2020 at 8:29 pm #6973Canyonrat,
I got margin + 26 km from 5.2 Pimampiro, Ecuador this morning, but USGS originally posted this as 5.6 event… downgrade occurred aprox 4 hours later. They did this with Hokkaido, and Becca said they also down graded 7.5 Kuril event on 25th. Can’t recall seeing 3 – 4 point adjustments from USGS before… sort of thing EMSC does !. Perhaps they are running a minimum crew for analysis because of the virus. EMSC still has this event listed as 5.6
Missed Pimampiro by a cats whisker , in global terms… teach me for using data, past its “sell by date” 17/1 !
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 29, 2020 at 8:02 pm #6964Continuing this forecast for 5 days from 21:00 UTC March 29
I’ll have to for go official booking on this one (re event… of course !) because period exceeds permissible 20 days allowed. But current data strongly suggests, Loyalty Islands event “may have” repercussions in the Chignik region… or perhaps “Unga Unga” Island at a pinch !
Wouldn’t want to appear as being “too” generous… lol
Thank you
Score: 0115 pts115 pts115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 27, 2020 at 4:43 pm #6948Gravitational influences affect the Oceans because of volume (mass). Not sure if the same influence affects smaller bodies in the same way… but maybe someone could expand on this ?. It may also be interesting to know if the moon influences moisture in our atmosphere ?
I can visualise the Great Plains, and its a nice thought, especially today. I live in a small rural cottage, or out in the sticks as they say. But I have droves of town folk coming past my house, because they think we are on one big holiday… starting to feel claustrophobic !!
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 27, 2020 at 12:03 am #6945Oh! give that man a cigar… gravity is magnetic, I believe that very thing too !. And don’t worry about formal education or scientific vernacular, it is best that we put our deliberations across in “English”, because it would be more coherent to others that want to pursue aspects of this subject, without having to reaching for their dictionary every two minutes. Besides, I got booted off a “real” science website once, for not using correct scientific vernacular… and they called me delusional 🙁
The moon is always a good starting point for any theory that doesn’t adhere to official seismic beliefs. But the problem is, it has been done to death for decades, by people with and without formal papers. General understanding of trying to link the moon to seismic activity, is normally based within a specific time window, prior to an earthquake. I see sites on the web that formulate planetary alignment scenarios, which also includes lunar alignments. And then significant seismic activity is generally forecast within 4 – 5 days. Now planetary alignments are not really my thing (though, I did see my ancestral home once !), but it doesn’t mean I would easily dismiss them. I just think that we should be looking way outside the box… and particularly at the time factor. My thinking is, the moon is having a disruptive influence on a specific location, maybe a month or even two, before occurrence. And then other elements are coming along to finish the job! The other elements I refer too, must be present in the scenarios I described above… something crazy like sub lithosphere electromagnetic anomalies, reacting to solar thresholds transiting above !!
As I mentioned, not pushing this on anyone, just interested to see if another explanation could be found for what is observed… and its not coincidence !
Score: 0115 ptslesterMarch 26, 2020 at 9:10 pm #6943Hey Mark, a meet up at Parkfield on 10th May, sounds like a good idea… don’t know who is going to bring the quake, but last man standing buys the beer :). I will forewarn you, the following has got nothing to do with seismology, so you might find it a little boring !
The reference data I post with my forecasts serves two purposes. Firstly it is for my own records, as I am attempting to workout ephemeral combinations that match specific levels of seismic magnitude. And secondly, they are there for the very purpose you are asking me now. If you are going to predict an earthquake, at a specific location, there has to be reason why you would pick this particular spot. Its easy enough to pick a location on a tectonic or seismic map, and take a chance. But true prediction efforts that result in a successful determination of location, can only be measured by your skill factor. If you have a particular prediction method that produces a noticeable percentage of positive results, and you can “also” submit credible data to back up your claim… it is credited to you, and your “skill factor” increases. Kind of proves your not just pinning the tail on the donkey, and winning the game… once ! I am hoping this archaic forecast of mine from last year, will help provide some credible evidence and reasoning to my hypothesis. And I thought it might make you feel more at home, because it does relate to your neck of the woods… humorous and considerate !
