This is definitely a statistical hit. The total region on alert represents ~12% of the ring of fire, and that makes this result significant at a high level. The fact that TA has already nailed the forecasting content twice, this third ‘excess magnitude’ event makes for NO QUESTION ABOUT IT… this guy can predict earthquakes.
Bad news. #3 on the contest page:
“3) The magnitude range of the forecast must include M7.5 or higher, and must not go below M6.5.
Magnitude Range Examples: (M6.5 – M7.5 : OK!) (M6.4 – M8.0 : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7+ : OK!) (M6+ : Not OK, minimum range failure) (M7.1 – M7.4 : Not OK, threshold magnitude failure)” – The video on that page explains that to win the $ the magnitude range must not be more than 1.0 magnitude.
— The range for Peru was 6.0 – 8.2, which is a magnitude range of 2.2. This is heartbreaking, I feel it, but at least it does not change the fact that TA is a beast at predicting earthquakes.
I am sorry Becca – but there were a ton of places on alert, 10 actually. While I cannot tell off hand how much of the fault zones are on alert, I CAN tell that the range – 4.5 to 8.5 —is way way too large.
Please review the instructions again – you cannot place this large of a range on the magnitude.
It is a shame too, because this would have won’t the money and the conference tickets for 2020.
This is so painful. If the map cuts the zone off too short. I went to the “felt-it” area on USGS and it too stops about 50mi short. This is the second time you have been within ‘an inch’ of winning again.