The premise for my hypothesis is ” Significant earthquakes are pre selected by naturally occurring events, and seismic activity across the whole magnitude range, is sustained by self-propagation”… this also includes volcanic eruptions !
I don’t think I want to cover the science aspects just yet, because there are lots of moving parts. And I also have a rule that I don’t push my own theories onto others, unless they request I do so. Most seasoned predictors are institutionalised to their own believes anyway, and become less open minded to other theories… and I probably fall into this category too. It still has gaps, and I believe elements of other peoples methods or theories may hold the key to making it work in its entirety… another reason why I am watching your work.
I think the best thing to do, is cover your inquiry about the Kuril Islands reference data,but I can best do this by providing instruction and directing you to an online tool you can use. It is an observational tool, I provide the data you need to input, then you can “visually” make up your own mind weather my reference data is credible, or weather I am crazy… unless you have already done that ?
Might help if you print this, and then you don’t have to keep changing tabs.
1. Load website http://www.timeanddate.com
2. Select Sun & Moon in the headers
3.select Day and Night Map from the drop down menu
On 18th March at 17:45:38 UTC, an M 6.3 event occurred South of Bali, Indonesia. Below the Day and Night Map there are selection boxes for imputing Year, Month, Day, Hour and Minute. The minute box has a fault which prevents it from holding odd numbers (as compared to even). Input 18th March 2020 – 17:46 UTC in the boxes, and select the green “Change Time” box.
What you should be looking at is a global map displaying the sunrise, sunset and twilight thresholds, in the positions they where, at the time of the 6.3 Bali event. Not sure if you are familiar with twilight zones, but if not, over Europe and West Africa is the sunset threshold (border). Then the first band is Civil twilight, followed by Nautical twilight, Astronomical twilight, and then dark (night). At 03:13:47 UTC on this same day, an M 6.1 event occurred in the region of Sola, Vanuatu. If you look on the map, I can tell you that the ATB threshold (astronomical twilight begins) was located on this 6.1 Vanuatu epicentre… I have epicentres modelled on my own maps. If you follow the threshold North, the map will show that the ATB threshold was also located on the pre seismic M 7.5 Kuril islands epicentre at this time. Remembering these correlations occurred at the point Bali kicked off, my hypothesis would state ” Bali was triggered by ATB threshold contact with post seismic Vanuatu epicentre, resulting in second stage instigation occurring at the pre seismic Kuril Islands epicentre”. This basically means that these combined contacts, awakened a Russian giant !
On 22nd March at 05:24:02 UTC, an M 5.4 event occurred in Croatia. If you go back to the headers again, select Sun & Moon, and then select Moon Light World Map from the drop down menu, input the time and date in the relevant boxes… and select the green Change Time box.
The map should now be displaying relevant moonrise and moonset locations at the time of this Croatia event. However, this map is actually displaying the boundaries of “moon light”, and not a representation of the moon rising or setting on the horizon. The boundaries represent the moons for-glow and afterglow, which calculates as approximately 4 minutes before or after moonrise / moonset at equatorial latitudes. In this moon map, you should see that the border of lunar afterglow, or SLT as I refer to it (setting lunar threshold) was located on the pre seismic M 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre. Therefore, my hypothesis would state ” M 5.4 Croatia triggered by SLT contact with 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre”… Russian giant was hungry after being awakened from his sleep !
One part of my hypothesis that is inconclusive, is that it procures the possibility of specific lunar ephemeral events, up to several days or weeks prior to “selected” seismic occurrence, are responsible for first stage instigation. In this case, the moon selected its target on 15th February. The Ephemeral event I refer to was “Last Quarter” moon phase, which occurred on this day. For the uninitiated, this is when you can see a half moon in the sky at sunrise. I have never found info on when these moon phase events actually begin and end… to the minute. So I resorted to calculating my own lunar ephemeris data using an old 1980’s tool at http://www.fourmilab.ch
On 15th February between times 20:20 UTC – 20:47 UTC, the moon was geocentric on the sunrise threshold… and remained at this position for the duration of this period. The moon kept pace with sunrise until it eventually over took earths rotation. If you input the latter time of 20:47 UTC 15th February in the “sun map” selection boxes (or 20:46 UTC because of odd job problem) the map should show the moon located on the sunrise threshold… and Sunrise occurring on Paramushir Island, Northern Kuril Islands. I have allowed for a 1 – 2 minute margin of error with my calculations, in which case sunrise occurred on the pre seismic 7.5 Kuril Islands epicentre on the last minute of Last Quarter moon phase !
I used several other data sets, along with these correlations, to make final determination before posting my prediction, but these are in graph format, which I can’t post on this site.
On 16th July 2019, an M 4.3 event occurred in the San Francisco Bay area (have a feeling you might have worked this one !). I used it to post my very first volcanic prediction… using the same method as demonstrated. On 20th July, Mt Etna volcano in Sicily erupted, and became my first successful volcano prediction.
I’ll let you source this SF event time to verify it is correct, use the “sun map” and input the data… then workout what San Francisco has to do with Mt Etna volcano ?
Don’t forget to change year in the boxes… and a definite answer on that “crazy” question would be nice 🙂
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 ptslesterMarch 26, 2020 at 12:47 pm #6937Hi Pi_Seas, hope you don’t mind that I convers with you in this thread. Didn’t want to cut into your new posts, because sometimes the recipient of the post may want to print it off as a keep sake… especially if it produces a result. Prediction is a bit of a novelty at first, and I used to do this myself, and managed to paper hang my spare bedroom in the process. Couldn’t do a bedroom with my successful print offs, but nearly got enough to cover my porch… its a small porch !
Excellent posts again, and you have buddied up with me in a couple of places… so your definitely going to hit something this time 🙂 . But I was wondering if you had a specific game plan ?. Your start and finish dates are all in sync, and a friendly suggestion would be that if you was doing multiple short forecast predictions, you could handle them better if they were together in one post. And in the long run, would be easier for others to access their posts too. Tayrence and Becca are good examples of multiple short forecast predicting. Tayrence segregates his choices into different grades… and Becca uses creative colourful formats, and brightens the place up a little for the rest of us. Not saying you should mimic their styles, because you may have your own unique way of doing things. I’m sure that you can appreciate that during the last 18 months or so, there have only been a handful of us posting here… and yes, we have had our differences like old married couples. But we consider ourselves as good guys (and Gals), not requiring mediation because we general sort things out between ourselves. I’m the fool of the bunch, and I think Ben perceivers with me, because I occasionally bring home the goods. My only flaw is that I have a phobia of people in white coats… don’t know why ! But due to the current global crisis we all find ourselves facing, I wouldn’t be surprised that more new members, such as people laid of work (like humours carpenters 🙂 ) that have found themselves with time on their hands, and nothing to do… may engage with us here. You can see from my posts that I work an individual system, but this is because my game plan is a little different from others. My method works with interpretations of changing daily data, and you will notice that my individual post’s are marked up with different dates. Plus, I also try to match volume of predictions with my fellow short forecast predictors. Admittedly, I have had moments when I got sick of the sight of my own name, but I am also an experimentalist. Its more challenging to try and get things right in the public domain, and hoping for success rather than looking the fool… probably past the point of no return on that score !. However, this I do when the forum is a little quieter , but as I said things might get busy. So it might be case of exercising a little consideration in the near future, so peoples coffee’s don’t go cold, because of the time it takes them to find their original post.
You have made an impression with me Pi_Seas, because your magnitude ranges are well thought out, and strategically suited to the regions you have selected. We’ve got a big money prize here open to all members, and we have had 7.5 predictions here in the past for places like the Canary Isles, and even Long Island, New York. But you have shown that you have put passion for this subject before “pot luck” prosperity. However, saying that, you should allow yourself a dabble for the pool now and then, like I do, I had purpose with my last attempt, because I wanted to get roses for my mum on UK Mother’s Day. Have you seen the price of roses lately ?… outrageous 🙂
No offence intended…
This post has received 1 vote up.Score: 1115 pts115 ptslesterMarch 25, 2020 at 11:19 pm #6925Hey Mark, I appreciate the acknowledgement and call back buddy. Yeah I missed out on the big show, but I don’t like to spend a lot on my mother-in-law, so I aimed small !… just kidding 🙂 . I discovered a link several years ago, related to disruptions in global electrical grids prior to significant earthquakes. Nothing that would be noticed during our usual daily routines, or actually observed for that matter. But I constructed a kind of magnetic instrument that reacts differently when there is a slight unbalance in normal current output. And such a reaction was occurring when I rose from bed on Sunday morning (22nd March). I was monitoring online data for about a week prior to this, and it seemed to be focused on Paramushir Island, Northern Kuril Islands. Paramushir Island and the Kamchatka region, are known for being one of the most volcanically active regions on the planet. Volcanoes in the northern region of Kamchatka are as predictable as a 2+ in Hawaii… you only have to blow on them, and they start erupting. A volcano on Paramushir Island called Mt Ebeko, also experiences frequent eruptions, but not as frequent as its northern cousins. The data I was monitoring kept hitting Mt Ebeko, so I posted a forecast accordingly. However, the data started getting “more” significant, and past experience has taught me that this was a bit heavy for a volcano… so, I decided to cover both options with a seismic forecast. Meanwhile, strong atmospheric electric data was guiding me to the Andaman Islands region (going off the chart kind of strong !). I weighed up magnetic reactions, atmospheric data and recent activity from west Java, west coast Sumatra, up to the Nicobar region… and made the wrong assumption that a 7+ event at Andaman was a possibility. A bad call this time I’m afraid, but like I mentioned to “Pi Seas” earlier this week; even with failed attempts, you always learn something new. I’ve learned that next year I will be a little more prepared… and buy flowers for my mother-in-law, instead of dedications 🙂
I hear what your saying about USGS, and I have seen cases were events have been deleted, or not posted at all ( as per EMSC). But USGS is a big player, and you probably know yourself, chasing quakes is a lonely interest… especially when the rest of your buddies are heavy into football or some such sport. Which means on a global scale, there can’t be many of us doing this. Plus we all work many different theories, with several being unrelated to actual seismology. As you say though, worth keeping an eye on, but personally I think any annoyance to them from our small minority, would be like a flee on a dogs back… a bit of an itch, quick scratch and then they move on. It would be unprofessional, and reckless of them to alter or deny accurate seismic data to the public, especially if they have a website for this very reason. In the pursuit of an answer to the earthquake problem, they are equals to ourselves… only, they have got all the seismic toys. They can’t predict earthquakes, and neither can we. Granted, we hit them now and then, but it will only be when we can hit all of them that the problem will be solved. It should be all hands on deck for anybody with a little knowledge in this field. And if the assumption is that they can’t stand an occasional little bit from the likes of us… then that’s their loss !
Sorry for cutting into your forecast thread, didn’t realise you was on a continuous roll… hated that when its happened to me. I’m more of a physics kind of guy than seismology, but your scripts are very informative, kind of like a soap opera… your left wanting to see what happens in the next episode 🙂 Think I will be heading towards Parkfield in the coming month, be interesting if we meet there because it would be like finding two pieces of the puzzle, that actually fit together !!
A man that builds “safe” houses, then spends his time trying to find an answer, for the reason why he has to build “safe” Houses… that truly is big hearted !!
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